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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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Good to know that NW trend still exists. Now watch this turn into a coastal hugger and dump 3" of nice cold rain on MBY lol

In all seriousness, I like where I stand as of 12z runs...a miss for Tidewater (and east of I-95 in general) is becoming less and less likely. Would be nice to get climo (5-6") before the end of first week of Jan. 

Just saw Pack's Euro snowfall map...I'm in the bullseye 5 days away. Damn it!

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1 minute ago, SteveVa said:

Good to know that NW trend still exists. Now watch this turn into a coastal hugger and dump 3" of nice cold rain on MBY lol

In all seriousness, I like where I stand as of 12z runs...a miss for Tidewater (and east of I-95 in general) is becoming less and less likely. Would be nice to get climo (5-6") before the end of first week of Jan. 

Just saw Pack's Euro snowfall map...I'm in the bullseye 5 days away. Damn it!

4 days out...you should be in a good spot.  Might be chasing to Norfolk.

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21 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

Good to know that NW trend still exists. Now watch this turn into a coastal hugger and dump 3" of nice cold rain on MBY lol

In all seriousness, I like where I stand as of 12z runs...a miss for Tidewater (and east of I-95 in general) is becoming less and less likely. Would be nice to get climo (5-6") before the end of first week of Jan. 

Just saw Pack's Euro snowfall map...I'm in the bullseye 5 days away. Damn it!

You're  in bulls-eye <4 days out but its still not a good place to be, even on the Euro with the vorts in question not yet onshore and RAOB sampled. There are still going to be some shifts before things start to settle down tomorrow at 12z.  We are not that far (3-6hrs in timing) from taking a moderate band of snow down the Coastal Plain in to SC with a heavy snowfall in NE NC and SE VA.  I was able to dig up some 2010 vort maps, one would argue this is going to be east of that event but not my much when taking in to account the ridge axis out west. 

The backside vort in 2010 was however in a much more favorable position to phase with the leading shortwave, plus there was not energy trailing out which is the reason for a current double barreled look.  Some of said the leading energy is feedback, it very well could be, but is looks like enhancement of a coastal frontal boundary along the Gulf, with the leading shortwave not catching a weak surface reflection off the EC of FL in time.  One would want to see this feature weaken over the next 24-48hrs, along with a turn to a slight neg tilt of the primary shortwave west of the FL Panhandle. The NW trend is real, we are seeing some significant jumps for a 96hr lead but lets not forget the minor NW adjustments we usually see inside 48hrs.  

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30 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

Good to know that NW trend still exists. Now watch this turn into a coastal hugger and dump 3" of nice cold rain on MBY lol

In all seriousness, I like where I stand as of 12z runs...a miss for Tidewater (and east of I-95 in general) is becoming less and less likely. Would be nice to get climo (5-6") before the end of first week of Jan. 

Just saw Pack's Euro snowfall map...I'm in the bullseye 5 days away. Damn it!

VAB climo is 5-6"?

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6 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said:

Awesome. Euro shows about an inch of snow for Waycross. Really rooting for this one back home.

Same here...although in my case My nephew moved to savannah recently to take a job and because he hates cold and snow...so I'm seriously hoping he is doing to be blasted lol

In all seriousness though, i hope south ga and the coast cashes in. Given the trends it seems like there is a pretty good chance...at least right now...that accumulating snow will fall in southeast Ga at least.  Depending on timing and how exactly it plays out, there is a decent shot of something frozen or freezing falling in north/northeast florida too. Temps are cold and dewpoints are low just inland and it seems likely that if there is something falling wednesday morning it could be wintery there. At the bare minimum it's going to be a very cold day around those parts where it's probably not going to get out of the 30s for highs.  

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6 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

VAB climo is 5-6"?

I couldn't find NTU's average, but ORF averages 5.8" annually. It can be found at the last page of this file http://www.weather.gov/media/akq/climateRECORDS/ORF_Climate_Records.pdf

ORF is usually more representative of my location because it's about 2 miles away from MBY. I believe the average goes down to about 3" as you get to Sandbridge/Back Bay. 

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