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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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The nam,gfs and Canadian all 3 have problems for different reasons on 0z because of the trailing vort. It's not like all 3 models are messing up the trailing vort,timing wise for the same reason at h5. Everything else looked good. So it's the trailing wave that has to be watched like a hawk now. It will determine if this is a swing and a miss or the pitcher hits our bat out over the plate with a fastball.

 

Edit ,probably same for ukmet. Can't tell haven't seen.

Let the SE trend begin lol. We've tracked 3 consecutive events and it's wash rinse repeat.

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17 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

The nam,gfs and Canadian all 3 have problems for different reasons on 0z because of the trailing vort. It's not like all 3 models are messing up the trailing vort,timing wise for the same reason at h5. Everything else looked good. So it's the trailing wave that has to be watched like a hawk now. It will determine if this is a swing and a miss or the pitcher hits our bat out over the plate with a fastball.

 

Edit ,probably same for ukmet. Can't tell haven't seen.

Let the SE trend begin lol. We've tracked 3 consecutive events and it's wash rinse repeat.

The Hudson Bay vortex had a vorticity spoke rotate and drew the trailer closer to it, altering the course of it enough to mess up the timing of the phase by delaying it...hence the further east solution.   The GFS had a better SFC rep but 6 mn weaker versus the previous run.  Suspect the EURO will be the same, but that trailing wave is even more important to get Part 2 right..the phase timing.  We have Part 1 still in our favor.   But Part 3 is everything so Part 2 must come back or Part 2 is the final chapter. 

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