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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Last winter I could find where Dec/Jan was BN and we didn't have snow was 2000/2001.  Which was the winter of our big bust and a great analog for this winter.  LOL...last few years we had plenty of rainy coastals and no cold and now it's the opposite.

Yeah, it’s just a different pattern of sucktitude.  So far, anyway.  At least this year, we have the cold plus energy in the flow.  The flow is certainly not optimal for storm production, but you can’t rule it out completely.  If something does pop, at least the chance of frozen is higher than normal.

It’s kind of like putting: You will never, ever make a birdy by leaving it short (last year). This year, we’re missing long, which at least means that a birdy is possible.  Always give me the cold first.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, it’s just a different pattern of sucktitude.  So far, anyway.  At least this year, we have the cold plus energy in the flow.  The flow is certainly not optimal for storm production, but you can’t rule it out completely.  If something does pop, at least the chance of frozen is higher than normal.

It’s kind of like putting: You will never, ever make a birdy by leaving it short (last year). This year, we’re missing long, which at least means that a birdy is possible.  Always give me the cold first.

As someone who golfs, I like that analogy. We are over shooting the green with the driver and have to chip it in

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6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

The post NYD wave is the one fellows. We have a good H5 consensus euro,eps,can. Ukie not to far off. And it's a go big or go home deal. All chips are in on this one and it's very very close to a big dog woof. This will not end up being some weak overrun er imo. 2 options a big phaser or nada 

The key to this one is the PNA spiking enough to allow the wave to dig and go neutral/negative tilt like the Euro and CMC show. The GFS keeps the ridge flatter and our vort gets strung out as a result.  

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We seem to spend a lot of time at home. :(

Little surprised they let us create a thread for a day 6 threat that doesn’t have model consensus.  Previous two evaporated shortly after.  Let’s hope our luck changes because it seems whatever models show at day 6-7 seem to look much different at days 3-4.

Just went back and looked for what models were showing for tomorrow and the Euro/EPS lost it once inside day 6, GFS held onto it for another day.  But we hadn’t model consensus for a legit threat at day 6 and it evaporated quick after.  

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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Am I wrong in saying things are trending a little colder in the 11-15 day range as well? Alaskan ridge not breaking down as fast as it was before. Maybe this will give us a better chance at something as the pattern relaxes slowly.

You are correct... compare the 12z EURO yesterday to the 0z EURO this morning for next weekend, way colder and the GFS ticked colder from 0z to 6z as well

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Am I wrong in saying things are trending a little colder in the 11-15 day range as well? Alaskan ridge not breaking down as fast as it was before. Maybe this will give us a better chance at something as the pattern relaxes slowly.

It rebuilds the ridge. That might be a permanent feature this year.

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The air mass is starting to get stale by that point across AL/GA/SC so if you were to shift this whole setup north its entirely possible there are issues with temps.  Also remember the GFS is probably overdone with the high/cold which is why the CMC/Euro/UKIE SHOULD be further north with this if they depict it

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