snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 00z German model has a bomb again. Unfortunately it doesn’t throw much precip inland for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justincobbco Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Guys I’m really excited for the coastal folks hoping myrtle and Hilton Head get buried but in the near term why is there no discussion regarding snow/sleet showing up on the NAM for north/central Ga tmrw night? If I remember correctly the NAM has been doing okay recently inside 48 hours. *secretly wishes NC was in Mid Atlantic forum* . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: People are still tracking this system? Lol. Why? It’s over. Move on. It's not. If it were two days away, I'd be done with it. But there are many favorables in the pattern. It's just a matter of the s/ws hooking up in one of several workable configurations. One slight eastward shift on the models is not a big deal yet. This isn't like the 29th storm, where the models sheared everything out. We don't have a sheared out nothing system. We have a system that will phase at some point, it's just a matter of when. An earlier deeper phase would give us a storm. That's entirely possible at this point with the inevitable NW trend. Question is just how far west it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Well 0z euro didn’t improve much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 nice little image from the euro, really illustrates how all the pieces are sooo close to something big... but once again escapes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 32 minutes ago, ajr said: Well 0z euro didn’t improve much Certainly didn't trend the way of the dodo like the GFS/Canadian/Ukie did. Completely expected it to trend East, but I guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 How accurate is the NAM 21 hours out? #qtna NAM 00Z and 06Z both have snow in South Carolina for tomorrow evening. I need other opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, zacharylane3 said: How accurate is the NAM 21 hours out? #qtna NAM 00Z and 06Z both have snow in South Carolina for tomorrow evening. I need other opinions? I wouldn't doubt a lot of folks, especially in SC, see a flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: I wouldn't doubt a lot of folks, especially in SC, see a flizzard. What in the world is a flizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Think of it as Snow Flurries ON STEROIDS. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 06z gfs still has the low heading northeast but precip is back to scraping the carolina coast some again. So just a smidge back to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS looks locked in...subtle changes past 24 hours. Not sure what changes we can get to make this closer...a little taller ridge and maybe the NE low moving out a little quicker is all I can think of. It seems like models have tried several different combinations of timing on these h5 lows and they all result in the same thing...a miss. Though NAVGEM has been trying...it gets an A for effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Well once again the NAVGEM is more amped. Anytime it amps more than other models and is closer to the coast it throws up a red flag, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Well once again the NAVGEM is more amped. Anytime it amps more than other models and is closer to the coast it throws up a red flag, imo. This is true. Usually not a progressive model for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Well once again the NAVGEM is more amped. Anytime it amps more than other models and is closer to the coast it throws up a red flag, imo. As was the buzzword for the early December system. “Warning shot?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12z NAM definintely more amped with the trough axis going neutral further west and phasing earlier. That's good to see. At 78 hrs, snow breaking out over coastal GA and N FL (!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 9 hours ago, Justincobbco said: *secretly wishes NC was in Mid Atlantic forum* . Why should we be talking about something that won’t affect us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 NAM has that trailing h5 vort with acme rocket attached to it...atleast this miss will be a pretty miss. That's a nice trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 By 84, sfc low is captured and bombing off the GA coast. NAM looking like a full phase but needs to be quick with it to pull in the precip further inland. At very least, coastal areas def in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 @Wow @packbacker you guys beat me to the punch. The 12z Nam is a beauty on 5h. Greatly improved from the 6z Nam. Curious to see if it keeps trending. Kind of got turned off last night with everything, however you have the 6z Navy, NAVGEM and now 12z Nam showing a more amped solution, which is all still viable and possible at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just the southern vort itself looks good at 78 but you can see that energy out in the atlantic, just going to pull everything east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: By 84, sfc low is captured and bombing off the GA coast. NAM looking like a full phase but needs to be quick with it to pull in the precip further inland. Yes it looks beautiful at 500. I feel like we just need it to setup correctly and then look for the correct depiction of the surface later. You know full phase is going to induce some serious fireworks and qpf production once the storm starts chugging up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Just the southern vort itself looks good at 78 but you can see that energy out in the atlantic, just going to pull everything east. Pack at 84 since it went neutral and full phase mode, it looks to be sucking that moisture in the Atlantic back west northwestward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 pack, definitely a coyote roadrunner miss there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Pack at 84 since it went neutral and full phase mode, it looks to be sucking that moisture in the Atlantic back west northwestward Not quite a full phase...3 pieces of energy and it's trying to phase to that atlantic energy, which we don't want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 33 minutes ago, Wow said: By 84, sfc low is captured and bombing off the GA coast. NAM looking like a full phase but needs to be quick with it to pull in the precip further inland. At very least, coastal areas def in play. it's not terribly crazy to see the coast of the carolinas get something but it would be pretty amazing if northeast florida/jacksonville area gets sleet/snow/freezing rain..which the icon, nam show (and canadian/gfls also shows potential...especially if precip starts early enough)...with the euro being very close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not quite a full phase...3 pieces of energy and it's trying to phase to that atlantic energy, which we don't want. What a volatile setup yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 So far the 12z GFS is a bit further west than 6z (and the 12z NAM) with the s/w... also keep an eye on that piece of energy over AZ/NM at 42 hrs.. that's been trending east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 By 60, GFS is most certainly phasing earlier and further west than the NAM possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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