WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Second to last day of 2017 looks to be a white one. Light snow may hit our area during the day this Saturday. Enjoy it my fellow weenies...Post your discussions here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Second to last day of 2017 looks to be a white one. Light snow may hit our area during the day this Saturday. Enjoy it my fellow weenies...Post your discussions here You do realize that this is a dusting event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 33 minutes ago, Enigma said: You do realize that this is a dusting event? You sure about that? Latest runs looks better... let’s see what the euro has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 UKIE anyone??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: UKIE anyone??? pics ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Desperation must be setting in. There won't even be enough snow to coat the grass, mostly mood flakes at best. Not if the GGEM is right. Tonight's run gives most of the area about 3 inches of snow. GFS improved as well, giving the area a coating to 1 inch. It's certainly possible that it will be only a dusting event, but a decent 1 to 3 inch event is possible as well. We should get a better idea by thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Second to last day of 2017 looks to be a white one. Light snow may hit our area during the day this Saturday. Enjoy it my fellow weenies...Post your discussions here Looks like a nice light snow event Gfs and gefs are shifting the low closer to the coast. Lets see if it gets stronger. We are still 2 days away so we can still see some changes 1-3 inches is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6z gefs closer to the coast with more precip than the 0z run with this weekends clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 if you like snow i think we want models to have this more south today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Where are all the guys with the hot hand? Mood flakes??? No precip for the next week? What a difference sampling makes. GFS is light years different from 24 hours ago. This 100% proves that some are either straight up trolling or wishcasting for NO snow. Meteorology not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Those 09Z SREFs became awfully wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Those 09Z SREFs became awfully wet pictures please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Those 09Z SREFs became awfully wet .10 - .25 liquid at 20:1 ratio - you do the math............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 You never, ever forecast 20:1 ratios in a synoptic snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: .10 - .25 liquid at 20:1 ratio - you do the math............ Ratios aren’t about surface temps. We want the lift to be in the DGZ, which is where temps are -12 to -18C. If it’s colder than that where the snowflakes are made, you’ll see needles and tiny flakes that aren’t much better than 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: You never, ever forecast 20:1 ratios in a synoptic snowfall. so you are saying 20:1 ratio's are not possible ? And who said I was forecasting that ???- I was just stating a possibility !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: You never, ever forecast 20:1 ratios in a synoptic snowfall. categorically false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Gfs/Nam still suggest less than an inch of snow fall, we'll see if they perk up later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Hopefully the clipper can salvage a couple of inches as it reaches the ocean and picks up some moisture, but obviously this won’t be anything like what it could’ve been if the energy slowed down some. The flow will just be way too fast with the PV so close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 NAM at about 0.5" to 1" across the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: NAM at about 0.5" to 1" across the region... The RGEM looks better at 48 than the NAM did. Probably have to wait another model cycle or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM looks better at 48 than the NAM did. Probably have to wait another model cycle or two Agreed since the main vort is still offshore. 12Z RGEM and RPM both have ~0.2" liquid equivalent at JFK, with more to the E. Probably good for 2-3", maybe 4 if there's some meso banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 .10 - .25 liquid at 20:1 ratio - you do the math............I was told there would be no math.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This still looks like a 1-3 inch snowfall for the area given the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This still looks like a 1-3 inch snowfall for the area given the ratios. I think amounts are still to be determined this is a very tricky setup - expect alot of virga when precip echoes start appearing on radar because the columm has to get saturated and that might take a while - not going to get much help from the Atlantic or any other moisture source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think amounts are still to be determined this is a very tricky setup - expect alot of virga when precip echoes start appearing on radar because the columm has to get saturated and that might take a while - not going to get much help from the Atlantic or any other moisture source. Forecast model soundings actually show we would not have much virga at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 UKIE looks better than it did at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This still looks like a 1-3 inch snowfall for the area given the ratios. I don't see how the ratios would be greater than 15:1 as anything above that is extremely rare around here. As someone stated, lower temps don't equal higher ratios. This may end up being an inch at best but with how dry the air is and the amount of virga likely, it may only be a dusting (>0.5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 we've already had one event with 20-25:1 ratios in NYC this winter. might be rare but with a clipper and these temp profiles, 15-20:1 is likely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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