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January 3-4 Storm Thread part II


rduwx

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  On 12/30/2017 at 10:01 PM, ajr said:

This look in the Bahamas is interesting... almost as if the model can’t decide where to form a low. The two low pressure centers next to each other seems strange. 

C6F8EB9B-08E6-43A9-B7B4-5D03D1E4D7CC.png

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Hasn't really consolidated the energy.. there's a small leading wave in the STJ that brings the LP out there.

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You can see what's causing the problem...there is this stout little vort over the Bahama's that comes out of the gulf and develops a surface low, that's the 2nd low east of the low we are hoping for.  You can see on the first two images below this occurring.

 At hour 96 we finally see our low pop nice and tucked in close to FL, that's the 3rd image.  I have no idea why that rouge vort is there.  Would think at 96 with the SLP tucked in nicely with the h5 low it's showing it should have been more west. 

500hv.conus.png

prateptype_cat.conus.png

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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  On 12/30/2017 at 10:24 PM, packbacker said:

You can see what's causing the problem...there is this stout little vort over the Bahama's that comes out of the gulf and develops a surface low, that's the 2nd low east of the low we are hoping for.  You can see on the first two images below this occurring.

 At hour 96 we finally see our low pop nice and tucked in close to FL, that's the 3rd image.  I have no idea why that rouge vort is there.  Would think at 96 with the SLP tucked in nicely with the h5 low it's showing it should have been more west. 

500hv.conus.png

prateptype_cat.conus.png

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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Smart catch. If that is not there, low forms further NE where their is more baroclinicity. 

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NWS Tallahassee seems to think there could be a chance for GA/FL/AL areas if this occurs far enough west or gets stronger than expected.

  Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
301 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017
The main shortwave to watch for any precipitation is
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Right now with a very dry
airmass expected to be ahead of it and little moisture advection,
it looks like a dry system for the local area. However, the
atmosphere will likely be cold enough to support wintry precip
should the shortwave dig a little farther west or come in stronger
than expected, so it bears watching.
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  On 12/30/2017 at 10:24 PM, packbacker said:

You can see what's causing the problem...there is this stout little vort over the Bahama's that comes out of the gulf and develops a surface low, that's the 2nd low east of the low we are hoping for.  You can see on the first two images below this occurring.

 At hour 96 we finally see our low pop nice and tucked in close to FL, that's the 3rd image.  I have no idea why that rouge vort is there.  Would think at 96 with the SLP tucked in nicely with the h5 low it's showing it should have been more west. 

 

 

 

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Good catch pack...Like you, looking at H5, I thought this was going to be a good run.  If it isn't one thing, it's another...LOL!

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  On 12/30/2017 at 10:48 PM, packbacker said:

No clue what the navgem is doing...not sure why these aren’t phasing. I am sure it’s correct but just don’t understand. 

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2017123018&prod=500&tau=096&set=All

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How is that not a phase?

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