broken024 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Web is convinced this is coming west still and uses lots of big words to explain why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 EPS trend (78hr) is better for our area pack. Big picture def. shows westward movement but I wouldn't read too much into the SE vs NE quantities or orientation there on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 15z SREF continues to deepen the wave.. wow, lookin good @54 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, broken024 said: Web is convinced this is coming west still and uses lots of big words to explain why. Sorry, who is "Web"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 SREF increases again.... Danville with a mean of 3.95". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Can be locked into wrong! 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: EPS trend (78hr) is better for our area pack. Big picture def. shows westward movement but I wouldn't read too much into the SE vs NE quantities or orientation there on that map. I am surprised the surface of the EPS mean isn't better. The member plots look west to me...but it's the EPS it knows best. At hour 54 it's lined up pretty good with the GEPS but then the GEPS takes the lows NNE and EPS takes them more ENE at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: 15z SREF continues to deepen the wave.. wow, lookin good No way It'll ever throw any snow back to me and you! I never get a flake from Atlantic LP................. I would feel pretty good if I where Raleigh to the Coast though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: I am surprised the surface of the EPS mean isn't better. The member plots look west to me...but it's the EPS it knows best. At hour 54 it's lined up pretty good with the GEPS but then the GEPS takes the lows NNE and EPS takes them more ENE at hour 60. Sounding show a tremendous amount of dry air below 700mb back this way. Maybe that's why totals are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: SREF increases again.... Danville with a mean of 3.95". I highly doubt it makes it back this far other than milky cirrus... I think Wilson up to Suffolk, VA could be jackpot for this one taking a compromise of model solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: I highly doubt it makes it back this far other than milky cirrus... I think Wilson up to Suffolk, VA could be jackpot for this one taking a compromise of model solutions I agree if the storm happens as shown per models right now. I just don’t think it’s done coming west, quicker phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: No way It'll ever throw any snow back to me and you! I never get a flake from Atlantic LP................. I would feel pretty good if I where Raleigh to the Coast though!! Unlikely for us, yes. But still fun to watch. Things are still trending though.. maybe I can squeeze out a powdery inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I highly doubt it makes it back this far other than milky cirrus... I think Wilson up to Suffolk, VA could be jackpot for this one taking a compromise of model solutions I still don't think we have seen the final solution yet. It's still coming west, and until that trend stops, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Would someone mind explaining SREF plumes to me? I’m assuming it’s some kind of ensemble model. For Columbia it’s showing a snowfall mean of 1.98 inches. How reputable is this model?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, WintersNotComing said: Would someone mind explaining SREF plumes to me? I’m assuming it’s some kind of ensemble model. For Columbia it’s showing a snowfall mean of 1.98 inches. How reputable is this model? . Their good to use to see trends.... but they are overdone at times imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 15z SREF Snowtotals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, WintersNotComing said: Would someone mind explaining SREF plumes to me? I’m assuming it’s some kind of ensemble model. For Columbia it’s showing a snowfall mean of 1.98 inches. How reputable is this model? . SREF is just starting to come into its range as well as an FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The SREF’s main purpose is to get everyone excited and then pull the rug out. I don’t remember a single time when they trended better for this area up until the event. I do remember a lot of times them showing better and better and better snow progs until about 12-24 hrs out. Then bam! Back to zero. Still, I like seeing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, WintersNotComing said: Would someone mind explaining SREF plumes to me? I’m assuming it’s some kind of ensemble model. For Columbia it’s showing a snowfall mean of 1.98 inches. How reputable is this model? . It’s basically the NAM ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18z NAM slower to develop the low than 12z run through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 15z SREF Snowtotals Woah. Huge west shift from 09Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, beanskip said: 18z NAM slower to develop the low than 12z run through 24. Higher heights over the NE however. More west in future frames? Always good when Bean is here for the runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Hour 33, LP is ever so slightly SW of it's position of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Sorry, who is "Web"?Eric Webber. NCSU Meteorology student. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Regan said: Wral is still making out hard with the euro. They usually stick with gfs or euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: 38 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Sorry, who is "Web"? Eric Webber. NCSU Meteorology student. Hey, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 If anything, the NAM is slightly less amped at hr 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, Regan said: Wral is still making out hard with the euro. they will never go with a storm until the EURO is on board big with it...more specifically EPS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Poimen said: If anything, the NAM is slightly less amped at hr 33. Looks like it amps back up to about the same at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Looks like it amps back up to about the same at 39 More amped through 45. Nam just continues the trend every single Zulu run. Craziness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Good to see it hold true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.