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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

rduwx

By rduwx,
in Southeastern States

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Wow said:

Earlier phase... get this sucker going negative faster and will pull in the SLP close to the coast.

That's the best hope. THis is going to be a pure atlantic Storm. So our best hope would be for a SLP to spark just off of FLA and be pulled towards the coastline as it phases aloft and tilts negative.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Wow said:

Oh its bombing out now at 84.. 986 mb about 100 miles SE of ILM

More like 200-250 miles SE of ILM.......its also about even with Savannah so a NE motion from there would be perfect for eastern NC this NAM run was very Dec 1989 as far as places that see snow ( Savannah, Charleston, ILM, Morehead etc ) the real question is just how under done the NW precip shield is and how much further NW can this actually come....the Savannah/Charleston crowd need to hope that it stays where it is. 

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

NAM just took a 75m NW shift. Could easily happen again. The pattern aloft would actually argue for a slightly further NW slp reflection on the NAM at 18z, however, the boundary layer conditions are so cold, the baroclinic zone further SE than it traditionally would be. 

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SEwakenosnowforu

SEwakenosnowforu

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The 18z NAM is showing some snowy love to portions of N FL and SE GA!  Not something you see everyday!  I’m starting to think Jacksonville might have a decent shot at their first snow in a long time, though I fear I might be too far west for it in Tallahassee.

If it snows anywhere in FL AGAIN and I see nothing...I vomit again.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

This is what I feared. What does it take to just get snow at the coast of the SE? Is there some type of warm sheet over it? This set up seems ideal and still struggling. Weird to me how that seems to be always the case.

No cold HP, storm to the SE rather than the E or NE.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

This is what I feared. What does it take to just get snow at the coast of the SE? Is there some type of warm sheet over it? This set up seems ideal and still struggling. Weird to me how that seems to be always the case.

Pretty stout warm nose/layer between roughly 825mb and 975mb over north florida and 825mb to 950mb in southeast ga. Here is a sounding for the area just west of jacksonville.  

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1014    37  -0.9  -2.2  91  1.3  -1.4 311   8 271.1 271.7 271.0 279.7  3.19
  1 1000   147  -2.3  -3.0  95  0.6  -2.6 312  12 270.8 271.3 270.6 279.1  3.06
  2  950   558   2.0   1.7  98  0.3   1.8 354  29 279.2 280.0 277.5 291.7  4.54
  3  900   998   5.8   5.5  98  0.3   5.6  50   6 287.5 288.6 283.5 305.2  6.29
  4  850  1464   3.0   2.7  98  0.3   2.8 169   7 289.2 290.2 283.3 304.8  5.46
  5  800  1952  -0.6  -0.9  98  0.3  -0.8 211   9 290.5 291.3 282.7 303.4  4.46
  6  750  2466  -3.1  -3.4  98  0.3  -3.3 188  10 293.2 293.9 283.3 304.8  3.96
  7  700  3009  -5.7  -6.2  96  0.5  -5.9 192  18 296.2 296.8 284.0 306.5  3.44
  8  650  3588  -8.8  -9.4  95  0.6  -9.1 206  30 299.0 299.5 284.5 307.7  2.87
  9  600  4203 -12.2 -13.3  92  1.0 -12.6 216  37 301.9 302.4 284.9 309.1  2.29
 10  550  4864 -16.1 -17.3  90  1.2 -16.4 230  40 305.0 305.3 285.6 310.7  1.79
 11  500  5574 -21.4 -23.0  87  1.6 -21.7 226  45 307.0 307.2 285.7 310.9  1.20

 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Beware of the warm nose already being picked up at the 925mb layer by the NAM. Upper levels are cold but the boundary level has issues right above the surface. This is for Greenville, NC  

 

4C94C3FC-0615-4717-9B5E-718FADBD257B.png

Well we just have to hope that NAM is overdone with this, it ALWAYS has a warm nose at 925.....we never EVER get snow chances here without this threat...every big snow we ever got here has this threat looming over our heads but the NAM isnt always right with the warm noses.....I will take my chances with the warm nose and a track 100 miles closer to the coast, versus no storm at all. 

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

The leftover cold air is strong, but there's no cold air supply, per se. Also that's surface, not 900 or 800 mb. Warm nose is well above that.

Melting aloft is a limiting process, dependent on the depth of the nose. Around here we are used to toasty, and an inflection point that sets up to the west.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Pretty stout warm nose/layer between roughly 825mb and 975mb over north florida and 825mb to 950mb in southeast ga. Here is a sounding for the area just west of jacksonville.  


LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1014    37  -0.9  -2.2  91  1.3  -1.4 311   8 271.1 271.7 271.0 279.7  3.19
  1 1000   147  -2.3  -3.0  95  0.6  -2.6 312  12 270.8 271.3 270.6 279.1  3.06
  2  950   558   2.0   1.7  98  0.3   1.8 354  29 279.2 280.0 277.5 291.7  4.54
  3  900   998   5.8   5.5  98  0.3   5.6  50   6 287.5 288.6 283.5 305.2  6.29
  4  850  1464   3.0   2.7  98  0.3   2.8 169   7 289.2 290.2 283.3 304.8  5.46
  5  800  1952  -0.6  -0.9  98  0.3  -0.8 211   9 290.5 291.3 282.7 303.4  4.46
  6  750  2466  -3.1  -3.4  98  0.3  -3.3 188  10 293.2 293.9 283.3 304.8  3.96
  7  700  3009  -5.7  -6.2  96  0.5  -5.9 192  18 296.2 296.8 284.0 306.5  3.44
  8  650  3588  -8.8  -9.4  95  0.6  -9.1 206  30 299.0 299.5 284.5 307.7  2.87
  9  600  4203 -12.2 -13.3  92  1.0 -12.6 216  37 301.9 302.4 284.9 309.1  2.29
 10  550  4864 -16.1 -17.3  90  1.2 -16.4 230  40 305.0 305.3 285.6 310.7  1.79
 11  500  5574 -21.4 -23.0  87  1.6 -21.7 226  45 307.0 307.2 285.7 310.9  1.20

 

In my experience, the NAM does a pretty good job at nailing these mid- and low-level warm noses, too.

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Well we just have to hope that NAM is overdone with this, it ALWAYS has a warm nose at 925.....we never EVER get snow chances here without this threat...every big snow we ever got here has this threat looming over our heads but the NAM isnt always right with the warm noses.....I will take my chances with the warm nose and a track 100 miles closer to the coast, versus no storm at all. 

That’s what was said last January and we know how that turned out. The nam is incredibly good at finding warm noses. It is at the end of its range and will all depend on the final track but seeing the ice this far out is a bit concerning. It is a shallow warm nose though so wouldn’t take much to cool that layer. 

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SENC

SENC

Posted
Posted

I very graciously thank the Mods for letting Me post..

Bless you all, Happy New Year.. 

To add to the Disco.. I present the WILM AFD

OUR Local NWS guy is retiring today! 

His write-up..

This last shift of 2017 He is retiring, great Job! brings an exciting but challenging forecast
for the Carolinas.

Cold air in place across 2/3 of the nation will
persist and be repeatedly reinforced through the week, and 850mb
temperatures are forecast to remain below 0c locally through next
weekend. A prolonged Arctic outbreak of this magnitude is rare, and
if 850mb temps to plummet to -15c or more later this week, that will
be one of only a few handfuls of times that has occurred according
to Storm Prediction Center sounding climatology for kchs.

The continued cold air and longwave trough across the east will manifest as temperatures through the extended likely not reaching 40 in many places any
day until Sunday. With highs also expected to remain below 40
Monday and Tuesday, that would give US 7 consecutive days with
highs at 40 or below, tied with January, 1918 for the second
longest streak in history at ilm (8 in Feb 1895).

Regardless of whether this comes to fruition or not, an exceedingly cold,
nearly historic, week is forecast with mins 20 or less every
night and averages running about 15-20 degrees below climo for
the week.

With cold air in place, any storm system would bring the potential
for frozen precipitation locally, and we may have that setup for
Wednesday. Guidance is coming into good agreement about a coastal
low passing well east of the Carolinas late Wednesday.

Although this system is well displaced from the local area, this keeps the cold
air in place, and as the main shortwave hangs back within the
longwave trough, an inverted trough is progged to develop to the northwest
of the main surface low.

This occurs in conjunction with veering 850mb winds as secondary low development occurs at this level closer to the coast, driving increasing moisture into the column.
Examination of forecast time-heights shows moderate Omega lifting
into the dendritic growth zone while subtle folding of Theta-E
surfaces is also noted near and just off the coast. This all points
toincreasing potential for wintry precip Wednesday aftn/evening,
exiting to the NE Wednesday night.

MOS p24 numbers have come up this aftn, and the trend is definitely more moist with nearly all GFS ensemble members now showing some snow at ilm. After coordination with neighbors have pushed pop westward somewhat and increased to
mid-chc along the coast.

Although a weak warm nose of +1 - 1.5c is noted initially, dynamic
cooling is expected thanks to lift above this layer promoting snow
falling through the warm nose. This suggests most of the precip will
fall as snow, with ice pellets likely at onset as well. Although guidance
does produce accumulations, with surface air temps in the upper
30s at onset, it being d4, and guidance just beginning to ramp
up the potential, have opted to leave out any snow accum at this
time and will address this potential with later updates. Either
way, some wintry precipitation is becoming more plausible for
Wednesday, exiting to the NE Wed night.

Again TY Mods..
 

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