rduwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The first thread was deleted by the original starter. I believe there still needs to be a thread for this time frame. The pattern looks good and the euro had small amounts of snow on January 3rd but in my opinion it was really close to a big dog. I'm not sure if I can post my maps but if someone has access to the americanwx models, look at the 500mb map around hr 150 and post if you want. Let the talks begin and hopefully we can reel in a storm. Happy reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 So, both the Euro and Euro Ensemble Mean look pretty good for the late blooming system on Jan 3. CMC has it as well. It's too far off the coast on the GFS and it looks like the UKMet would be a miss as well. Comparing the models, the ones that have the storm (Euro, CMC) have a taller western ridge. The unicorn hunt continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Surface Low locations on the Euro Ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 EPS and EC OP snowfall for day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 850s as the system moves in. Would be some fantastic ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Geez i almost dread following this one now after the last 2 went to crap. Is this our last good chance for a while? What exactly is breaking the tall ridge down once these threats geat close? And hey at least Nov and December were below normal temp wise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, Poimen said: EPS and EC OP snowfall for day 8. Let’s hope we can reel this one in. Hey, batting .333 will land you an All Star spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Yep this was suppose to be our third of three winter storms and the first two disappeared, hate to get to excited just yet, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 With those low positions there are bound to be some big hits on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The GEFS says nada- either New Years eve or 3-4. Not buying it right now, as stated above, the 27-29th threat disappeared, as did the NYE "storm". As we get closer the models are getting rid of these threats, hard to get a decent storm when we are basically in a WNW upper flow. Prolonged cold, yes- much if any snow, not seeing it at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 A great post from the foothills weather network. Also, I hate waiting. http://www.foothillsweathernetwork.com/weatherbriefing/2017/12/27/why-no-winter-weather-in-this-cold-pattern-we-are-in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, msuwx said: 850s as the system moves in. Would be some fantastic ratios. Here's a chart of snow ratios to surface temps (not 850s): SurfaceTempSnowRatio.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 pieces of energy on the Euro that trying to phase together day 6, looks to be fun. That's 2 runs of the Op Euro and EPS that support this and CMC/CMCE do too. Quickly looked at the members...roughly half show an event in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 One thing I noticed with the 6z GFS compared to 0z at hour 222 (when the CMC puts us in the freezer) is even it trended colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 We have the cold now and no moisture can get in, next week we'll warm up just enough then the moisture will pour in for a cold rain, go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, fritschy said: We have the cold now and no moisture can get in, next week we'll warm up just enough then the moisture will pour in for a cold rain, go figure. can’t win for losing around here, normally we need a dominant high to our north but this time it butchers any storm that comes close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: can’t win for losing around here, normally we need a dominant high to our north but this time it butchers any storm that comes close that's what I'm talking about, perfect cold H pressure and we can't get the moisture in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 What...the low forms down in the Bahama's. That's got to be a first...a piece of energy diving over a PNA ridge in SW Canada spawns a low down in the Bahama's and rides up the east coast. And I thought the new years threat was going to be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 LOL...the Navgem forms it over the keys and actually get's it close but the ridge in the west is sliding east so it gets shunted OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 same old same old, the H pressure up north is to strong and next it will not be strong enough, the old thread the needle around here. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: LOL...the Navgem forms it over the keys and actually get's it close but the ridge in the west is sliding east so it gets shunted OTS. I would not sleep on any of these LR threats. Just a small change in the strength or position of the trough axis, and it's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: What...the low forms down in the Bahama's. That's got to be a first...a piece of energy diving over a PNA ridge in SW Canada spawns a low down in the Bahama's and rides up the east coast. And I thought the new years threat was going to be tough. there is a first time for everything 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...the Navgem forms it over the keys and actually get's it close but the ridge in the west is sliding east so it gets shunted OTS. at least it is a slightly better look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: there is a first time for everything at least it is a slightly better look Yep if we can get the NW trend to happen we're be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I would not sleep on any of these LR threats. Just a small change in the strength or position of the trough axis, and it's game on. It's definitely an odd setup with 3 pieces of energy needed to pull this off and the placement of the ridge axes. But, the past few runs of the EPS has atleast trended in the right direction, but we have typically lost these "potential" events once we hit approached day 5 and that would be today/tomorrow. This threat is by far the most complicated of the 3 we will end up tracking...but could be the largest threat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I would not sleep on any of these LR threats. Just a small change in the strength or position of the trough axis, and it's game on. I agree. Models are starting to line up. However, the norm over the last few weeks have been 3+ days does not equal anything on the models. Need to get something under the 3 day mark, IMO. I guess someone needs to make a snow cake or start the old fashion snow dance. I know folks back in early December got some good Jeb walks in. We need a broad-wide Jeb walk out of this pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 GEFS is over Bermuda day 7...that's a heck of a long way to go, even for the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: It's definitely an odd setup with 3 pieces of energy needed to pull this off and the placement of the ridge axes. But, the past few runs of the EPS has atleast trended in the right direction, but we have typically lost these "potential" events once we hit approached day 5 and that would be today/tomorrow. This threat is by far the most complicated of the 3 we will end up tracking...but could be the largest threat too. Jan. 2nd is 5 days from now so it is money time for the runs. Do you think they are underperforming with the snowfall amounts on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Still snipe hunting, it looks like. But at least, if the OPs are to be believed (I haven’t checked the ensembles yet), we will get to continue hunting for at least the next 10-15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Jan. 2nd is 5 days from now so it is money time for the runs. Do you think they are underperforming with the snowfall amounts on the EPS? Edit: just noticed, where is the thread for the Monday miss? The control run is 6-8" over your area. Odds are this probably misses wide right as that has been the theme with tomorrows threat and with Mondays threat. But, when you are talking pieces of energy phasing together, that's what you want. I wonder what would happen if the southern piece of energy was a little slower....it would probably take us out of it and jackpots 85 and points west. Maybe 8 of the 20+ members that had snow showed that. Which I guess is good percentage of the ones that hit (8 out of 24) but overall (8 of 51), seems low right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Still snipe hunting, it looks like. But at least, if the OPs are to be believed (I haven’t checked the ensembles yet), we will get to continue hunting for at least the next 10-15 days. Last winter I could find where Dec/Jan was BN and we didn't have snow was 2000/2001. Which was the winter of our big bust and a great analog for this winter. LOL...last few years we had plenty of rainy coastals and no cold and now it's the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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