Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 12z GFS as far west as the NAM and a bit stronger. That's a good sign. Eastern areas still in play possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 3:52 PM, Wow said: 12z GFS as far west as the NAM and a bit stronger. That's a good sign. Eastern areas still in play possibly. Expand Gfs has made a ginormous jump toward the euro/uk camp this morning. Any more of a westward shift and this thing gets super interesting. SO close to a phase at 108. The northern stream energy is digging even more this go around. Just barely missed capturing the energy off the FL coast. This one has piqued my interest now as well. Good model runs to start the day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 We lose our HP. We need to start worrying about BL temps if this does come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:04 PM, WidreMann said: We lose our HP. We need to start worrying about BL temps if this does come west. Expand That's why you want a quicker phase here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looks east to me. Looks like west trend has stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 UK looks really good...but not as good as the Pokémon model. I hate myself for even looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:07 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Looks east to me. Looks like west trend has stopped. Expand This is the time period when the models tend to *lose* storms, so don't be surprised if it heads a little more east again. The time to really watch is within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:06 PM, Wow said: That's why you want a quicker phase here. Expand Oh but you know that what we'll actually get is one sheared out S/W the messes up the phase, and then the bigger one comes two days later when all the cold is truly scoured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:09 PM, packbacker said: UK looks really good...but not as good as the Pokémon model. I hate myself for even looking Expand Don't do this to yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:07 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Looks east to me. Looks like west trend has stopped. Expand The initial energy that originates in the plains is what you want to watch imo. It made a significant shift to the west during the timeframe. It slowed down considerably, allowing the n/s energy diving down to catch up and just miss something that would be obv much more beneficial. If that energy continues to shift westward then this could become a much bigger deal. Edit: the n/s energy is a little too flat and progressive as well. Need it to do more of a dig toward LA rather than FL. Something else to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:06 PM, Wow said: That's why you want a quicker phase here.Yup. I can handle BL if it trends back.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Yeah UKMet looks as good, if not maybe a little better this run. Should have precip in coastal/eastern Carolinas. IMO, getting precip back into central NC is a low chance deal, but we'll see. Looking better for coastal areas though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The other nice thing about this storm, potentially, is that if it really winds up, it could give us a little bit of a -NAO and a 50/50 low. It could set the stage for further storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 UKMet brings the 850 0 deg line west into the western NC sounds up to Newport News, VA....so it may even have some precip back to Raleigh and Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 One thing that seems certain, the cold shot after that monster barrels up the coast will be the nastiest of all combined with strong NW winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:16 PM, griteater said: UKMet brings the 850 0 deg line west into the western NC sounds up to Newport News, VA....so it may even have some precip back to Raleigh and Richmond Expand So, too warm for snow at the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:25 PM, Queencitywx said: Expand Liechtenstein model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:26 PM, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: So, too warm for snow at the coast? Expand You would be right on the line there with the UKMet, but overall you are in a good spot with this one with the sfc low well off the coast...have to see how it trends. 12z CMC run is coming out slowly today...it's usually rocket fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:16 PM, griteater said: UKMet brings the 850 0 deg line west into the western NC sounds up to Newport News, VA....so it may even have some precip back to Raleigh and Richmond Expand It has to have precip inland some...it doesn’t get going though until it reaches our latitude but would think for eastern VA north it’s hammer time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Here is the German total snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The pattern is supportive of a bomb. Just need to get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Interested to see the euro in a couple hours. Now that wx.graphics is a subscription service, is there any other place to see the euro/eps outputs free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 CMC is stuck at 30...is that a sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:41 PM, griteater said: CMC is stuck at 30...is that a sign? Expand The run is so good the computer can't even process all the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:41 PM, griteater said: CMC is stuck at 30...is that a sign? Expand Heh. Wadesboro got half an inch QPF on the German. We need 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:40 PM, PackGrad05 said: Interested to see the euro in a couple hours. Now that wx.graphics is a subscription service, is there any other place to see the euro/eps outputs free? Expand Tropical Tidbits has parts of them https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 2:20 PM, Seminole said: 12/30 12Z NAM is one big mess for North Georgia by hr 33. Sleet/Ice event for all of GA north of Macon. Expand The UKMET is fairly close right now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:40 PM, PackGrad05 said: Interested to see the euro in a couple hours. Now that wx.graphics is a subscription service, is there any other place to see the euro/eps outputs free? Expand Weather.us is still free and has EPS charts by city and the Euro output with various features you can select. Here's a link. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/800-w-320-n/acc-total-precipitation.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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