Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: By 60, GFS is most certainly phasing earlier and further west than the NAM possibly The n/s has one hell of a dig on the backside this run, thus allowing this thing to get ready to go full nuke mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 At 84 GFS has precip maybe a bit further inland a bit.....actual its a big difference compared to last run snow back to I 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Nice coastal snow for NC/SC at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS should be mighty close this run looking at H5 at 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS run looks best in Wilmington area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Close but doesn't really wrap up the energy .. this is a partial phase as it passes across our area. We want to see a full throttle phase to make this thing bomb like crazy off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 not bad... id be willing to bet further runs continue to bring this west, weve seen it plenty of times before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 One thing about the 12z NAM (compared to the GFS), is the last two frames you can see the low moving almost due north (not out to sea). This would potentially put many in play as it nears the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 looks like a general 2-4" hit for eastern NC and NE SC all the way to the beaches......so we need a NW trend just not to much of one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Deform band over RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12z CMC - not as much coastal precip as GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: Deform band over RDU Trends trends trends...this is tantalizingly close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It lost the double barrel low and based on the isobars at 87 hours there is some evidence it wants to tuck the dominant surface low further to the wsw, which would be closer to the natural baroclinic zone from the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: One thing about the 12z NAM (compared to the GFS), is the last two frames you can see the low moving almost due north (not out to sea). This would potentially put many in play as it nears the coast. This! I was trying to explain this to @packbacker wrt the Nam and the due north movement. That is what we need at this stage of the game! That is one heck of a setup to swing and miss on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z CMC - not as much coastal precip as GFS it has snow in southern la...and possibly new orleans though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: It lost the double barrel low and based on the isobars at 87 hours there is some evidence it wants to tuck the dominant surface low further to the wsw, which wwould be closer to the natural baroclinic zone from the Gulf Stream. I've been wondering what effect the gulf stream has on storms like this, seems like models are forming the storm right over it but then it gets pulled out... I know this has been brought up during previous storms but I cant remember what the conclusion was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I've been wondering what effect the gulf stream has on storms like this, seems like models are forming the storm right over it but then it gets pulled out... I know this has been brought up during previous storms but I cant remember what the conclusion was. Lows tend to amplify as they hit the gulf stream. We've seen it plenty of times with tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Trends trends trends...this is tantalizingly close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: 3 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: I've been wondering what effect the gulf stream has on storms like this, seems like models are forming the storm right over it but then it gets pulled out... I know this has been brought up during previous storms but I cant remember what the conclusion was. Lows tend to amplify as they hit the gulf stream. We've seen it plenty of times with tropical cyclones. well yea but I meant wrt track of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It was closer...close as it’s been. To bad UK is big miss 0z on top and 12z on bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 well yea but I meant wrt track of the lowIf I remember correctly they seem to go NNE then NE and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: It was closer...close as it’s been. To bad UK is big miss 0z on top and 12z on bottom I dont know... I wish I could see some verification scores, I feel like the uk hasn't been so hot this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: I dont know... I wish I could see some verification scores, I feel like the uk hasn't been so hot this winter Still 72+ hours away, need some magic with the GEFS and Euro/EPS to give some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 36 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: not bad... id be willing to bet further runs continue to bring this west, weve seen it plenty of times before Just 100 mile shift NW would probably give central NC decent snow. We've had larger shifts than that, and shifts of half that magnitude the day of. How many times did we expect the main snow band to be over the NW piedmont only to end up in Tennessee and VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just need this to shift nw 50 miles a day and we may get snow back to clt/rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Just 100 mile shift NW would probably give central NC decent snow. We've had larger shifts than that, and shifts of half that magnitude the day of. How many times did we expect the main snow band to be over the NW piedmont only to end up in Tennessee and VA? A shift that much would put coastal Carolina area out of snow......... Sooooooooo. Either way, nature will do what it wants. So, best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, broken024 said: Just need this to shift nw 50 miles a day and we may get snow back to clt/rdu. It is a virtual impossibility to get snow to charlotte with a low originating where this one is. It would have to phase on the gulf coast side of FL or at the very least, near JAX and then you have to hope the trajectory is more NNE than NE. id be willing to bet that in the history of weather observing here, less than three snowstorms have formed where this one is projected to form and brought CLT any snow of any sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: A shift that much would put coastal Carolina area out of snow......... Sooooooooo. Either way, nature will do what it wants. So, best of luck. It's nearly impossible to get a system that gives snow to the whole state. Someone will lose out either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It is a virtual impossibility to get snow to charlotte with a low originating where this one is. It would have to phase on the gulf coast side of FL or at the very least, near JAX and then you have to hope the trajectory is more NNE than NE. id be willing to bet that in the history of weather observing here, less than three snowstorms have formed where this one is projected to form and brought CLT any snow of any sort. It's likely we'd have a westward shift with the s/w as we get closer, which could kick off the low a little further west. Could be enough to get CLT with some snow? But I think you are right that it's unlikely that CLT gets a lot. Even RDU getting more than a small amount is pretty low chance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 So your saying there's a chance? 8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It is a virtual impossibility to get snow to charlotte with a low originating where this one is. It would have to phase on the gulf coast side of FL or at the very least, near JAX and then you have to hope the trajectory is more NNE than NE. id be willing to bet that in the history of weather observing here, less than three snowstorms have formed where this one is projected to form and brought CLT any snow of any sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.