goldman75 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ajr said: ICON had a very bullish 12z run, and 18z backed off a bit but still showing a decent storm for folks further east Are temps questionable though toward the coast? For Myrtle beach anyways I’m assuming we will be riding a line. Hopefully the upper 30s for the high drop quickly when/if the moisture shows up. I’d really like to see it get down to Savannah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Cary_Snow95 said: The GEFS H5 look is improved compared to 12z regardless of what the snow maps show Amen. And that's all that matters next couple of cycles. Surface will sort itself out,respond on models. It's all about H5 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, goldman75 said: Are temps questionable though toward the coast? For Myrtle beach anyways I’m assuming we will be riding a line. Hopefully the upper 30s for the high drop quickly when/if the moisture shows up. I’d really like to see it get down to Savannah Looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 ICON change is due to it digging the first sw so far south and it has a later phase. 12z v/s 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Interesting comparing the 12z icon v/s 18z GFS...you can see the GFS doesn't quite have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: ICON change is due to it digging the first sw so far south and it has a later phase. 12z v/s 18z Actually looks like its just less of a phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: Actually looks like its just less of a phasing. Yep...early on the west coast ridge is flatter causing more separation. I thought this tweet was good...first thing that stood out was the ridge. https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/947266930691465223 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 22 minutes ago, goldman75 said: Are temps questionable though toward the coast? For Myrtle beach anyways I’m assuming we will be riding a line. Hopefully the upper 30s for the high drop quickly when/if the moisture shows up. I’d really like to see it get down to Savannah Temps are pretty much always a issue at the beaches....though this may be one of those rare times it isnt ..DP's are stupid low so I imagine if we can get some decent precip falling temps would crash nicely.....this is the DP map on the GFS the day leading up to the storm and honestly I cant remember the last time I saw a DP map like this for the SE....it does kick up to the teens for when your area is getting precip still though that would wetbulb below freezing easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I'd love to get a heavy dose of qpf for mby as most of us would . But unlike most other events if you can just squeeze out .10 to .20 qpf, you'll have 15 to 1 ratios, if not higher mid week. So for once just getting in the first or second contour of shading mid week can cover way more than the mulch and trash can lid. Something to think about. That's a 1 1/2 - 3 inch fluffy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, ajr said: ICON had a very bullish 12z run, and 18z backed off a bit but still showing a decent storm for folks further east Keep in mind that's mm. So verbatim really light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It's also the ICON, so verbatim I take it lightly anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Nam @39 a tad stronger with the vort dropping into Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 35 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Temps are pretty much always a issue at the beaches....though this may be one of those rare times it isnt ..DP's are stupid low so I imagine if we can get some decent precip falling temps would crash nicely.....this is the DP map on the GFS the day leading up to the storm and honestly I cant remember the last time I saw a DP map like this for the SE....it does kick up to the teens for when your area is getting precip still though that would wetbulb below freezing easy. Yeah at hour 102 here for Myrtle Beach the sounding supports snow if the precip is there. Note the wetbulb temperature (blue line) is below freezing through the atmosphere. For those that don't look at these, the temperature lines are the dashed lines running from bottom left to upper right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 NAM keeps painting a narrow N/S band of light, persistent snow generally from Lake Lanier south tomorrow night. Looks like it's modeling some lift where the fresh low level cold air coming in from the NW runs into NE winds wedging down from the NE here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Hour 27 3z NAM Monday it shows some snow maybe Wilmington down to Georgetown sc and westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 So far the Nam has trended the vort a little stronger through 51 and also a little west northwest of its 18z position. 18z has it over Rapid City SD and 0z has it over eastern Montana. Edit: @54 Nam shows a closed contour with the vort as it continues to dig more southward than southeastward. Def stronger and a better movement thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, goldman75 said: Hour 27 3z NAM Monday it shows some snow maybe Wilmington down to Georgetown sc and westward Wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 SW to the North is non-existant on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Ridge isn’t as tall on the NAM so trailing wave can’t drop south...it has to traverse SE then drop. Such a fragile setup with that ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: SW to the North is non-existant on the nam. I was just gonna say that. Wtf?! It’s like a million miles farther to the east than any model run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I was just gonna say that. Wtf?! It’s like a million miles farther to the east than any model run so far. Good thing it's the NAM, but will be something to look out for on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Ridge isn’t as tall on the NAM so trailing wave can’t drop south...it has to traverse SE then drop. Such a fragile setup with that ridge. So unfortunate because the first wave has one hell of a southward dig to it tonight, rather than southeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Good thing it's the NAM, but will be something to look out for on the GFS I’ll tell you one thing. If the n/s vort pans out to be where it was positioned at the end of the run at 18z and the southern vort pans out to be where it has it progged at 75 on the 0z Nam, it would be one hell of a phase. The nam adjusted the southern vort several hundred miles to the west northwest this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: So unfortunate because the first wave has one hell of a southward dig to it tonight, rather than southeastward. Well still 48 hours from lead wave hitting conus and 60+ hours for the trailing wave. Not the way we want to start but it’s the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 what the hell.... models still got a ways to go i guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: what the hell.... models still got a ways to go i guess.... #theswitcheroo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Guys I’m really excited for the coastal folks hoping myrtle and Hilton Head get buried but in the near term why is there no discussion regarding snow/sleet showing up on the NAM for north/central Ga tmrw night? If I remember correctly the NAM has been doing okay recently inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Wrong threadWe do not a thread for the NYD event anymore. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Scared to see the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 So one wave trended good and the other one said screw you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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