Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:45 PM, Cary_Snow95 said: The run is so good the computer can't even process all the snow Expand A precaution to keep weenies' minds from exploding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 CMC looks like a big jump NW, here's hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 The 12z gefs is a little more west of last last nights 0z gefs. Need this trend to continue. I don't have access to individual members but by looking at the mean, I'd say there should be some good hits mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:58 PM, rduwx said: The 12z gefs is a little more west of last last nights 0z gefs. Need this trend to continue. I don't have access to individual members but by looking at the mean, I'd say there should be some good hits mixed in. Expand You mean the 06z GEFS? I don't think the 12z is out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:00 PM, snowlover91 said: You mean the 06z GEFS? I don't think the 12z is out yet? Expand No, it's the 12z mean. It comes out fast on stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:01 PM, rduwx said: No, it's the 12z mean. It comes out fast on stormvista. Expand How does it compare to the 06z GEFS? The 06z was wetter and further west than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 12z has 9 members that get snows to eastern NC with maybe 5 as far back as RDU. Mean is 2” back to I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:03 PM, snowlover91 said: How does it compare to the 06z GEFS? The 06z was wetter and further west than 00z. Expand I'd say it's very close to the 6z gefs. Maybe a touch west but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:04 PM, packbacker said: 12z has 9 members that get snows to eastern NC with maybe 5 as far back as RDU. Mean is 2” back to I-95. Expand Very nice. The panels I've been able to see through 108 on the CMC have snow in Eastern NC vs no snow on the 00z run. Big jump NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The UKMet run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:08 PM, snowlover91 said: Very nice. The panels I've been able to see through 108 on the CMC have snow in Eastern NC vs no snow on the 00z run. Big jump NW. Expand The GEFS is really irrelevant with half the members missing....if 15 members were showing 3” back to 95 that would be more promising. CMC still a miss for the most part, I thought the navgem was really close to being big but never phases. If phase happy JMA doesn’t show a hit that will be concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Spread is increasing in the ensembles... models are shifting to a new solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:15 PM, packbacker said: The GEFS is really irrelevant with half the members missing....if 15 members were showing 3” back to 95 that would be more promising. CMC still a miss for the most part, I thought the navgem was really close to being big but never phases. If phase happy JMA doesn’t show a hit that will be concerning. Expand Use the COD page, I count 8 members now that show a decent to big hit for Eastern NC, up from 5 on the 06z run. The GEFS rarely makes big shifts at this range but if more of the members continue to come on board that will be a good sign. I think Eastern NC looks pretty good on this one IF we have a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ukis has a much deeper trof than the GFS digging in the SW at 72 almost due north/south,lower heights.Also the phaser is a bit quicker. Also the heights in the SE rise at 96,much better look with a sharper trof digging in. Just have to keep watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:17 PM, SN_Lover said: Spread is increasing in the ensembles... models are shifting to a new solution. Expand That's interesting. Never considered it when ensembles spread back out from an earlier 'honed' position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Here is the 06z GEFS vs 12z. Nice uptick in QPF for Eastern NC. 06z 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:17 PM, SN_Lover said: Spread is increasing in the ensembles... models are shifting to a new solution. Expand To a typical NE special. Man that is a bomb into the gulf of Maine in the UKIE. We have to get lucky one of these times with these darn short waves. So frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:20 PM, snowlover91 said: Use the COD page, I count 8 members now that show a decent to big hit for Eastern NC, up from 5 on the 06z run. The GEFS rarely makes big shifts at this range but if more of the members continue to come on board that will be a good sign. I think Eastern NC looks pretty good on this one IF we have a phase. Expand Still 4-5 days out so I guess 40% isn’t terrible but kind of need that to be 60% tonight. There was like 5 members on the eps that has snow on the coast. That’s very long odds to overcome even with 4+ days to go. Need a big shift on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I vote that 977 member off of the VA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Remember Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Here is the UK for those interested. It's a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 UKMet has good precip back to Raleigh. See RaleighWx on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Big nudge NW on the UK. This has really got me interested now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:35 PM, snowlover91 said: Here is the UK for those interested. It's a bomb. Talk about that shield moving west. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 UKMet can be a little frisky at times with overamping, but trend is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ukie has a big 1037 high just east of Newfoundland at 120.That might slow it down a bit and not let it escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:39 PM, HKY_WX said: The pattern is supportive of a bomb. Just need to get lucky. Expand Needs to bomb west of Jan 2000. I can't take another one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This could just as easily start trending East , correct? Some of our last few events had us in the bullseye, just to trend S and E , and go poof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 5:54 PM, mackerel_sky said: This could just as easily start trending East , correct? Some of our last few events had us in the bullseye, just to trend S and E , and go poof! Expand This is a different setup. Our past 2 systems were just a wave that we had to hope would take a perfect track and amplify enough without being suppressed. This is a phasing setup and will depend more on how quickly the two pieces phase. With the fast and amped northern stream we've had this year it wouldn't surprise me if this does phase earlier than currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Lets do some Euro pbp. @Wow you german model might pull through again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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