downeastnc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 27 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: 958 mb. Blizzard for RDU east if this is right. Would probably last a few more frames as well and we would see totals in the 15- 20" range over most of I-95 to Hwy 17 corridor since the totals are already pushing a 6-12" when this sets up and I imagine snow rates would be ridiculous....that 958 is suspect as hell though realistically its probably 975ish which would fall in line with the other models. MHX NWS first briefing http://www.weather.gov/mhx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 RGEM is closed off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Would probably last a few more frames as well and we would see totals in the 15- 20" range over most of I-95 to Hwy 17 corridor since the totals are already pushing a 6-12" when this sets up and I imagine snow rates would be ridiculous....that 958 is suspect as hell though realistically its probably 975ish which would fall in line with the other models. MHX NWS first briefing http://www.weather.gov/mhx/winter 958 low is insanely suspect. Strengthens 41 mb in 12 hours somehow. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 34 minutes ago, Lookout said: nam showing some near hurricane force winds off shore SnowCane @ Frying Pan Tower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ragtop50 said: I wish, I live right in the middle of that 22.6" blob. That is Cumberland co and no you dont... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I know people know this, but before y'all get your hopes up too much remember that NAM has convective feedback issues. Don't get NAM'd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, SteveVa said: I know people know this, but before y'all get your hopes up too much remember that NAM has convective feedback issues. Don't get NAM'd lol Ok...but I thought that was fixed? What tI'm frame is the Nam trustworthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The NAM freezing rain map puts down some crazy totals too for coastal SC. Looks like around 1"--followed by some snow on the back side and nasty wind. Can we say, "power outages"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, ragtop50 said: Yep, I am in norther Cumberland Just have a feeling that is over done. I hope it is right...good for me...but this looks like a coastal storm to me. Hope that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 folks, let's keep the off topic chatter to a minimum...there are two other threads for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Sometimes when you get NAM’d it actually happens. I was making some similar comments when the NAM showed higher and higher totals as the Dec. event came closer. What an amazing look for Eastern Carolina and parts of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 AKQ AFD...Latest 01/12Z models are into fairly good agreement with the pattern, though some notable differences persist. The ECWMF continues to be a little more aggressive at bringing deep moisture and therefore higher chances for pcpn to the local area while The GFS is slightly driest/farther offshore. The 12Z NAM had some peculiar secondary band NW of the main axis of precip along the coast (and was showing significant accumulating snow into the Piedmont). The 18Z NAM has genly gone away from this idea. Ultimately, will depend on how rapidly the northern stream and southern stream mid/upper level flow can phase, but its beginning to look as if at least SE 1/2 of the CWA will receive significant precip from late wed aftn/evening through Thu morning. Forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS/ECMWF which now brings a period of likely to Cat PoPs (60-80%) into NE NC and SE/eastern VA mainly by Wed evening, gradually shifting off to the NE as the sfc low further intensifies offshore wed night/Thu. Sfc dew pts and therefore very dry air looks to be hard to dislodge farther to the NW, so would anticipate a sharp cutoff in precipitation across NW 1/2 to 1/3 of CWA. Highs Wed mainly in the mid- upper 30s, possibly around 40 far SE. Critical thicknesses support all snow inland, to a changeover to rain or rain/snow mix along the SE coast Wed early evening before a change back to all snow. Mainly a 5th period event, so too early for a watch, but HWO mentions this potential storm and will continue to closely monitor trends on this system. First cut at snow accumulations favor highest amounts over interior NE NC/SE VA and the eastern shore (approximately ASJ to PHF to WAL). Most of this occurring from 00Z to 12Z Thu. Very little model guidance depicts higher snow amounts west of I-95 (even the ECMWF would support little to no snow amounts in the Piedmont). Lows Wed night mainly in the 20s, except upper teens NW. Drying from WSW to ENE on Thu , and will have high chc to likely PoPs until early aftn on the eastern shore, tapered to a dry fcst across SW/W 1/2 of the CWA. Windy and cold with highs mainly ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS still not getting it done.. low looks a little further west though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Got a feeling this thing is getting ready to stop coming west and stay close to where it is now... Eastern Sections, this looks to be your storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 I'm still not sold on this one for the RDU area with the euro and gfs showing the further east solution. I've been nam'd way too many times in the past to trust it. I know it's been better since the upgrade but still have a hard time trusting it...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Models are over-amping the 3rd wave, which hasn't even hit CONUS or Canada yet. This is what is causing the low to move OTS too fast. This will not be kicked out to the magnitude the GFS is portraying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Got a feeling this thing is getting ready to stop coming west and stay close to where it is now... Eastern Sections, this looks to be your storm! This is very premature and as it might be right we have scene recently some huge shifts west just 24 hours before go time. As I hope yall down east get hit good but we are still days away and as pack pointed out the 3rd wave has not even entered the conus yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The GEPS has a stronger atlantic ridge over the GEFS/EPS, that is definitely helping keep the PV low further west along with the SLP. That is one feature that inside 48 hours has helped the NW trend over the past few winters...happened painfully last January, and helped a few weeks ago. If we can get the NAM timing on the SW's and the GEM handling of the atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 GEFS has been trending towards stronger Atlantic ridge but so far nothing showing up for further NW surface impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Yes sir agree. But this is short range or close to it. Can't just dismiss the GFS even if we want to. Can't just accept the meso models...you know w the drill. 0z should be helpful. All the players will be over the US RAOB network by 00z. (Via Eskimo Joe in MA forum) 0z runs tonight are going to be the most important. Be interesting to see if the over amplification of energy piece #3 as SN_Lover mentioned will hold true, or if it will come across weaker. 0z should decide it's fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 AKQ forecast package. Hot off the presses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, JoshM said: High Res NAM bringing the precip inland more than 12k. With the upper level look, I think that's a better representation. Now that would just be cruel to us western peeps! That is pretty impressive though for intercoastal plain. Need that low to form off Miami then hug the FL coast and slam into Charleston, then we'd be in bidness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Hard to expect a better look than this. What a beautiful panel from the NAM 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Hard to expect a better look than this. What a beautiful panel from the NAM 3k And the 3k NAM is one of the better warm nose sniffers right? Looks good for the coastal folks worried about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 And the 3k NAM is one of the better warm nose sniffers right? Looks good for the coastal folks worried about itNot coastal NC. That's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Another shift NW on the GFS ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 6 minutes ago, goldman75 said: And the 3k NAM is one of the better warm nose sniffers right? Looks good for the coastal folks worried about it Not coastal NC. That's rain. Lol continue the run. It transitions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I suspect there isn't a lot of moisture to work with since the normally juicy ocean has been denuded of surface moisture by this stout cold air mass. Otherwise there could be a larger precipitation field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Going to be a LONG next two-three days all. Lots of spread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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