snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:38 PM, DopplerWx said: yea def more phasing and interaction this run but qpf just isn't budging. Expand That will change. Just notice how much it has changed in GA/SC as we've gotten under 36 hours on the GFS. You'll see the same this afternoon and tonight as the GFS starts picking up on the mesoscale features. It still won't be anything like the NAM or RGEM because it is having convective feedback issues IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What the heck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:42 PM, snowlover91 said: That will change. Just notice how much it has changed in GA/SC as we've gotten under 36 hours on the GFS. You'll see the same this afternoon and tonight as the GFS starts picking up on the mesoscale features. It still won't be anything like the NAM or RGEM because it is having convective feedback issues IMO. Expand true. nam and gfs have both seen shifting the slp closer to the fl coast every run, if we can keep that trend going until zero hour we will all be in business. luckily the models have rarely had the detail locked in 36hrs out the past few winters so there is hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:44 PM, DopplerWx said: true. nam and gfs have both seen shifting the slp closer to the fl coast every run, if we can keep that trend going until zero hour we will all be in business. luckily the models have rarely had the detail locked in 36hrs out the past few winters so there is hope. Expand Look at the GFS change for GA and SC, they're just 24 hours out and look at the difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:40 PM, packbacker said: GFS is such a letdown...H5 low shifted west again and nothing. Hard to ignore that... Expand The globals have been consistent as they could be on the lack of qpf. It really is a battle between the hi -res and the globals in regards to the precip shield and amounts. Sure I want to go all weenie and believe the 3k and the rgem as they both give me 8+ inches of snow but I won't ignore the globals consistency either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS does get a little more precip west, but barely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:38 PM, DopplerWx said: yea def more phasing and interaction this run but qpf just isn't budging. Expand There was a westward shift, but only ~30 miles. We need larger westward adjustments at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 CMC with BIG SHIFT WEST in qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:45 PM, shaggy said: The globals have been consistent as they could be on the lack of qpf. It really is a battle between the hi -res and the globals in regards to the precip shield and amounts. Sure I want to go all weenie and believe the 3k and the rgem as they both give me 8+ inches of snow but I won't ignore the globals consistency either. Expand No they haven't. Just look at the GFS changes I posted above for GA, HUGE increase and big differences for them. CMC just came in much snowier for a lot of us. High res models > Globals inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The fact that there’s a West shift on the gfs period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Look at these two CMC maps and tell me the globals aren't playing catch up to the meso models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:46 PM, snowlover91 said: CMC with BIG SHIFT WEST in qpf. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018010212/gem_mslp_pcpn_seus_6.png Expand 12z yesterday: 12z today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:41 PM, Regan said: So best answer please, how long will the nws and tv mets hug the euro until the cannot any longer? Do they take the chance of being weenies or do they wait to literal last minute. Don’t envy them at all. Nope. Expand Completely agree. Intrigued to see Huffman's first map later. He'll factor in everything in his own way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW The 09z HRRR Ensemble is not enthused about snow west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 CMC has that secondary coastal low pulling its weight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 We also saw how the NAM developed that secondary low closer to the coast and it becomes the primary; whereas the other models keep the first low the primary. We may not have a good idea until go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Everyone thought the meso models were way off base but here we are inside 48 hours and the globals are making jumps towards them.. Expect this continue. As I've said before, I always go with a blend of the meso models inside 48 hours, they are just far superior and pick up features that globals don't at extended leads or simply don't resolve properly. Look at new CMC vs old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:59 PM, FallsLake said: We also saw how the NAM developed that secondary low closer to the coast and it becomes the primary; whereas the other models keep the first low the primary. We may not have a good idea until go time. Expand It’s because of this I think (IMO) the tv mets and nws should risk being weenies. This last minute mess, even an inch or two, shuts down Wake. Especially with these temps. I’d rather have a plethora of hotdogs in my freezer than to have 2 hungry children and no food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 When was the last time you remember seeing the freezing rain line make it almost to Ocala? Yeah, me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:54 PM, Bryan63 said: Interesting note by a met in Connecticut Expand Granted being in Connecticut, everything he's looking at is different for that area. But for here, saying anything needs to be blended is stupid. Mesos are solid and all the globals are playing catch up. No blending needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The latest SREF snow mean is west or at least more robust (compared from 03 to 09). Gets the 4" line right to Raleigh now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 For the triangle folks, we need to the SLP to get to roughly the HAT point. That's kind of the benchmark if you want a major/historic storm. As of now, I am seeing this as a Jan2000 storm shifted east about 75 miles. That would put Greenville/Elizabeth City/Tidewater area as the major winners(12+) at this point in time w/ Raleigh in the 1-3 range. But keep in mind the last minute shifts we often see in the models, degree of strength/convection firing offshore on this one (Could influence downstream ridging via latent heat release) and the gulf stream. These mesoscale features can easily throw off a SLP 50 or 100 miles. This is what causes surprise snowstorms. Also, one of the most important things is often the 500 and 300mb patterns, which all look classic to me for the Triangle. Surface features are often the last feature to correct on the mods. Best of luck to everyone on this one, as it's going to crush some board members hearts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:14 PM, Bryan63 said: Expand Webb with the bomb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:14 PM, HKY_WX said: For the triangle folks, we need to the SLP to get to roughly the HAT point. That's kind of the benchmark if you want a major/historic storm. As of now, I am seeing this as a Jan2000 storm shifted east about 75 miles. That would put Greenville/Elizabeth City/Tidewater area as the major winners(12+) at this point in time w/ Raleigh in the 1-3 range. But keep in mind the last minute shifts we often see in the models, degree of strength/convection fire offshore on this one (Could influence downstream latent heat/ridging) and the gulf stream. These mesoscale features can easily through off a SLP 50 or 100 miles. This is what causes surprise snowstorms. Also, one of the most important things if often the 500 and 300mb patterns, which all look classic to me for the Triangle. Surface features are often the last feature to correct on the mods. Best of luck to everyone on this one, as it's going to crush some board members hearts. Expand The Charlotte area is pretty much out of the game, UNLESS we can get a decent shift and/or some factors to play, so we can get some good banding to overcome the dry air. Ugh...the DRY AIR. SMDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Congrats everyone else as usual. Maybe I will make an iceman with a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Even the underamped Navgem showing the potential for the secondary low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:21 PM, fountainguy97 said: Yeah I don’t think one model shows anywhere near that amount west of I-95 Expand Well, the NAM does, but I agree. That's a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:18 PM, Rankin5150 said: The Charlotte area is pretty much out of the game, UNLESS we can get a decent shift and/or some factors to play, so we can get some good banding to overcome the dry air. Ugh...the DRY AIR. SMDH Expand It's still possible to see some light stuff out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:19 PM, Justicebork said: It takes giant brass balls to put out a map like that when literally nothing shows an event of that severity between US-1 and I-95. Expand We've become really reliant on model data to tell us what to forecast. I don't know whether that's a bad thing or not. But for public consumption, you rarely have a met step out against model consensus and issue a forecast. Webb has been consistently arguing for a farther westward system, in terms of it's precipitation output, based on meteorological rationale and historical pattern recognition. In all honesty, it could go in several different directions, but he's expecting the models to correct to his thinking. I don't disagree with him. I just always feel better when the guidance starts to show it. It's great that we've seen some of the globals move west today, rather than the mesoscales cave the other way. We're on the edge of a knife here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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