packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Uh oh...Euro what are you doing. Earlier phase may slow it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Heavy snow in SAV and HH at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Until we get rid of this frigid air we will not get a storm. Cold and dry is all we will have until pattern changes. Models will continue to show waves only to watch them disappear in the end. It has been doing this for last couple of weeks and looks to continue. Hopefully I am wrong but saw this in mid 90's as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Southeast of last run but not a disaster. Looks like CMC. Good run for coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 About to get a 95 special on this one! Cloud shield back to RAH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief25 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just out of curiosity, if the gfs had it and euro didn’t, now the euro has is and Gfs doesn’t... wasn’t the gfs that was bad about loosing a system within 5 days.. just to have it reappear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Chief25 said: Just out of curiosity, if the gfs had it and euro didn’t, now the euro has is and Gfs doesn’t... wasn’t the gfs that was bad about loosing a system within 5 days.. just to have it reappear? They both have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief25 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Got ya thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Farther southeast every run. This one is about to be gone too. So much for the “but the Euro has the storm” argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Southeast of last run but not a disaster. Looks like CMC. Good run for coastal areas Looks west of 0z run, well the SLP track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Some snow in Raleigh 150-156. Low is just off Hateras actually. Late bloomer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Grats to Savannah, Charleston, and Fayetteville NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Snow explosion up 95...hammered from NC northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Looks west of 0z run, well the SLP track? Precip shield is SE, but yeah sfc low pulls closer to the coast. Add this one to the list - "the Gulf Stream will keep the low closer to the coast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 A littler earlier phase and this would be great SE storm. It was close on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Precip shield is SE, but yeah sfc low pulls closer to the coast. Add this one to the list - "the Gulf Stream will keep the low closer to the coast" All we need is a little sharper trough, more neutral tilt sooner, boom goes the dynamite!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Not having the UKMet is a negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 The EPS should be interesting. It wouldn't surprise me to see some good storms mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I get my model biases mixed at times--so forgive me, but isn't the EURO prone to be "phase happy" at times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Not having the UKMet is a negative I agree grit. It would be nice to have it close to what the euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, rduwx said: The EPS should be interesting. It wouldn't surprise me to see good storms mixed in. Yep. Also interested to see if the euro will follow suit with the Canadian re: Arctic outbreak next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Not having the UKMet is a negative We got the NAM and soon the DWD Icon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This is a strong phasing/cutoff scenario... An Atlantic coast bomb... Could totally see this one as an Eastern GA/SC/NC special. Given the cold boundary layer conditions. Not ideal for western sections, unless we see some STJ moisture/overrunning waves become involved or drawn in... Will need to watch that... However, as I said yesterday, the setup for next week favors a strong phase/cutoff over the East Coast. Some are looking for a Gulf storm and are confused a bit. This to me looks like more of an Atlantic system/situation with a late phase. If you look back at some sfc maps from Jan 2000, the SLP is actually drawn WNW from offshore towards HAT as it bombs/phases and then rides the coast. Similar to what the Euro is showing. However, given the look of the waves, I think an earlier phase than what it is showing would be likely. Too early to go into details, but should be a fun one to follow perhaps/hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The wave evolution down into the southern plains was a little worse this run, but it saved it at the end a bit. CMC was more SE this run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: The wave evolution down into the southern plains was a little worse this run, but it saved it at the end a bit. CMC was more SE this run too Yep, ridge axis was further east but earlier phase saved it. The ridge axis is a bummer because it can only get so far west even with an ideal phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 It would be cool to see some areas to our east get in on some winter action! It would certainly take the edge off certain members..LOL! Good luck fellas. I don't think this winter will leave many disappointed. It has started out too favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: This is a strong phasing/cutoff scenario... An Atlantic coast bomb... Could totally see this one as an Eastern GA/SC/NC special. Given the cold boundary layer conditions. Not ideal for western sections, unless we see some STJ moisture/overrunning waves become involved or drawn in... Will need to watch that... However, as I said yesterday, the setup for next week favors a strong phase/cutoff over the East Coast. Some are looking for a Gulf storm and are confused a bit. This to me looks like more of an Atlantic system/situation with a late phase. If you look back at some sfc maps from Jan 2000, the SLP is actually drawn WNW from offshore towards HAT as it bombs/phases and then rides the coast. Similar to what the Euro is showing. However, given the look of the waves, I think an earlier phase than what it is showing would be likely. Too early to go into details, but should be a fun one to follow perhaps/hopefully. I was thinking the same thing but hated to throw out the January 2000...LOL! But in all seriousness, with just a little earlier phase this has potential for being a big storm. These are the types that really get my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The caboose is further east than 0z but the shortwave behind it is quicker and it almost catches it and phases, giving you a big hit. Some potential here,just observing for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 That's not too bad of a look on the Euro. Could we see this trend NW or will the HP hold strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Huriken said: That's not too bad of a look on the Euro. Could we see this trend NW or will the HP hold strong? I think the strength of the HP is the golden ticket, if it stays strong it will remain an I-95 special or no storm at all. However, if it weakens a little and is a little more NE we might be in for a major storm if it phases right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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