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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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47 minutes ago, griteater said:

The UKMet run...

Z3snqSk.gif

The shortwave trough here on the UKMet that extends just east of Maine and down off the New Jersey coast, last night's Euro has this a bit west, extending from E Mass to off Deleware.  Just looping through the 500mb charts, that looks like a key feature.  The quicker that trough exists (along with the pressing heights down south of there off the mid-atlantic coast), the more room the southern plains wave will have to sharpen and phase.  The UKMet is more favorable in this regard (quicker to exit the NE trough)

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24 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Looks similar to the NAM at 72

 

I guess the optimist on this would say 24 hours ago no models showed anything...threat was almost dead.  Today 2 global models showed big hits all the way back to central Carolinas and the other global showed eastern Carolina's snowfall.  And the GEFS showed 9/20 members with solid hits.

But, 0z EPS had 5 members with snow that was really just confined to eastern most NC.  Need a better EPS run shortly.

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

More then half the members have atleast some snow in eastern Carolina's...many of those are really light but still counted them.

i know it has been said but even minimal qpf will result in decent accums with the high ratios. every little bit counts. it is promising that we are still a ood ways out and there is plenty of time for qpf to come west. we have always been screwed with the nw trend, it owes us one here.

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