Hailstorm Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 0z RGEM has trended wetter. It now shows close to 2" for NYC as opposed to <1" it had on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 54 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM has a little virga. Pretty much everyone under 0.1" QPF. SE Suffolk slightly better. Nothing in costal SE mass. That seems odd. I’m not saying this as wishful thinking but I would toss. as depicted the higher amounts offshore are just ocean effect snow as a result of the cold offshore flow. So basically it’s showing no cyclogensis at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 All the new sampling is coming in and all the 0z guidance is backing off, not a surprise, this weekend was an obvious total non event for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: All the new sampling is coming in and all the 0z guidance is backing off, not a surprise, this weekend was an obvious total non event for days That's not true. RGEM was slightly wetter than 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: That's not true. RGEM was slightly wetter than 18Z. Just ignore. Not the rgem. And the ukie by the way. The gofus is a doa granted but that doesn’t mean the event is. This has been 1-2” for the coast for days and it will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I hate to say it but I think the goofus scores the coup on both future events. Progressive flow wins. Still not giving up on the clipper though, I think with ratios it’s got a solid potential to drop 1-3” for the area. The RGEM trend was interesting to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I hate to say it but I think the goofus scores the coup on both future events. Progressive flow wins. Still not giving up on the clipper though, I think with ratios it’s got a solid potential to drop 1-3” for the area. The RGEM trend was interesting to say the least... many people were making fun of the gfs for this saturday storm .. some calling it a garbage model who laughing now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 24 minutes ago, nycwinter said: many people were making fun of the gfs for this saturday storm .. some calling it a garbage model who laughing now... What? Firstly, It is a garbage model. Secondly, the event hasn't taken place. Thirdly, it showed a ton of different solutions since this threat started showing up on the models. Also every single model got it wrong in the long range. Very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 hours ago, Paragon said: wow OES just east of JFK (around here) would be extremely rare- I wonder when's the last time that happened? OES on a south wind. Check it out. The radar loop is a thing of beauty: http://www.northshorewx.com/oes20050119.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 NAM enhanced things back again at 6z, and RGEM should still be good enough for a couple of inches from the city eastward. I guess this will be a nowcast situation to see how the radar enhances once it hits the city. There does seem to be a sneaky ocean enhancement possibility for the south shore if we turn to an east wind. That'll be very interesting-I don't think I've ever been in ocean enhanced snow where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: All the new sampling is coming in and all the 0z guidance is backing off, not a surprise, this weekend was an obvious total non event for days So why have all your posts been in a thread about a non event? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: OES on a south wind. Check it out. The radar loop is a thing of beauty: http://www.northshorewx.com/oes20050119.html Who knows how it'll turn out but the NAM hi-res and RGEM are pretty insistent on forming a band from the SE towards my area/Jones Beach. That would be amazing-any kind of ocean effect where I am happens maybe once every couple decades. Could be more of an inverted trough/Norlun thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The GFS actually came toward the other models in the last few days. GFS didn't even have a clipper a couple of days ago. New GFS Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 SREF has 2 inches for Islip at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Who knows how it'll turn out but the NAM hi-res and RGEM are pretty insistent on forming a band from the SE towards my area/Jones Beach. That would be amazing-any kind of ocean effect where I am happens maybe once every couple decades. Could be more of an inverted trough/Norlun thing. ..it will be interesting to see that develop..maybe the whole south shore can get some enhancement.. this factor could make for some surprises..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Nam has 1-3 inches for the area . 3 is more towards eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam has 1-3 inches for the area . 3 is more towards eastern LI would you care to post a depiction plz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, allgame830 said: would you care to post a depiction plz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Taking into consideration the early 12z guidance (NAM and RGEM), it still looks like a general 0.5" in and around the City, and 1"-3" across Suffolk County and a portion of the south shore in Nassau County (with perhaps a few locally higher amounts) seems to be the way things are headed for tomorrow's clipper system. The 12z NAM seems to be somewhat of an outlier with the earlier guidance, the 12z 3 km version and the 12z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 My final call is less than an inch West of the Queens/Nassau border and 1-3" East of there with the highest totals East of Riverhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The 18z NAM again slightly trimmed snowfall amounts from the upcoming clipper. My final thinking, which is little changed from earlier is: NYC and nearby suburbs: Coating to 0.5" (5% probability of 1"; 25% probability of a trace or less) Suffolk County/southern portion of Nassau County: 1"-3" (generally 0.5" to 1.0" elsewhere in Nassau County) - Ratios could be 15:1 to even 20:1 on parts of Long Island Middlesex and New London Counties: Around 1" in southern portions but coating to 0.5" elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * WHERE...Suffolk County. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Taking into consideration the early 12z guidance (NAM and RGEM), it still looks like a general 0.5" in and around the City, and 1"-3" across Suffolk County and a portion of the south shore in Nassau County (with perhaps a few locally higher amounts) seems to be the way things are headed for tomorrow's clipper system. The 12z NAM seems to be somewhat of an outlier with the earlier guidance, the 12z 3 km version and the 12z RGEM.Don, any indication how CNJ might fare tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, The Plowsman said: 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Taking into consideration the early 12z guidance (NAM and RGEM), it still looks like a general 0.5" in and around the City, and 1"-3" across Suffolk County and a portion of the south shore in Nassau County (with perhaps a few locally higher amounts) seems to be the way things are headed for tomorrow's clipper system. The 12z NAM seems to be somewhat of an outlier with the earlier guidance, the 12z 3 km version and the 12z RGEM. Don, any indication how CNJ might fare tomorrow? Best guess, generally near 0.5" to near 1". As one gets a little further south and east, some 1"-2" amounts are possible. This doesn't look like a big event anywhere, but the kind that can still lead to slippery driving conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 My final guess, a general trace to 1/2 an inch until you get to Queens. A 1-4 inch snowfall for Long Island, closer to 4 inches toward the east end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 NWS has 1-3 for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 the past 2 events have over performed so far this year I'm thinking this one may follow suit. I don't see 3'' in Central Park out of the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 38 minutes ago, ny10019 said: the past 2 events have over performed so far this year I'm thinking this one may follow suit. I don't see 3'' in Central Park out of the picture. I don’t think the initial disturbance will be able to produce enough and the coastal moisture gets going too late. The surprise may come somewhere in the northern MA or south of us. They may get more out of the system before it undergoes the semi transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Best guess, generally near 0.5" to near 1". As one gets a little further south and east, some 1"-2" amounts are possible. This doesn't look like a big event anywhere, but the kind that can still lead to slippery driving conditions.Great Don, thanx n Happy New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I don’t think the initial disturbance will be able to produce enough and the coastal moisture gets going too late. The surprise may come somewhere in the northern MA or south of us. They may get more out of the system before it undergoes the semi transfer That coastal transfer may actually “rob” moisture in the area (west of Long Island) and cause dry slotting/subsidence in between as the initial disturbance comes across from the west and weakens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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