Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

RAH discussion this afternoon...

As for precipitation, or lack thereof, the extended forecast is
largely expected to be dry. The medium range models still differ
slightly for Wednesday into Thursday. The EC tries to generate some
light precipitation over eastern NC, while the GFS solution remains
dry. Both solutions keep the coastal low well off the Carolina
coast. That being said, even small shifts in the position/track of
the aforementioned low could result in increased chances for snow
along the eastern fringe of the area. Confidence is average for the
precipitation forecast to remain dry, but there is enough
uncertainty to mention the possibility of some wintry precipitation.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is their anyway this thing can phase and mirror what is shown as my avatar? lol ... I would love a January 2000 repeat. 

UK wasn't that far off of that.  But it's all alone.  Odds are for a coastal scaper though...or a miss.  We are right at 96-108 hours out and majority ensembles members have a miss. 

Track reminds of a Feb 2010 or even Dec 2004.

2010021306.gif

2004122612.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

UK wasn't that far off of that.  But it's all alone.  Odds are for a coastal scaper though...or a miss.  We are right at 96-108 hours out and majority ensembles members have a miss. 

Track reminds of a Feb 2010 or even Dec 2004.

2010021306.gif

2004122612.gif

How did the 2004 storm go? Up the coast or OTS?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

18z NAM - Heights are lifting faster out of the NE, giving more room for our wave to get its act together.

Boy you ain’t kidding. 12z had the NE heights over the Syracuse NY region. 18z has it over western Maine. Only problem I see and don’t like is the 1st s/w or southern one is a little more progressive. I’d like to see that hang back some and allow the northern stream energy to catch it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Wow said:

18z NAM - Heights are lifting faster out of the NE, giving more room for our wave to get its act together.

The other noticeable difference as well is the main bundle of energy wrt the northern stream energy and the handling of different model suites. 12z gfs has this centered around Green Bay WI. 18z Nam has this around Mason City Iowa. Could make a big difference down the road to help this storm get up the coast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Seriously, how much farther west of a trend before CLT gets involved? Is that an impossibility? Is there a limiting factor that to keep it from going that far west?

I'm going to say it's virtually impossible at this point. If I were on the immediate coast I might be excited. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...