packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Navgem just won’t quit trying. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2017123112&prod=prp&tau=090&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Navgem just won’t quit trying. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2017123112&prod=prp&tau=090&set=All So that's still a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 17 minutes ago, WidreMann said: It's likely we'd have a westward shift with the s/w as we get closer, which could kick off the low a little further west. Could be enough to get CLT with some snow? But I think you are right that it's unlikely that CLT gets a lot. Even RDU getting more than a small amount is pretty low chance right now. If we could get that scenario then I would feel much more confident. I just don’t know if we have such a significant model error left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, packbacker said: Navgem just won’t quit trying. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2017123112&prod=prp&tau=090&set=All This is what you want to see more of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: If we could get that scenario then I would feel much more confident. I just don’t know if we have such a significant model error left. For any other kind of setup I'd be 100% no for us, but with this, esp. after seeing Jan 2000 take place, I'm more like 90% no. This is all about seeing a hardcore phase.. the earlier the better for us inland folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wow said: For any other kind of setup I'd be 100% no for us, but with this, esp. after seeing Jan 2000 take place, I'm more like 90% no. This is all about seeing a hardcore phase.. the earlier the better for us inland folk. It just has to be such a perfect setup for us to ever feel any effects from a coastal. FWIW, the SREF isn’t totally dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: It just has to be such a perfect setup for us to ever feel any effects from a coastal. FWIW, the SREF isn’t totally dry. Right, it would basically have to hug the coast. Still unlikely but can't help but follow this one. Hopefully someone really cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GEFS is locked in tight over the past few runs. At 78 things don't look to bad, SLP just off Florida looks like it wants to head NNE to just east off HAT with how the isobars are bending. There is a ridge to it's NE and low to its NW but... then at 84 it heads ENE at 45 degree angle. We sure can screw up a potential snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Well the UK precip is good for Eastern NC on the 12z run. Wouldn’t take much to get better totals inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, snowlover91 said: Well the UK precip is good for Eastern NC on the 12z run. Wouldn’t take much to get better totals inland. Nice....that's a big shift from the 0z and not far from it's 12z yesterday run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Well the UK precip is good for Eastern NC on the 12z run. Wouldn’t take much to get better totals inland. How does that compare to 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 UK at 60-72...again looks ominous. Digging the lead wave into central Tx. It has separated from the NE low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Well the UK precip is good for Eastern NC on the 12z run. Wouldn’t take much to get better totals inland. Can someone enlighten me on the precip along the eastern escarpment in WNC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 someone post the ensemble members of the 12z gfs snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ukie looks interesting at 60-72,driving that shortwave further southwest into OK, TX,Even had precip breaking out over southern Louisiana by 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 UK looks to actually be brewing a gulf low at 72, convection over the southern LA. It's great we live in the stone ages with the UK model, no 84 panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Can someone enlighten me on the precip along the eastern escarpment in WNC? Models are keying in on some moisture developing over the area this afternoon. Could produce a surprise dusting or a bit more per UKMET. Heres the precip map for the next 18 hrs. Appears to fall as all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: UK at 60-72...again looks ominous. Digging the lead wave into central Tx. It has separated from the NE low too. You'd like to see the phasing wave over E South Dakota behind (more to the west of) the lead wave in OK in order to get more height rises in the SE. 12z GFS improved in this regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, griteater said: You'd like to see the phasing wave over E South Dakota behind (more to the west of) the lead wave in OK in order to get more height rises in the SE. 12z GFS improved in this regard Reminds me of boxing day where the trailing wave needed to dig west a little more. You have graphics from that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 That second shortwave is making landfall tomorrow morning. There are a few RAOB stations in northern BC, so they should be able to sample the wave well enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: You'd like to see the phasing wave over E South Dakota behind (more to the west of) the lead wave in OK in order to get more height rises in the SE. 12z GFS improved in this regard In 2010 the backside parcel was much more discrete and phasing occurred over the NW Gulf Coast, just east of the Mississippi. I have RAP graphics somewhere I will try to dig up. If memory serves entry points in to CONUS for both vorts were slightly west of what is being showed here, the leading vort was also a good bit stronger than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: someone post the ensemble members of the 12z gfs snow maps? I second this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I second this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: In 2010 the backside parcel was much more discrete and phasing occurred over the NW Gulf Coast, just east of the Mississippi. I have RAP graphics somewhere I will try to dig up. If memory serves entry points in to CONUS for both vorts were slightly west of what is being showed here, the leading vort was also a good bit stronger than this one. Oh yeah, lead wave was a juicy southern streamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GEPS came in a little west...has 0.1 almost to Raleigh and 0.2" QPF back to 95 from the crude maps I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: Reminds me of boxing day where the trailing wave needed to dig west a little more. You have graphics from that? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us1225.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us1226.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 These are the storms I like when I live in SE Wake almost to the JoCo line. It is usually my friends up in NW Wake who get all the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us1225.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us1226.php Ive never understood how to decipher those graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Euro coming in deeper and slightly more west. Waiting for that 96 hour frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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