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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

One thing about the 12z NAM (compared to the GFS), is the last two frames you can see the low moving almost due north (not out to sea). This would potentially put many in play as it nears the coast. 

This! I was trying to explain this to @packbacker wrt the Nam and the due north movement. That is what we need at this stage of the game! That is one heck of a setup to swing and miss on. 

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2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

It lost the double barrel low and based on the isobars at 87 hours there is some evidence it wants to tuck the dominant surface low further to the wsw, which wwould be closer to the natural baroclinic zone from the Gulf Stream.

I've been wondering what effect the gulf stream has on storms like this, seems like models are forming the storm right over it but then it gets pulled out... I know this has been brought up during previous storms but I cant remember what the conclusion was. 

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I've been wondering what effect the gulf stream has on storms like this, seems like models are forming the storm right over it but then it gets pulled out... I know this has been brought up during previous storms but I cant remember what the conclusion was. 
Lows tend to amplify as they hit the gulf stream. We've seen it plenty of times with tropical cyclones.
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1 minute ago, tramadoc said:
3 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:
I've been wondering what effect the gulf stream has on storms like this, seems like models are forming the storm right over it but then it gets pulled out... I know this has been brought up during previous storms but I cant remember what the conclusion was. 

Lows tend to amplify as they hit the gulf stream. We've seen it plenty of times with tropical cyclones.

well yea but I meant wrt track of the low

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36 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

not bad... id be willing to bet further runs continue to bring this west, weve seen it plenty of times before

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png

Just 100 mile shift NW would probably give central NC decent snow. We've had larger shifts than that, and shifts of half that magnitude the day of. How many times did we expect the main snow band to be over the NW piedmont only to end up in Tennessee and VA?

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3 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Just 100 mile shift NW would probably give central NC decent snow. We've had larger shifts than that, and shifts of half that magnitude the day of. How many times did we expect the main snow band to be over the NW piedmont only to end up in Tennessee and VA?

A shift that much would put coastal Carolina area out of snow......... Sooooooooo. Either way, nature will do what it wants. So, best of luck. 

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4 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Just need this to shift nw 50 miles a day and we may get snow back to clt/rdu.

It is a virtual impossibility to get snow to charlotte with a low originating where this one is. It would have to phase on the gulf coast side of FL or at the very least, near JAX and then you have to hope the trajectory is more NNE than NE.

 

id be willing to bet that in the history of weather observing here, less than three snowstorms have formed where this one is projected to form and brought CLT any snow of any sort.

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9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

A shift that much would put coastal Carolina area out of snow......... Sooooooooo. Either way, nature will do what it wants. So, best of luck. 

It's nearly impossible to get a system that gives snow to the whole state. Someone will lose out either way.

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7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It is a virtual impossibility to get snow to charlotte with a low originating where this one is. It would have to phase on the gulf coast side of FL or at the very least, near JAX and then you have to hope the trajectory is more NNE than NE.

 

id be willing to bet that in the history of weather observing here, less than three snowstorms have formed where this one is projected to form and brought CLT any snow of any sort.

It's likely we'd have a westward shift with the s/w as we get closer, which could kick off the low a little further west. Could be enough to get CLT with some snow? But I think you are right that it's unlikely that CLT gets a lot. Even RDU getting more than a small amount is pretty low chance right now.

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So your saying there's a chance?

8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It is a virtual impossibility to get snow to charlotte with a low originating where this one is. It would have to phase on the gulf coast side of FL or at the very least, near JAX and then you have to hope the trajectory is more NNE than NE.

 

id be willing to bet that in the history of weather observing here, less than three snowstorms have formed where this one is projected to form and brought CLT any snow of any sort.

 

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