SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Yeah...spread is east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Going to be a LONG next two-three days all. Lots of spread! It seems some of the models have converged on a track well offshore the NC coast - gets fuzzy for MA area. The MA folk are probably biting their nails right now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Ryan’s site has free GEFS members http://wx.graphics/models/gefs/gefs.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Any of the 'left' one-third of those tracks would be sweet hit for RDU. The 'mean' and wide right would be a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Any of the 'left' one-third of those tracks would be sweet hit for RDU. The 'mean' and wide right would be a miss. This is a scenario when us SE Wake folks near JoCo may get something and RDU misses out. Which would be perfectly fine because it is the other way around 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Local grids look like snow for 10-12 hrs mostly after dark with temps falling well into the 20's... Wednesday A chance of rain and snow between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Ryan’s site has free GEFS members http://wx.graphics/models/gefs/gefs.php I guess hope for e1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Tar Heel Snow said: I guess hope for e1 Nope, I don't think any of those members have the final solution. Too much spread between the high res models and the globals. Let's get this energy sampled and then go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Nope, I don't think any of those members have the final solution. Too much spread between the high res models and the globals. Let's get this energy sampled and then go from there. Fair. And one model/ensemble is never going to be perfect. Hence why forecasting is so difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z RGEM is not as extensive (precip wise) as the NAM but close. Might give RDU a couple of inches once it was finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 ^ Low seems farther offshore. I do expect the precipitation progs to expand west (assuming the surface low doesn’t start trending east), as that is a common occurrence. I’m not sure we get the dream scenario of the 3k Nam, though. I said it in the Sanitary thread, but if we could get just one main model to show one run like that, it would be a lot easier to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I see the 18z Navgem shifted the precip field east. But the Icrap came back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Levi Cowan's thoughts on the NAM: https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/947935245990428672 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This is a tough one. The main global models (GFS, CMC, Euro, UKMet) really aren't budging, just minor wobbles. The hi-res NAM and RGEM are sharper with the wave at the base of the trough, bring precip farther inland, and are warmer aloft along the coast (850mb warm nose). Do you say that 1) the hi-res models are too sharp at the base of the trough and will trend SE toward the globals, 2) the globals will become sharper at the base of the trough and trend NW toward the hi-res models, or 3) take a blend? I'm inclined to go with a blend at this time. The areas I like best for snow accumulation are along a line from Lake Moultrie, SC (NNW of Charleston) to Whiteville, NC to Kinston, NC to Greenville, NC to Norfolk, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z RGEM snow forecast posted by Huffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 21z SREF came back down to reality.... only showing a mean of around 1" or so for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 21z SREF came back down to reality.... only showing a mean of around 1" or so for mby. Can some one give a quick background to the SREF? Is it just the ensemble version of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 00z NAM comes out of the gate worse than 18z aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Don't think this run of the NAM will cut it. But we will see. Not alot of phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 17 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Can some one give a quick background to the SREF? Is it just the ensemble version of the NAM? Basically yes, though unlike other ensembles it has two different kinds of models (13 ARW members and 13 NMMB members). The NMMB members are more of a "true" NAM ensemble, though all 26 members are generally considered as a single unit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 lead wave looks slightly weaker and slightly west and second wave looks pretty much the same as 18z at hr15. Neither wave looks quiet as good as 12z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM - lead wave is a little more positive tilt and trailing wave isn't as far SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM with a trend toward the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: NAM with a trend toward the globals Of course. It was on an island. Hopefully, the outer banks get a nice snow. It’s a great climo time for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 So the LP is actually closer to the coast than 18Z yet less precip. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM out here leading people to heartbreak city lol. Guess GFS and ECMWF were right after all. Still sleet and frz at the coast. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Local forecasters calling for up to 3 inches in Berkeley County South Carolina not sure what model they are looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: So the LP is actually closer to the coast than 18Z yet less precip. Interesting It's less amped this run at 500mb. Precip going to snow right close to the coast as it gets going good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, negative-nao said: Local forecasters calling for up to 3 inches in Berkeley County South Carolina not sure what model they are looking at Models mixed with gut intuition from their knowledge and experiences. Something models don’t have. Hoping they’re right for your sake assuming that’s where you’re from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM snowfall for the Southeast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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