Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Last winter I could find where Dec/Jan was BN and we didn't have snow was 2000/2001. Which was the winter of our big bust and a great analog for this winter. LOL...last few years we had plenty of rainy coastals and no cold and now it's the opposite. Yeah, it’s just a different pattern of sucktitude. So far, anyway. At least this year, we have the cold plus energy in the flow. The flow is certainly not optimal for storm production, but you can’t rule it out completely. If something does pop, at least the chance of frozen is higher than normal. It’s kind of like putting: You will never, ever make a birdy by leaving it short (last year). This year, we’re missing long, which at least means that a birdy is possible. Always give me the cold first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, it’s just a different pattern of sucktitude. So far, anyway. At least this year, we have the cold plus energy in the flow. The flow is certainly not optimal for storm production, but you can’t rule it out completely. If something does pop, at least the chance of frozen is higher than normal. It’s kind of like putting: You will never, ever make a birdy by leaving it short (last year). This year, we’re missing long, which at least means that a birdy is possible. Always give me the cold first. As someone who golfs, I like that analogy. We are over shooting the green with the driver and have to chip it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: Edit: just noticed, where is the thread for the Monday miss? Old dude deleted the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The post NYD wave is the one fellows. We have a good H5 consensus euro,eps,can. Ukie not to far off. And it's a go big or go home deal. All chips are in on this one and it's very very close to a big dog woof. This will not end up being some weak overrun er imo. 2 options a big phaser or nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: The post NYD wave is the one fellows. We have a good H5 consensus euro,eps,can. Ukie not to far off. And it's a go big or go home deal. All chips are in on this one and it's very very close to a big dog woof. Now if only the GFS came around we would have all players in agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: The post NYD wave is the one fellows. We have a good H5 consensus euro,eps,can. Ukie not to far off. And it's a go big or go home deal. All chips are in on this one and it's very very close to a big dog woof. This will not end up being some weak overrun er imo. 2 options a big phaser or nada The key to this one is the PNA spiking enough to allow the wave to dig and go neutral/negative tilt like the Euro and CMC show. The GFS keeps the ridge flatter and our vort gets strung out as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12z NAM trending slightly colder out to 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: We seem to spend a lot of time at home. Little surprised they let us create a thread for a day 6 threat that doesn’t have model consensus. Previous two evaporated shortly after. Let’s hope our luck changes because it seems whatever models show at day 6-7 seem to look much different at days 3-4. Just went back and looked for what models were showing for tomorrow and the Euro/EPS lost it once inside day 6, GFS held onto it for another day. But we hadn’t model consensus for a legit threat at day 6 and it evaporated quick after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Am I wrong in saying things are trending a little colder in the 11-15 day range as well? Alaskan ridge not breaking down as fast as it was before. Maybe this will give us a better chance at something as the pattern relaxes slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Am I wrong in saying things are trending a little colder in the 11-15 day range as well? Alaskan ridge not breaking down as fast as it was before. Maybe this will give us a better chance at something as the pattern relaxes slowly. You are correct... compare the 12z EURO yesterday to the 0z EURO this morning for next weekend, way colder and the GFS ticked colder from 0z to 6z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 84hr NAM looks like something might cook up for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: Am I wrong in saying things are trending a little colder in the 11-15 day range as well? Alaskan ridge not breaking down as fast as it was before. Maybe this will give us a better chance at something as the pattern relaxes slowly. It rebuilds the ridge. That might be a permanent feature this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 How does the GFS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: How does the GFS look? looks better at 72, moisture back up to the Louisiana/Arkansas border with the top fringe being ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 looks about the same at 90. That's a huge cold high coming down, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 energy looks better at 102 than 06z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The HP is stronger this run than the 6z, not sure how that will work out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Massive suppression continues at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 At 132, only precipitation is from central Florida south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 what the heck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 That caboose on the tail end of the energy looks interesting on day 6 Euro,even the GFS has that feature entering the US at day 4. Best chance at the moment,separate and dig is what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 HUGE shift for that gulf low, at 6z it was down by Cuba... now it is on south Florida at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: what the heck... Yup, that High is to far south. Suppression will continue until that big ole H gets more N and E where it is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: what the heck... Did we finally catch that Unicorn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Nice looking storm but it doesn't turn up the coast early enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The air mass is starting to get stale by that point across AL/GA/SC so if you were to shift this whole setup north its entirely possible there are issues with temps. Also remember the GFS is probably overdone with the high/cold which is why the CMC/Euro/UKIE SHOULD be further north with this if they depict it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, broken024 said: Nice looking storm but it doesn't turn up the coast early enough. That is true for this run, but it has gotten better the last couple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Hurricane force low (975mb) hitting the NE at 174hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 As long as we have that massive arctic front hitting I do not think we get a storm. The high pressure is just going to eat anything in its path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 CMC is suppressed and wide right also. It has a 1044 high in Missouri which is the cause. If that high is too far south (which is very possible) the outcome is very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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