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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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1 minute ago, rduwx said:

The 12z gefs is a little more west of last last nights 0z gefs.  Need this trend to continue.

I don't have access to individual members but by looking at the mean, I'd say there should be some good hits mixed in.

You mean the 06z GEFS? I don't think the 12z is out yet? 

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3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

12z has 9 members that get snows to eastern NC with maybe 5 as far back as RDU.  Mean is 2” back to I-95. 

Very nice. The panels I've been able to see through 108 on the CMC have snow in Eastern NC vs no snow on the 00z run. Big jump NW. 

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4 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Very nice. The panels I've been able to see through 108 on the CMC have snow in Eastern NC vs no snow on the 00z run. Big jump NW. 

The GEFS is really irrelevant with half the members missing....if 15 members were showing 3” back to 95 that would be more promising. CMC still a miss for the most part, I thought the navgem was really close to being big but never phases.  If phase happy JMA doesn’t show a hit that will be concerning.  

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

The GEFS is really irrelevant with half the members missing....if 15 members were showing 3” back to 95 that would be more promising. CMC still a miss for the most part, I thought the navgem was really close to being big but never phases.  If phase happy JMA doesn’t show a hit that will be concerning.  

Use the COD page, I count 8 members now that show a decent to big hit for Eastern NC, up from 5 on the 06z run. The GEFS rarely makes big shifts at this range but if more of the members continue to come on board that will be a good sign. I think Eastern NC looks pretty good on this one IF we have a phase. 

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4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Spread is increasing in the ensembles... models are shifting to a new solution. 

 

ETtracks_neus_storm03_ensemble01.png

To a typical NE special. Man that is a bomb into the gulf of Maine in the UKIE. We have to get lucky one of these times with these darn short waves. So frustrating. 

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Just now, snowlover91 said:

Use the COD page, I count 8 members now that show a decent to big hit for Eastern NC, up from 5 on the 06z run. The GEFS rarely makes big shifts at this range but if more of the members continue to come on board that will be a good sign. I think Eastern NC looks pretty good on this one IF we have a phase. 

Still 4-5 days out so I guess 40% isn’t terrible but kind of need that to be 60% tonight.  There was like 5 members on the eps that has snow on the coast.  That’s very long odds to overcome even with 4+ days to go.  Need a big shift on that.  

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

This could just as easily start trending East , correct? Some of our last few events had us in the bullseye, just to trend S and E , and go poof!

This is a different setup. Our past 2 systems were just a wave that we had to hope would take a perfect track and amplify enough without being suppressed. This is a phasing setup and will depend more on how quickly the two pieces phase. With the fast and amped northern stream we've had this year it wouldn't surprise me if this does phase earlier than currently modeled. 

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