mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, ragtop50 said: GFS says NAM is crazy... GFS is a horrible model, even worse at short range! Ride the hi res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I agree, just posting what Goofy is saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: yeah but which would you rather trust? Yeah this past Wed the hi res models showed the snow and sleet showers we got here way before the GFS caved in and finally got on board inside of 24 hrs of the precip starting....hell if anything the GFS not having it right now is probably a good sign...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Inside 48 hours the only models that should be used are the 12km/3km NAM and RGEM. Hour 114 GFS is oh so close... much better than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Hour 120, not quite there but a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 GFS is an improvement, but not big enough to prevent a fish storm. Good step in the right direction though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 12z NAVGEM with a big jump north and coastal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, snowlover91 said: Hour 120, not quite there but a step in the right direction. yeah with the air mass in place if it can do it i suspect it would be a epic snowstorm for the eastern half's of SC/NC and maybe even coastal GA/FL.....still its a pretty decent improvement and a step in the right direction given the time frame left and it shows how close this pattern is to producing a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: yeah with the air mass in place if it can do it i suspect it would be a epic snowstorm for the eastern half's of SC/NC and maybe even coastal GA/FL.....still its a pretty decent improvement and a step in the right direction given the time frame left and it shows how close this pattern is to producing a big dog. Yeah this run was very close. Slow down the lead wave and speed up the trailing one just a bit and we would be in the game. Certainly within reason that could happen this far out with it being so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Good news is the pattern still looks good for something interesting thru at least the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 very trendy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Yeah coastal areas still in the game here for rare snow Jan 3-4 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 22 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah coastal areas still in the game here for rare snow Jan 3-4 IMO There’s a kicker plus a late injection of the northern stream which helps to straighten the shortwave. Either one would help to turn it quicker if the timing is sooner. The shortwave in question is a pretty good CONUS entry point for the Coastal Carolinas around Glacier Falls National Park, the piece behind it is pretty weak and could be transient with the next model run. I would like to see more northern stream interaction a little quicker vs being dependent on a backside vort to pull the turning axis back west. 18z GFS was not far off, but when is that new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I agree with the last post. Did wx.graphics quit working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I agree with the last post. Did wx.graphics quit working? Going to subscription based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 NAVGEM came in more amped again, two runs in a row it has now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 57 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: NAVGEM came in more amped again, two runs in a row it has now. This was the model of choice for the last event. I give it a little more respect than I did before. Maybe it's sniffing out something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Navgem...have that energy in KY drop down we would have something. Still 5 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 It appears to my novice eye that the 00z NAM is slower with the main s/w and faster with the chaser. Interesting. Let's see if we can get the GFS to continue it's trend of slowing the wave down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 NAM is a dumpster fire for the 3rd/4th threat. We can throw the towel on this one, it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: NAM is a dumpster fire for the 3rd/4th threat. We can throw the towel on this one, it's over. Actually looks a lot better to me at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: NAM is a dumpster fire for the 3rd/4th threat. We can throw the towel on this one, it's over. Looking great for the 1st though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: NAM is a dumpster fire for the 3rd/4th threat. We can throw the towel on this one, it's over. I wouldn't say that. The shortwave behind it is right on its tail. Could catch up and turn the s/w to negative tilt quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: I wouldn't say that. The shortwave behind it is right on its tail. Could catch up and turn the s/w to negative tilt quicker Agree. Have no idea what he's looking at. You ought to see it compared to gfs h5 18z run. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: I wouldn't say that. The shortwave behind it is right on its tail. Could catch up and turn the s/w to negative tilt quicker Shortwave behind it is on it's tail b/c the lead short wave isn't digging and/or turning the corner... There's 0% chance the NAM could pop a storm close enough to coast to affect anyone with that 84hr look. Look at the lead vort over nebrasa/kansas and how positive tilted/non-bundled it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Compare to the GFS which is already starting to flip the lead wave over and has it back in to Colorado.... this is a better look for generating a storm further west, and it's still way to far East for a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Shortwave behind it is on it's tail b/c the lead short wave isn't digging and/or turning the corner... There's 0% chance the NAM could pop a storm close enough to coast to affect anyone with that 84hr look. It would've started digging in future frames. The GFS starting digging sooner because it was faster with the wave. If the NAM had kept going the wave was going to dig just like the GFS IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: It would've started digging in future frames. The GFS starting digging sooner because it was faster with the wave. If the NAM had kept going the wave was going to dig just like the GFS IMO The lead waves are in the same place on the NAM and GFS(central kansas), the NAM is much more strung out and positively tilted though. There is no way the NAM would be able to wrap that shortwave around and form a storm to benefit anyone. I'm the most optimistic person on this board, and I can tell you this threat is 100% dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 NAM lines up nicely with the 12z CMC... see how that evolution turns out for the "storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The 84 hr NAM really doesn’t look all that impressive. That lead wave over NE needs to be much more consolidated. That would allow more digging and open the door for a potential phase. Right now, it’s a strung out mess. Is it better than the 18z? I have no idea. I didn’t look, so I’ll have to rely on your assessment. That said, this threat isn’t off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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