Hvward Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 So heres sign #1 that this is going to overperform.. Odessa & Midland, TX are seeing snow right now, and its been snowing for the last 2-3 hours. Per Midland NWS twitter some areas have a dusting. No models showed this, not even the 12z NAM 3km or the most recent HRRR run. They showed a blip of snow possible in Central TX, but nothing in far West TX. Thought that was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:14 PM, tramadoc said: Precipitation fields moving west a little, but overall the LP hasn't really moved west. Expand One theme is emerging, the globals are playing catch-up to the higher resolution models. In normal cases, this would be a strong indicator that the final track and strength has not been determined yet. Trust the short term high res models. They have a better handle on what is happening with this evolving pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:19 PM, Hvward said: So heres sign #1 that this is going to overperform.. Odessa & Midland, TX are seeing snow right now, and its been snowing for the last 2-3 hours. Per Midland NWS twitter some areas have a dusting. No models showed this, not even the 12z NAM 3km or the most recent HRRR run. They showed a blip of snow possible in Central TX, but nothing in far West TX. Thought that was interesting. Expand What kind of dewpoints were we talking out there? Were they a little more moist to support this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:18 PM, Queencitywx said: Look at the 3K NAM. We aren’t too far out of the ballgame. I still doubt it happens but it’s enough to keep me interested. Expand we will need the reliable nw trend until zero hour but i think we have a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 beginning to look as if the "weather" pays NO attention to any model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Things are getting very very intriguing. Gonna have to stay with this until the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:19 PM, Hvward said: So heres sign #1 that this is going to overperform.. Odessa & Midland, TX are seeing snow right now, and its been snowing for the last 2-3 hours. Per Midland NWS twitter some areas have a dusting. No models showed this, not even the 12z NAM 3km or the most recent HRRR run. They showed a blip of snow possible in Central TX, but nothing in far West TX. Thought that was interesting.I lived close to the Permian Basin in San Angelo, TX. If you think people in NC can't drive in snow, carry your happy butt to West TX when it snows and take a look at people that really can't drive in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 956, my goodness....still need one more shift left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:24 PM, packbacker said: 956, my goodness....still need one more shift left Expand For the triangle, I would like to see that SLP around Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:58 PM, jjwxman said: The 16z HRRR may be on to something at the end of it's run blowing up convection in Northern Florida. None of the Global models have this feature: Expand If I didn't know any better, just looking at that radar presentation, I would swear that there is a low trying to form in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:21 PM, Buddy1987 said: What kind of dewpoints were we talking out there? Were they a little more moist to support this? Expand In Midland it's currently 23 degrees with dewpoint of 15. Light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:21 PM, Buddy1987 said: What kind of dewpoints were we talking out there? Were they a little more moist to support this? Expand Temp of 23 degrees right now In Odessa with a dew point of 14 degrees. HRRR & Nam 3k seemed to model the dew point correctly for this point in time, the precipitation is just absent. I do however believe that dew points will be a little warm then forecasted, widening the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:29 PM, Hvward said: Temp of 23 degrees right now In Odessa with a dew point of 14 degrees. HRRR & Nam 3k seemed to model the dew point correctly for this point in time, the precipitation is just absent. I do however believe that dew points with be a little warm than forecasted, widen the baroclinic zone. Expand Thank you for the response! Good trends indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:23 PM, Tar Heel Snow said: Things are getting very very intriguing. Gonna have to stay with this until the very end. Expand AMEN! I am watching this to the end. If my area does not see anything, then I will be happy to see how this all ends up and HAPPY for our Brothers & Sisters on the Coast/Sandhill areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:25 PM, HKY_WX said: For the triangle, I would like to see that SLP around Hatteras. Expand One more shift left to Hatteras will require a surface LP to initiate in the GM. I just don't see how this can keep jogging 75 miles west over and over again if the primary LP fires off the coast of GA/FL. (I'm learning so please educate me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:25 PM, HKY_WX said: For the triangle, I would like to see that SLP around Hatteras. Expand Naw it' fine were it is .....really though it should be pummeling most of the central and eastern part of NC with the low there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:29 PM, Hvward said: Temp of 23 degrees right now In Odessa with a dew point of 14 degrees. HRRR & Nam 3k seemed to model the dew point correctly for this point in time, the precipitation is just absent. I do however believe that dew points with be a little warm than forecasted, widen the baroclinic zone. Expand Wouldn't that insinuate that all layers were saturate to make it to the ground, where the global models are handling incorrectly? Will it make it back to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:22 PM, DopplerWx said: we will need the reliable nw trend until zero hour but i think we have a shot Expand We’ve also got pretty good ratios in our back pocket and the ground is froze solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Houston, we have a (forecast) problem .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:27 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: If I didn't know any better, just looking at that radar presentation, I would swear that there is a low trying to form in the Gulf. Expand I saw that too. Mind you, it's just one model one. But I am intrigued, especially now. If we did see a low form in the GOM, wouldn't that put more parts of GA, SC and NC in the game? Or is the lp too far south to make a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Allan's first call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:25 PM, HKY_WX said: For the triangle, I would like to see that SLP around Hatteras. Expand I would take just splitting the difference. Just want to get into the .2” qpf range. Getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:33 PM, CLTwx said: Wouldn't that insinuate that all layers were saturate to make it to the ground, where the global models are handling incorrectly? Will it make it back to you? Expand Looking back at yesterdays 12z run of the 3km NAM and Dew points around the area of Odessa, TX where forecasted to be around 8 degrees at this time.. so looks like it busted by 5+ degrees 24 hours out. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:43 PM, packbacker said: I would take just splitting the difference. Just want to get into the .2” qpf range. Getting closer. Expand Let’s be generous and put you in .4, which would probably get me into two tenths. Seriously. If we keep seeing this thing move west, it’s possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:41 PM, tramadoc said: Allan's first call map. Expand Looks like he’s blending. He warns of changes. Interesting to see the euro and gfs baby step west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:43 PM, packbacker said: I would take just splitting the difference. Just want to get into the .2” qpf range. Getting closer. Expand Yeah I feel you. Ratios look to be great and nothing will be wasted on cooling the ground for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 we are seeing less QPF to the NW and W because the modeling is expecting us to have a lot of virga due to the current airmass? Just a theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:46 PM, Queencitywx said: we are seeing less QPF to the NW and W because the modeling is expecting us to have a lot of virga due to the current airmass? Just a theory Expand I noticed this yesterday. The 3km NAM had precip at the surface that matched directly to dew points of around 20 and above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 6:32 PM, kvegas-wx said: One more shift left to Hatteras will require a surface LP to initiate in the GM. I just don't see how this can keep jogging 75 miles west over and over again if the primary LP fires off the coast of GA/FL. (I'm learning so please educate me) Expand Yep, will be hard. This is 24-30 hours from Atlantic low forming. Need this due south of Charleston not ILM. We will see if there is a miracle...doubt it though. Still, 990 low there is big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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