Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Smart catch. If that is not there, low forms further NE where their is more baroclinicity. Yes that's the leading wave in the STJ that places the sfc low well east of the main trough axis. If that piece were in the GOM at this time frame, I think we'd be in business. Also note that piece of energy was weaker and about 100 miles further east on the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Here's the 500mb vorticity map at 66 hrs from the 18z GFS. If we do see a stronger, more consolidated wave in the STJ over the northern GOM this would also pull the trough axis west and SLP would blossom further NW. Just some wishful food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 So if we didn’t have a rogue vort over the Bahamas, central NC probably would’ve been crushed that run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 We still have plenty of time and a few different angles to get just enough trends in our favor to produce a favorable end result. Things have trended alot in our favor over the past 36 hrs. Tell you watching gfs h5 on 18z is about as good as you can draw it up. But the surface reflection and low placement arent there yet. Good catch by pack. So let's see how the American models work this kink in the stj eitheir in or against our favor. The ukie is the crown jewel of forecasting phased storms in model world. So it's nice it painted the picture it did at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: We still have plenty of time and a few different angles to get just enough trends in our favor to produce a favorable end result. Things have trended alot in our favor over the past 36 hrs. Tell you watching gfs h5 on 18z is about as good as you can draw it up. But the surface reflection and low placement arent there yet. Good catch by pack. So let's see how the American models work this kink in the stj eitheir in or against our favor. The ukie is the crown jewel of forecasting phased storms in model world. So it's nice it painted the picture it did at 12z. Ukie somehow had 2.0 QPF of all snow in my neck of the woods. A bit far fetched, but the fact that the most Eastern model for this storm (GFS) is shifting West, it's a good sign. I'm rooting for you folks in NC and SC to get pummeled, because hopefully that translates to a big storm in the DC region. Trends look good, and hopefully the 0z suite is even farther West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Ukie somehow had 2.0 QPF of all snow in my neck of the woods. A bit far fetched, but the fact that the most Eastern model for this storm (GFS) is shifting West, it's a good sign. I'm rooting for you folks in NC and SC to get pummeled, because hopefully that translates to a big storm in the DC region. Trends look good, and hopefully the 0z suite is even farther West. Yea a good met answered pacs concern on the other board and says the vort over Bahamas yanking our lp way east off coast of Florida is a flawed convective feedback issue. So I think alot of us felt surface should have looked a lot different given what the model showed at h5. Want that lp tucked as tight to Florida coast as we can get when it forms in the Atlantic. Then as it bombs away you would see a lot more qpf being thrown inland. And I'd prefer it come off north coast of Florida instead of south. Futher it can trend north where it comes off in the Atlantic makes huge differences up stream. So just that little issue is one of many small but subtle changes to look and root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 So if we see the same 'quantified' (west miles) trends in the next 24hrs we saw in the last will that put central Va/NC/Sc in the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 21 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Yea a good met answered pacs concern on the other board and says the vort over Bahamas yanking our lp way east off coast of Florida is a flawed convective feedback issue. So I think alot of us felt surface should have looked a lot different given what the model showed at h5. Want that lp tucked as tight to Florida coast as we can get when it forms in the Atlantic. Then as it bombs away you would see a lot more qpf being thrown inland. And I'd prefer it come off north coast of Florida instead of south. Futher it can trend north where it comes off in the Atlantic makes huge differences up stream. So just that little issue is one of many small but subtle changes to look and root for. Sounds interesting.. could you link to their explanation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The southeast coast there is littered with storms that have trended west compared to extended modeling. Just need 500mb to continue trending. SST are above normal off the coast. The surface low will naturally want to tuck in closer, again, as long as 500mb doesn't go the other way. Looks good right now for shaggy, downeast, and snowlover91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Going to need a drink after looking at the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: The southeast coast there is littered with storms that have trended west compared to extended modeling. Just need 500mb to continue trending. SST are above normal off the coast. The surface low will naturally want to tuck in closer, again, as long as 500mb doesn't go the other way. Looks good right now for shaggy, downeast, and snowlover91 Grit absolutely spot on man. Many instances where the GFS struggles prolifically with these setups and starts off farther southeast with systems. The lows love to ride the Gulf Stream and almost always come back further westward than progged. 500 setup is about as good as we can get it right now and it keeps trending each Zulu run. I think people may be very surprised by the ultimate outcome when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Going to need a drink after looking at the GEFS Uh oh. What you got man? Good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Going to need a drink after looking at the GEFS Just look at e17 and think happy thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: The southeast coast there is littered with storms that have trended west compared to extended modeling. Just need 500mb to continue trending. SST are above normal off the coast. The surface low will naturally want to tuck in closer, again, as long as 500mb doesn't go the other way. Looks good right now for shaggy, downeast, and snowlover91 Not just Southeast coast. Many events even up my way trend NW within 72 hours. I personally think this will be no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Uh oh. What you got man? Good or bad? Bad, Sigma values down. Dramatic changes should slow. Hopefully it goes up. I want snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 West trend is clearly there, not a lot, but does look good for the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Grit absolutely spot on man. Many instances where the GFS struggles prolifically with these setups and starts off farther southeast with systems. The lows love to ride the Gulf Stream and almost always come back further westward than progged. 500 setup is about as good as we can get it right now and it keeps trending each Zulu run. I think people may be very surprised by the ultimate outcome when all is said and done. Yeah I don't know that the GFS is the model to hang your hat on with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Yeah I don't know that the GFS is the model to hang your hat on with this Closest time I can remember the GFS greatly suppressing a storm was just last week for the Christmas storm. Completely suppressed it while the Euro was much better in that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The GEFS H5 look is improved compared to 12z regardless of what the snow maps show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: The GEFS H5 look is improved compared to 12z regardless of what the snow maps show Yep, getting what we need in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I will be on a cruise ship out of Baltimore starting on Tuesday, sailing south on Wednesday, stopping in Charleston on Thursday. If this trend continues, we will have a very interesting voyage! The trend is clear, just not sure how far it will go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 When was the last time we had a look like this and nobody got precip except for eastern NE. This just looks like this should jack 95 and point east. 89 is below, slp started in bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 30 minutes ago, RichardJacks said: I will be on a cruise ship out of Baltimore starting on Tuesday, sailing south on Wednesday, stopping in Charleston on Thursday. If this trend continues, we will have a very interesting voyage! The trend is clear, just not sure how far it will go... Bring your Dramamine......and maybe a spare Epirb. If the Low off the coast is modeled correctly, you'll be looking at 15-20ft seas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just look at e17 and think happy thoughtsE2 or E10 is better. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zacharylane3 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: When was the last time we had a look like this and nobody got precip except for eastern NE. This just looks like this should jack 95 and point west. 89 is below, slp started in bahamas Can you explain this a lil more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, zacharylane3 said: Can you explain this a lil more? I should have said 95 and east, this looks promising for eastern Carolinas. Neutral trough should go negative with a slightly cleaner phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richatdjacks Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Bring your Dramamine......and maybe a spare Epirb. If the Low off the coast is modeled correctly, you'll be looking at 15-20ft seas.Thays what I am thinking... Maybe even higher seas depending on the track. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: I should have said 95 and east, this looks promising for eastern Carolinas. Neutral trough should go negative with a slightly cleaner phase. Sorry if I'm barging in from the Mid Atlantic forum (Basically every forum on this board is in play for this event), but would this also put DC in play if you're referring to I-95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Sorry if I'm barging in from the Mid Atlantic forum (Basically every forum on this board is in play for this event), but would this also put DC in play if you're referring to I-95? Definitely, assuming we get a cleaner phase. Though there is a probably a reason the Euro/GFS/CMC are showing coastal scrapers...as much as we think we know they still know better then us. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 ICON had a very bullish 12z run, and 18z backed off a bit but still showing a decent storm for folks further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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