FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm not sure what everyone is talking about. If the dual Low's don't consolidate faster, the big totals are not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 23m23 minutes ago Low center Just of Cape Canaveral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:02 PM, PackWxMan said: I got shredded by the Moderator last night when I mentioned a warm nose.... Expand That's because there is little warm nose and it quickly erodes when the CAA on the backside of the 850 low rushes in. The 3km NAM is the best model for those and it only shows a warm nose along the immediate coast at the beginning of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:01 PM, Regan said: That doesn’t seem right?! Heh? Expand Yes, I'm afraid it is. All models are showing the dual low scenario with the farther offshore low taking over. We essentially dry slot. We can hope that's not correct, but it's hard to believe that every single model can be incorrect at this distance from the event in 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 hrrr has gone east w precip each of the past 4 runs, very similar look to the nam. uh oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:06 PM, snowlover91 said: That's because there is little warm nose and it quickly erodes when the CAA on the backside of the 850 low rushes in. The 3km NAM is the best model for those and it only shows a warm nose along the immediate coast at the beginning of the event. Expand Not here in ILM. The 3k still has a warm nose with the entire event almost done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:02 PM, PackWxMan said: I got shredded by the Moderator last night when I mentioned a warm nose.... Expand Because this is nowhere near the setup where warm noses ruin our chances. This isn’t an overriding event fighting shallow cold air and waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 hrrr almost identical look as the nam 3k. red flags should be going up if you love snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yikes at the 3km nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3K Nam down to just flurries in Raleigh. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k Nam is god awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well this has been fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm sure it's right, but the lack of precipitation here is just astonishing. I'm serious. I'm not sure I've seen this before. But at least we get to experience new stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3km NAM initialized the h5 low much weaker then previous runs and more positively tilted. 3km will whiff most of eastern NC and have big effects north of here too. Pathetic little vort now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:11 PM, Cold Rain said: I'm sure it's right, but the lack of precipitation here is just astonishing. I'm serious. I'm not sure I've seen this before. But at least we get to experience new stuff. Expand I've experienced virga many times. Give me 80* and sun instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Not over and they tweeted start as flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:12 PM, Regan said: Not over and they tweeted start as flurries Expand They're going to have to issue a new Tweet shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is about to bust. Never seen a low that close to the coast not produce more moisture. It is literally right off the coast, and no moisture even in ILM. Seems very suspect, but I am sure it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:02 PM, PackWxMan said: I got shredded by the Moderator last night when I mentioned a warm nose.... Expand On 1/3/2018 at 2:08 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Not here in ILM. The 3k still has a warm nose with the entire event almost done. Expand Guys, seriously chill.... Let the damn thing play out before you go screaming warm nose this and that. You have an arctic air mass entrenched, along with crashing 850's as the storm gets going. Heavy rates will overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Relax y’all. The models are jumping around as expected. I’ll gladly take an inch and call it a day. For wake that is a good snow. We are getting greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We should be tracking current DPs as well latest NAM has them pretty low hence no moisture, HRRR a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We're at go time folks. It's time to look at radar returns. This looks much better than any model is showing (except maybe the RAP): https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Anyone thinking we might get a very positive surprise? 980mb lows tracking Hatteras with locked in cold air....it doesn't get better than that. I know the models are locked on the lack of moisture, but that just doesn't make any kind of logical sense with anything we've seen for two decades around here. That oughta be a pipeline straight into eastern/central NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We are going to need to see a strong thunderstorm complex developing over GA pretty soon, if we are to get any surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12z 3kNAM lol - that can't be right - its not even depicting current conditions correctly at the start it looks to me. Dubious. It must have initialized wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think dewpoints are going to be key! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 For us RDU folks, we really want precip to get at least (westward) to Columbia. Current radar looks good(precip moving and building NE), but we'll need to see if the precip starts moving more easterly as the low down in Florida moves NE (..that would doom us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RAP (old school RUC) still looks pretty good and somewhat more realistic than the NAM. Overall I like the way the way the models have trended aloft since 00z, but the dry air per the latest soundings near RDU is the issue (skew t's show some insanely low Dewpoints around 800mb (-40C lol)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:30 PM, Jet Stream Rider said: 12z 3kNAM lol - that can't be right - its not even depicting current conditions correctly at the start it looks to me. Dubious. It must have initialized wrong. Expand precisely here we are a 1430z I dare someone to show me a current surface map with a 1006 forming way out east like that look you see that little convergence of NW and NE winds, thats our path of least resistance and guess what? That's the gulf stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The low develops just in time to slam NE NC and SE VA with a death band, still 12"+ for mby. Unfortunately, RDU gets dryslotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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