Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 mm of precip for Raleigh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Wow that has precip into the upstate where some said it would never go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Year! Here's to the first storm of 2018. May everyone see snow soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 1 mm of precip for Raleigh! But the ratios...;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 People need to remember to look at 5H and dynamics more than QPF fields at this range. Get a neutral to negative tilt around the LA to Pensacola area and there will be qpf more than just along the coast. Models don’t handle those dynamics very well this far out but it’s why you see some of the better globals like the UK and Euro more inland with the precip vs the GFS and CMC. Expect a much wetter trend as we get within 48 hours imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: People need to remember to look at 5H and dynamics more than QPF fields at this range. Get a neutral to negative tilt around the LA to Pensacola area and there will be qpf more than just along the coast. Models don’t handle those dynamics very well this far out but it’s why you see some of the better globals like the UK and Euro more inland with the precip vs the GFS and CMC. Expect a much wetter trend as we get within 48 hours imo. Even best case scenario, barring major shifts west, I think the precip edge is likely RAH to Orangeburg and East. Coastals don't work for CLT and West, 99.989/100! Think 95 East, gets crushed, if trends hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 When looking at Ukie qpf 7.5 is about .30(right on the immediate coast) 5 is about .20(little further inland) 2.5 is about .10(furthest inland) Basicially you want to be in the lighter green or darkest blue for better qpf.Bigger totals just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Wow that has precip into the upstate where some said it would never go... Won't make it here! Bet on that! I didn't get a sprinkle from Matthew, so that's how good coastals work here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Here’s the detailed map of the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The Ukie is digging that shortwave even deeper on the KS/CO border now at 42 but the phaser piece is slower.if that speeds up with that shortwave that deep good grief someone's gonna get a bomb. Fun to track though either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Euro with a sharp cutoff but nice snows for Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Euro with a sharp cutoff but nice snows for Eastern NC. Fast forward a lil bit to the 92 hour. Increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 For those interested, here are the RGEM ensembles at 72 hours. That’s as far as they go out but some interesting looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6z NAM keeps the dream alive - earlier phasing (hr 42) and almost a major storm for central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Now that's a west trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 That’s a thing of beauty for the Myrtle beach area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The NAM is definitely onto something! It has the trough picking up the system literally and pulling it into the Carolinas then going back OTS. If this trend holds true the Carolinas could see record breaking snow totals. #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, JoshM said: Now that's a west trend This will be amazing to see! NAM is really spoiling me rn. I really hope that trough pulls that storm into the coast like it’s saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, ajr said: 6z NAM keeps the dream alive - earlier phasing (hr 42) and almost a major storm for central NC If that thing phases early it’s gonna bring record breaking snow for the Carolinas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 NAM picks up a piece of energy from the Gulf when its off the east coast. This part could be a lot wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 It will ride the coast. Winter storms dont take tropical cyclone tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It will ride the coast. Winter storms dont take tropical cyclone tracks Great point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Look at these totals! Outlier or trend? We’ll see what GFS says in about 40 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, zacharylane3 said: Look at these totals! Outlier or trend? We’ll see what GFS says in about 40 min. Mostly sleet 95 east I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Nobody should really be that surprised to see this trend given the past few years, also the nam has been the model that tends to show its hand first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Snovary said: Nobody should really be that surprised to see this trend given the past few years, also the nam has been the model that tends to show its hand first. Well, we almost had a snow storm at the coast. Will likely be another sleet fest if NAM is right. Classic stuff. Congrats may be in order lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Mostly sleet 95 east I believe. Too cold for sleet. May start as sleet but gonna change over no matter where you are in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6z NAM at 48 hrs was slightly more amped than the 00z NAM, especially along the 546DM contour. It shifted the precip 100 miles west. 546dm seems to be the area of the jet east coast snowstorms are most sensitive too. Edit. ALSO 250mb Jet streak in the nrn US was more N-S oriented than prior runs at 36hrs. Could not see deduce this at all on H5 maps, they seemed less amped until 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Amped said: 6z NAM at 48 hrs was slightly more amped than the 00z NAM, especially along the 546DM contour. It shifted the precip 100 miles west. 546dm seems to be the area of the jet east coast snowstorms are most sensitive too. Edit. ALSO 250mb Jet streak in the nrn US was more N-S oriented than prior runs at 36hrs. Could not see deduce this at all on H5 maps, they seemed less amped until 48hrs. Do you think this will be a trend or do you think the NAM is overdoing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.