HKY1894 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 hr72 trough lifting out of NE quicker than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 At 72 looks best yet, slightly stronger waves that are slightly West due to ridge being west and NE low lifting out a little quicker. If GFS doesn’t show something now that it ain’t happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 sw looks a bit stronger at 72 than 12z. def nw of the location at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ajr said: Don’t think this will be able to dig as far south though We don’t need the lead wave south but the trailing one we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Don't think its a huge difference but maybe a little bit more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 def improved at 90, lets see if the precip makes it further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 definitely more neutral tilt than 12z at base of trough at hr90. May be too late still but this is def coming west this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 at 102 a def shift west with precip. great trends continue. snow along the coast chs up to myrtle beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This look in the Bahamas is interesting... almost as if the model can’t decide where to form a low. The two low pressure centers next to each other seems strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looking at the H5 map I thought the surface map would look better but still east. Not sure we're going to get this one far enough west for any of us inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 outer banks with some snow, need this baby to come west and many will be in business. big dog potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, ajr said: This look in the Bahamas is interesting... almost as if the model can’t decide where to form a low. The two low pressure centers next to each other seems strange. Hasn't really consolidated the energy.. there's a small leading wave in the STJ that brings the LP out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Still to far east but a definite shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 whole trough axis is steadily trending west on the gfs, coastal carolinas are in play with this for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, HKY1894 said: whole trough axis is steadily trending west on the gfs, coastal carolinas are in play with this for sure. At the surface level the trend is there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief25 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I know most of you are focusing on the Carolinas. Any ideas for Alabama/Georgia areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Their is no doubt about it, if we want to see a Significant Shift West, it's got to Phase much sooner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Chief25 said: I know most of you are focusing on the Carolinas. Any ideas for Alabama/Georgia areas? Totally out of the game on this, except for maybe Savannah or the sea islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief25 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 We are getting 50-75 mile shifts west the whole day today and yesterday. If these continue, many of us will be in the game. Keep in mind, the SW to the N wont reach CONUS until monday. Still more model changes to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 You can see what's causing the problem...there is this stout little vort over the Bahama's that comes out of the gulf and develops a surface low, that's the 2nd low east of the low we are hoping for. You can see on the first two images below this occurring. At hour 96 we finally see our low pop nice and tucked in close to FL, that's the 3rd image. I have no idea why that rouge vort is there. Would think at 96 with the SLP tucked in nicely with the h5 low it's showing it should have been more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Chief25 said: Thank you No problem. I wish I had better news for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Then at 108 it's a mess we have 3 different h5 lows, 2 SLP's and no clean phase and that lead vort is tryig to drag it away. Probably why we don't have a clean phase... I thought this was going to be a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: You can see what's causing the problem...there is this stout little vort over the Bahama's that comes out of the gulf and develops a surface low, that's the 2nd low east of the low we are hoping for. You can see on the first two images below this occurring. At hour 96 we finally see our low pop nice and tucked in close to FL, that's the 3rd image. I have no idea why that rouge vort is there. Would think at 96 with the SLP tucked in nicely with the h5 low it's showing it should have been more west. Smart catch. If that is not there, low forms further NE where their is more baroclinicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief25 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: No problem. I wish I had better news for you. Your good. Locally they were discussing the small threat of FR or sleet so I was trying to see how the cold and the precip was materializing compared to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justabamajammer Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 NWS Tallahassee seems to think there could be a chance for GA/FL/AL areas if this occurs far enough west or gets stronger than expected. Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 301 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 The main shortwave to watch for any precipitation is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Right now with a very dry airmass expected to be ahead of it and little moisture advection, it looks like a dry system for the local area. However, the atmosphere will likely be cold enough to support wintry precip should the shortwave dig a little farther west or come in stronger than expected, so it bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: You can see what's causing the problem...there is this stout little vort over the Bahama's that comes out of the gulf and develops a surface low, that's the 2nd low east of the low we are hoping for. You can see on the first two images below this occurring. At hour 96 we finally see our low pop nice and tucked in close to FL, that's the 3rd image. I have no idea why that rouge vort is there. Would think at 96 with the SLP tucked in nicely with the h5 low it's showing it should have been more west. Good catch pack...Like you, looking at H5, I thought this was going to be a good run. If it isn't one thing, it's another...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 No clue what the navgem is doing...not sure why these aren’t phasing. I am sure it’s correct but just don’t understand. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2017123018&prod=500&tau=096&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: No clue what the navgem is doing...not sure why these aren’t phasing. I am sure it’s correct but just don’t understand. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2017123018&prod=500&tau=096&set=All How is that not a phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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