BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Wow said: A very good read on HM's twitter account wrt to phasing. The reason for more precip further west has been a trend not of more "phasing" but off the southern wave trending stronger and staying separate of the arctic jet. https://twitter.com/antmasiello If this thing comes to us like you said yesterday, I’m going to drive to Mooresville and give you a giant hug. SREF Looks even more impressive than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: If this thing comes to us like you said yesterday, I’m going to drive to Mooresville and give you a giant hug. SREF Looks even more impressive than the NAM. I was just kidding about the I-85 special but just seeing something accumulate here would be a massive surprise based on what we were looking at just yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looking at the SREF, you can clearly see the trend of the western ridge growing taller and our s/w digging farther south. This is what's going to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wow said: A very good read on HM's twitter account wrt to phasing. The reason for more precip further west has been a trend not of more "phasing" but off the southern wave trending stronger and staying separate of the arctic jet. https://twitter.com/antmasiello That is an awesome read. I believe the qpf shield is going to be much more expansive than currently progged on the west side. Especially with a low as strong as depicted. Will be interesting to see what comes to fruition in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NW trends are amazing on the GFS ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Euro out to 45, just small differences...think it will have a little more precip inland, but not much...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Looking at the SREF, you can clearly see the trend of the western ridge growing taller and our s/w digging farther south. This is what's going to do it Should we rely on the NAM and RGEM and SREF, now, instead of Globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Seeing some February '73 type amounts for portions of SC on these models. Would be pretty wild if it comes to fruition. yeah that crossed my mind too. wish something like that happened again...my area managed to get around 6 inches but of course that was a different setup and all with a low that popped much sooner but it sure seems like there is an increasing likelyhood of something truly special at least up to an augusta to columbia line. It's going to be quite a scene though in southeast ga and sc with freezing rain accumulations followed by significant snow. Whatever falls is going to stick around a while. 1 minute ago, Wow said: I was just kidding about the I-85 special but just seeing something accumulate here would be a massive surprise based on what we were looking at just yesterday. Yep...same here. I'd consider it a big win if i saw even a dusting. I didn't think there was much chance of anywhere besides the immediate coast had a shot of anything meaningful until recently. As cold as temps are aloft, it won't take much liquid to get a good coating for those of us well inland if we can manage to get precip....assuming these far west solutions verify and that trends continue our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Should we rely on the NAM and RGEM and SREF, now, instead of Globals? Moreso now, but yes I would as we get within 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On the 12z ECMWF I think through 48 the western ridge is much taller and could allow the s/w to dig more. Looks like a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks like a slight west shift w precip on the euro. Snow from chs up to myrtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 EURO is well east of OBX w/ surface low at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Euro has had more or less been the same 3 runs in a row. Solid snows far eastern NC. Best model inside day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, packbacker said: Euro has had more or less been the same 3 runs in a row. Solid snows far eastern NC. Best model inside day 3. Yep, we keep waiting for it to make a move, but the fact that it’s not us pretty telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: EURO is well east of OBX w/ surface low at 72 hours. Trends my friend, trends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Euro has had more or less been the same 3 runs in a row. Solid snows far eastern NC. Best model inside day 3. The SLP was definitely West this run. Gives more credence to the NAM versus GFS or CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Shifted West Though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Looks like a western trend at the surface level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Yep, we keep waiting for it to make a move, but the fact that it’s not us pretty telling. GFS and Euro are close. Always a long shot to get it back to us but it does look like a solid event for the eastern Carolinas. Hopefully we get a chance later in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Needs another 150 mile southwest and it will be good. Not sure that’s doable. But it’s worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro has had more or less been the same 3 runs in a row. Solid snows far eastern NC. Best model inside day 3. i see this thrown around so much that it actually bugs me. the euro busts quite often inside 3 days just like everything else but for some reason people never remember them. Just a few weeks ago, it had areas that got a foot of snow in georgia getting no more than a dusting, if that, 48 to 72 hours out. Euro folks must have a hell of a PR team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 All the models are blinking to the NAM. Too funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: The SLP was definitely West this run. Gives more credence to the NAM versus GFS or CMC. When it passes us. Qpf and slp at hour 60-66 have been consistent the past few runs. Really looks close to 12z yesterday. Will windshield wipe next couple of runs, but don’t see any trend on the Euro for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, packbacker said: When it passes us. Qpf and slp at hour 60-66 have been consistent the past few runs. Really looks close to 12z yesterday. Will windshield wipe next couple of runs, but don’t see any trend on the Euro for us. No model is windsheild wiping. Every model is trending NW with the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: i see this thrown around so much that it actually bugs me. the euro busts quite often inside 3 days just like everything else but for some reason people never remember them. Just a few weeks ago, it had areas that got a foot of snow in georgia getting no more than a dusting, if that, 48 to 72 hours out. Euro folks must have a hell of a PR team. I was just reading Grits model verification thread...looks like CMC and UK won that one. Those are close, further west with qpf then GFS and Euro. So it’s... NAM/UK/JMA/CMC vs Euro/GFS. Should be a good battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, SN_Lover said: No model is windsheild wiping. Every model is trending NW with the SLP. It may be windshield wiping but the windshield wipers are on an school bus at the highest speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: No model is windsheild wiping. Every model is trending NW with the SLP. Look at hour 60 of Euro and compare past few runs. GEFS qpf went east. Don’t just hug the NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, packbacker said: I was just reading Grits model verification thread...looks like CMC and UK won that one. Those are close, further west with qpf then GFS and Euro. So it’s... NAM/UK/JMA/CMC vs Euro/GFS. Should be a good battle. Don't forget the NAVGEM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, packbacker said: I was just reading Grits model verification thread...looks like CMC and UK won that one. Those are close, further west with qpf then GFS and Euro. So it’s... NAM/UK/JMA/CMC vs Euro/GFS. Should be a good battle. Smart money on the non euro camp so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It may be windshield wiping but the windshield wipers are on an school bus at the highest speed. I must be blind then to not see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.