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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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1 minute ago, ajr said:

ICON had a very bullish 12z run, and 18z backed off a bit but still showing a decent storm for folks further east

image.png.57495faa66fb98a94740ec42ccb5db8c.png

Are temps questionable though toward the coast?  For Myrtle beach anyways I’m assuming we will be riding a line.  Hopefully the upper 30s for the high drop quickly when/if the moisture shows up.  I’d really like to see it get down to Savannah 

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1 minute ago, goldman75 said:

Are temps questionable though toward the coast?  For Myrtle beach anyways I’m assuming we will be riding a line.  Hopefully the upper 30s for the high drop quickly when/if the moisture shows up.  I’d really like to see it get down to Savannah 

Looks pretty good

image.png

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22 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

Are temps questionable though toward the coast?  For Myrtle beach anyways I’m assuming we will be riding a line.  Hopefully the upper 30s for the high drop quickly when/if the moisture shows up.  I’d really like to see it get down to Savannah 

Temps are pretty much always a issue at the beaches....though this may be one of those rare times it isnt ..DP's are stupid low so I imagine if we can get some decent precip falling temps would crash nicely.....this is the DP map  on the GFS the day leading up to the storm and honestly I cant remember the last time I saw a DP map like this for the SE....it does kick up to the teens for when your area is getting precip still though that would wetbulb below freezing easy. 

gfs_Td2m_seus_16.thumb.png.37ffde408ec6065de3aae1bcc941de83.png

 

 

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I'd love to get a heavy dose of qpf for mby as most of us would . But unlike most other events if you can just squeeze out .10 to .20 qpf, you'll have 15 to 1 ratios, if not higher mid week. 

So for once just getting in the first or second contour of shading mid week can cover way more than the mulch and trash can lid. Something to think about. That's a 1 1/2 - 3 inch fluffy snow.

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35 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Temps are pretty much always a issue at the beaches....though this may be one of those rare times it isnt ..DP's are stupid low so I imagine if we can get some decent precip falling temps would crash nicely.....this is the DP map  on the GFS the day leading up to the storm and honestly I cant remember the last time I saw a DP map like this for the SE....it does kick up to the teens for when your area is getting precip still though that would wetbulb below freezing easy.

Yeah at hour 102 here for Myrtle Beach the sounding supports snow if the precip is there.  Note the wetbulb temperature (blue line) is below freezing through the atmosphere.  For those that don't look at these, the temperature lines are the dashed lines running from bottom left to upper right

Dnf8wuo.png

 

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So far the Nam has trended the vort a little stronger through 51 and also a little west northwest of its 18z position. 18z has it over Rapid City SD and 0z has it over eastern Montana. 

Edit: @54 Nam shows a closed contour with the vort as it continues to dig more southward than southeastward. Def stronger and a better movement thus far. 

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2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Ridge isn’t as tall on the NAM so trailing wave can’t drop south...it has to traverse SE then drop. Such a fragile setup with that ridge.  namconus_z500_vort_us_46.png

So unfortunate because the first wave has one hell of a southward dig to it tonight, rather than southeastward. 

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Good thing it's the NAM, but will be something to look out for on the GFS

I’ll tell you one thing. If the n/s vort pans out to be where it was positioned at the end of the run at 18z and the southern vort pans out to be where it has it progged at 75 on the 0z Nam, it would be one hell of a phase. The nam adjusted the southern vort several hundred miles to the west northwest this run. 

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

So unfortunate because the first wave has one hell of a southward dig to it tonight, rather than southeastward. 

Well still 48 hours from lead wave hitting conus and 60+ hours for the trailing wave.  Not the way we want to start but it’s the NAM.  

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