CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, broken024 said: So one wave trended good and the other one said screw you? Yep, that about sums it up..... the northern piece of energy was to slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Yep, that about sums it up..... the northern piece of energy was to slow. well GFS is about to lay down the law here in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 A nose further west trough 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 35 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: well GFS is about to lay down the law here in a few. It looks like it's going to duplicate the NAM, that's not good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Model cycles would be so much better if we could get the ukie, then euro and eps. Save the nam and gfs for post midnight. Then no one would ever complain about the 0z gfs and nam cause we'd all be asleep before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The CMC is a miss for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Don't see how the GFS is going to be west this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS trying hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 GFS looks more like 12z at hr 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It looks like it's going to duplicate the NAM, that's not good! Not hardly, atleast the trailing wave catches the lead one unlike the nam. But end result will be the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 West trend may be over.. GFS not gonna cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: West trend may be over.. GFS not gonna cut it ? pretty significant west ward trend id say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: West trend may be over.. GFS not gonna cut it Good thing you can predict future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Trailing wave needs to drop futher west. Got off to a slow start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: ? Develops right off Florida coast and a nudge futher north. Big difference from where it had it developing in the northern Bahamas If that's sitting off Jax or Daytona instead of Cape canaveral, it will have huge implications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Good thing you can predict future model runs. Hence why I said "may" be over. This is a long shot anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 That NS dropped a bit more than the 18z I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Precip is a touch east compared to 18z on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Looks like a cleaner phase at least. No double barrel low this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 yep too bad it seems hell bent on going NE after formation, weird despite developing further west it ends up east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Disco-lemonade said: yep too bad it seems hell bent on going NE after formation, weird despite developing further west it ends up east... It was a little more positive tilt at the base of the trough this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 UKMet is well east of previous run. Doesn't have the quicker, deeper phase. Looks similar to CMC and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The nam,gfs and Canadian all 3 have problems for different reasons on 0z because of the trailing vort. It's not like all 3 models are messing up the trailing vort,timing wise for the same reason at h5. Everything else looked good. So it's the trailing wave that has to be watched like a hawk now. It will determine if this is a swing and a miss or the pitcher hits our bat out over the plate with a fastball. Edit ,probably same for ukmet. Can't tell haven't seen. Let the SE trend begin lol. We've tracked 3 consecutive events and it's wash rinse repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: UKMet is well east of previous run. Doesn't have the quicker, deeper phase. Looks similar to CMC and GFS When the ensembles are showing less than 20% hits its never good at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 well that settles it. glad we got this over sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Bigger story is the reinforcing cold shot and wind chills.. Probably some below 0 wind chills for Triangle even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet is well east of previous run. Doesn't have the quicker, deeper phase. Looks similar to CMC and GFS Where do you find the UKMET this early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 WPC Model Discussion this aftn considered the UKMet an outlier...sounds like a good call based on 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just now, nflwxman said: Where do you find the UKMET this early? It's literally a pain in the neck to look at, but here it is - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 17 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: The nam,gfs and Canadian all 3 have problems for different reasons on 0z because of the trailing vort. It's not like all 3 models are messing up the trailing vort,timing wise for the same reason at h5. Everything else looked good. So it's the trailing wave that has to be watched like a hawk now. It will determine if this is a swing and a miss or the pitcher hits our bat out over the plate with a fastball. Edit ,probably same for ukmet. Can't tell haven't seen. Let the SE trend begin lol. We've tracked 3 consecutive events and it's wash rinse repeat. The Hudson Bay vortex had a vorticity spoke rotate and drew the trailer closer to it, altering the course of it enough to mess up the timing of the phase by delaying it...hence the further east solution. The GFS had a better SFC rep but 6 mn weaker versus the previous run. Suspect the EURO will be the same, but that trailing wave is even more important to get Part 2 right..the phase timing. We have Part 1 still in our favor. But Part 3 is everything so Part 2 must come back or Part 2 is the final chapter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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