BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:32 PM, Rankin5150 said: Whats up Jeremy! It will be interesting to follow the Hi-Res/Short Term Models tonight/tomorrow, as well as the radar. Hoping we can sneak in on some of the action. Hope all is well and you all had a Happy New Year! Expand yeah, all is well. hope it is with you too. I am pulling for us to somehow get into the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:37 PM, Queencitywx said: yeah, all is well. hope it is with you too. I am pulling for us to somehow get into the game.It’s gonna take one hit out of the ballpark for it to throw some flakes back this far W&NW, but you two def have a better slim shot than I. We’re going to have to wait 7-10 more days for our shot!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:43 PM, BIG FROSTY said: It’s gonna take one hit out of the ballpark for it to throw some flakes back this far W&NW, but you two def have a better slim shot than I. We’re going to have to wait 7-10 more days for our shot!! . Expand I’d take that than possibly 7 years here at the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Comparing Boxing Day, Dec 2004 and what UKmet is showing for SLP track, we are roughly in between those two events. SLP track really lines up well with 2004 in the preceding panel too. Only difference is this SLP will be much much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:32 PM, kvegas-wx said: Right....and another 50 mile shift west, albeit unlikely as the global and hi-res models are coming to a truce, would still only skirt RDU and maybe toss a flurry west of there. So for the vast many here, this is looking more and more like a non-event. It's a coastal folks, we just need to accept it and say congrats to dozens of posters who don't have a dog in many of our fights. Expand You sound like you've reached the bargaining phase lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:49 PM, packbacker said: Comparing Boxing Day, Dec 2004 and what UKmet is showing for SLP track, we are roughly in between those two events. SLP track really lines up well with 2004 in the preceding panel too. Only difference is this SLP will be much much stronger. Expand Stronger, with less precip on the NW??? I've read the tweets on why this could be, but I still wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 230 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow is expected along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor. Total snow accumulations ranging from 1 to 3 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina. * WHEN...Snow will spread into the Clinton and Fayetteville areas around or just after noon Wednesday, and spread northward to Wilson and Tarboro around 5 PM EST. The snow will taper off to flurries after midnight. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Frigid temperatures over the past few days will allow the snow to accumulate to road surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:49 PM, HKY_WX said: You sound like you've reached the bargaining phase lol... Expand Even for Jan 2000 storm I never dreamed snow would make it back to the Yadkin river, yet it did. Dont think it will in this case but you never know. Capture will be too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 sw looks a little better at hr12 to me, maybe a little more interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:52 PM, CentralNC said: Even for Jan 2000 storm I never dreamed snow would make it back to the Yadkin river, yet it did. Dont think it will in this case but you never know. Capture will be too far east. Expand I think we'll see further corrections west. I think anyone east of the foothills are still in the game for at least a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:49 PM, HKY_WX said: You sound like you've reached the bargaining phase lol... Expand Lol. Nope, I've punted, moved on, and trying to figure out what to wear to pull down the lawn decorations this week. Just glad it won't be in 2-4" of snow. Mother in law lives in Washington so I'm excited for her but thinking she may see cold rain while PVG sees heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:04 PM, HKY_WX said: Vort #1 appears to be spinning it's way SE in western Kansas as we speak, per the WV. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3®ion=us Expand Implications for down the road? I guess you will NOT be in HKY for this one eh? LOL. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It looks like everything is in about the same spot as last run through 18, same exact low strength too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 7:51 PM, packfan98 said: Stronger, with less precip on the NW??? I've read the tweets on why this could be, but I still wonder. Expand If I was to draw a snow map the Dec 2004 map looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Yikes -- just when TLH pulls the trigger on WSW, the 18z NAM shifts precip to the east in the Big Bend -- putting Tallahassee on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Only thing I see on the 18z NAM is a slightly more negative leading wave through 24. Where it goes now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/1/2018 at 4:52 PM, Lookout said: i'm a bit surprised it didn't really change the back edge of the precip further inland much, despite the better look. Expand Lookout are you still thinking the snow gets pretty close (within 50-75 miles) to your area? That piece of energy you mentioned yesterday that was perhaps going to slide through AL and GA, is that still showing on the models? I haven't heard anything about it today. I'm off work this week so I'm going to chase this storm leaving from ATL, and head down 75 south, just trying to figure out how much further south from Macon I'm going to need to go. Free places to stay in Macon versus needing to get a hotel if go much south from Macon. Looks like the snow may be 100 miles or so south of macon towards maybe Vidalia GA? I'm wanting to get into some good snow, don't care much for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Probably 75 miles NE of 12z at 24 hours with the surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Interesting. Nothing has really changed, but all of a sudden not feeling as good about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 pretty much identical precip wise to 12z at hr27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 closed secondary low forming close to the coast at 24 again precip areas will not be hashed out until within 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looking at the soundings, there's slightly better moisture available at KCLT by 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 More negative tilt through hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I dont think this run is going to be as good as 12Z, precip not as heavy inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 hr27, clt on the edge of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 8:04 PM, ajr said: More negative tilt through hr 24 Expand But you can also see everything shifted slightly east with the ridge. At hour 30 heights are lower in the east too, should be east of 12z, maybe just slightly hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 8:05 PM, WeathermanB said: ECMWF has low pretty close to the coast, about 100 or so miles offshore. Expect bigger snowfall totals for mid-atlantic Expand Low doesn't seem to matter though. 957, but precip shield is exact same, if not East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 8:04 PM, ajr said: More negative tilt through hr 24 Expand Look at the height line cutting thru GA and SC...it's actually more positive tilt this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 8:05 PM, DopplerWx said: hr27, clt on the edge of precip Expand Yeah but if you look at the soundings, there's just too much dry air. It does look like it's snowing in Lancaster, though. Last run, I wouldnt have said that. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 8:08 PM, Cobalt said: Low doesn't seem to matter though. 957, but precip shield is exact same, if not East Expand Yeah it's a little underdone to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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