SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 4:50 PM, SnoSki14 said: I don't see how the ratios would be greater than 15:1 as anything above that is extremely rare around here. As someone stated, lower temps don't equal higher ratios. This may end up being an inch at best but with how dry the air is and the amount of virga likely, it may only be a dusting (>0.5"). Expand 700mb temps are -20c. So I would not think ratios will be 20 to 1. 15 to 1 is possible though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Euro is a bit better. It develops a weak low offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Coating to 2 inches sound about right for the forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 18Z NAM much improved from 12Z. About .2 of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This isn’t something I’d write off for maybe a few inches on the coast. It’s a vigorous wave aloft and wouldn’t take much moisture from the Atlantic for a decent period of snow. The best shot is on Long Island for enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Whatz NAM snowfall map looking like, if its 0.2" QPF, could be printing out some 3" or so amounts around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 8:45 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Whatz NAM snowfall map looking like, if its 0.2" QPF, could be printing out some 3" or so amounts around? Expand with rations around 2.5-3 inches west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Some hints of an ocean-effect band *just* east of the city (very close to JFK) on Saturday morning (see 3KM NAM, RPM, HRGEM). The low level convergence would need to align just right, but the temp profiles in low levels are killer for some high-ratio fluff, especially on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 6:55 PM, weatherfreeeeak said: Coating to 2 inches sound about right for the forecast? Expand 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Last minute wetter trend again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Besides Long Island and eastern New England, this is a dusting/snow showers. There may be spots north and west of the city that don’t even see a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 9:17 PM, Snow88 said: Last minute wetter trend again Expand I’m not that surprised given how strong the shortwave is. If it could’ve buckled and slowed just a little more, this could’ve been a SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 9:17 PM, Snow88 said: Last minute wetter trend again Expand Which model(s)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 9:28 PM, snowman19 said: I’ve already gone into my reasons, extensively over the last 2 days and a couple of pro mets agreed with me, look back at my posts for the reasons Expand It’s a potent shortwave, any enhanced lift from the Atlantic could drop 1-2 inches across the area. The NAM has trended wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 8:55 PM, purduewx80 said: Some hints of an ocean-effect band *just* east of the city (very close to JFK) on Saturday morning (see 3KM NAM, RPM, HRGEM). The low level convergence would need to align just right, but the temp profiles in low levels are killer for some high-ratio fluff, especially on Long Island. Expand There is light southerly flow which will help L.I. .2 sneaks in just east of the city with .4 now into Suffolk county. Could see as much as 3 just east of JFK with as much as 5 out on to the East end if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The bickering is getting ridiculous. Keep it constructive or keep it to yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 9:52 PM, jm1220 said: The bickering is getting ridiculous. Keep it constructive or keep it to yourself. Expand Things haven't really changed, it's still mainly a dusting to an inch for most of the area. The east end of LI might get a bit more, I'm not sure what ratios people think we're going to get but anything above 15:1 is a big stretch. The previous clipper systems were a lot more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 10:15 PM, SnoSki14 said: Things haven't really changed, it's still mainly a dusting to an inch for most of the area. The east end of LI might get a bit more, I'm not sure what ratios people think we're going to get but anything above 15:1 is a big stretch. The previous clipper systems were a lot more potent. Expand In this air mass 20:1 is really not a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 10:15 PM, SnoSki14 said: Things haven't really changed, it's still mainly a dusting to an inch for most of the area. The east end of LI might get a bit more, I'm not sure what ratios people think we're going to get but anything above 15:1 is a big stretch. The previous clipper systems were a lot more potent. Expand I think 1-2 is entirely possible based on a good portion of guidance from EWR to WRN Long Island. Far eastern Long Island has room to see over 3-4 but it’s too early given it’s going come down to how quick the surface low forms and other factors the NAM/RGEM should see better tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 10:21 PM, Stormlover74 said: In this air mass 20:1 is really not a stretch. Expand We've probably seen less than a handful of events with ratios that high within the tristate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 10:53 PM, SnoSki14 said: We've probably seen less than a handful of events with ratios that high within the tristate. Expand 850s are going to be very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 8:55 PM, purduewx80 said: Some hints of an ocean-effect band *just* east of the city (very close to JFK) on Saturday morning (see 3KM NAM, RPM, HRGEM). The low level convergence would need to align just right, but the temp profiles in low levels are killer for some high-ratio fluff, especially on Long Island. Expand wow OES just east of JFK (around here) would be extremely rare- I wonder when's the last time that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 10:53 PM, SnoSki14 said: We've probably seen less than a handful of events with ratios that high within the tristate. Expand 03-04 winter (Jan 2004 I think) we had a storm with widespread 40:1 ratios and LGA even had 80:1 ratio snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 On 12/29/2017 at 1:37 AM, Paragon said: 03-04 winter (Jan 2004 I think) we had a storm with widespread 40:1 ratios and LGA even had 80:1 ratio snow. Expand That was likely a bad ASOS liquid equivalent. I remember that event and it was about 20-25 to 1 on average I think. I think this one may be up to 20 to 1 in some areas. There didn’t see to be a huge change on the 21Z SREFs except ERN LI where they looked wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 On 12/29/2017 at 1:45 AM, SnowGoose69 said: That was likely a bad ASOS liquid equivalent. I remember that event and it was about 20-25 to 1 on average I think. I think this one may be up to 20 to 1 in some areas. There didn’t see to be a huge change on the 21Z SREFs except ERN LI where they looked wetter Expand I remember the clipper in Jan 2004 where we had 7” of absolute fluff with 10F temps. I think that was on 0.30-0.35” liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 On 12/29/2017 at 1:48 AM, jm1220 said: I remember the clipper in Jan 2004 where we had 7” of absolute fluff with 10F temps. I think that was on 0.30-0.35” liquid. Expand Yeah I had 7 in Merrick I think. That event also had no virga which surprised people. I do recall though that it was slow to get going and that panic mode was setting in around 8-10pm because of a dry slot that formed. Oddly enough the miller B a week later had almost the same thing happen. . Once again forecast soundings suggest this event will reach the ground quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 On 12/29/2017 at 1:35 AM, Paragon said: wow OES just east of JFK (around here) would be extremely rare- I wonder when's the last time that happened? Expand Pretty much never on this flow. We see sound enhanacemt on a ENE flow. Any ocean effect if it were to occur could up the ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 On 12/29/2017 at 1:51 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah I had 7 in Merrick I think. That event also had no virga which surprised people. I do recall though that it was slow to get going and that panic mode was setting in around 8-10pm because of a dry slot that formed. Oddly enough the miller B a week later had almost the same thing happen. . Once again forecast soundings suggest this event will reach the ground quickly Expand I thought that was the one where they had 10-11 inches in Far Rockaway? I think it was the one where it snowed most of the night and it was still snowing hard early in the morning as the sun was trying to come out- sunrise snow- it looked pink as it was coming down with the rising sun in the background. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 NAM has a little virga. Pretty much everyone under 0.1" QPF. SE Suffolk slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Hi res even more anemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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