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December 28-31 Snow Systems


Hoosier

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Models this morning are trending south with the main banding and also predicting wider area of snow from SW to NE, a good thing for everyone. The RAP and HRRR were scaring me last night. We got 2.5" on the ground right now on lawns and such, so have been hoping for another top up with this. Models still do not EXACTLY agree on the southern edge of snow though and we are half in and half out, some models have us at 1 inch, the RDPS Canadian and Trusty GFS has us at 4 inches. . so there are no guarantees but I am still excited for folks just to my east and north. I will be satisfied if we can pick up 1.5 out of this deal here.

Good folk in Australia shall enjoy swimming at the lake and Volleyball today. But folks in Illinois Shan't

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I wouldn't doubt if Wyandotte starts finding a way to snow in summer. 

lol. I doubt that haha. We got 1.7" of snow. Had super fluff to start, then ratios calmed down. On my drive to work just past the airport and into Farmington Hills there is clearly less, about an inch Id say, maybe a tad less in spots. Im guessing it must have been good dendrites on the east side that helped. Season totals in SE MI right now range from 22 to 24" at the official 3 climate sites (DTW, FNT, DTX) and up to 25-30" in some of the elevated northern suburbs (per spotters). November only had trace amounts of snow, so its basically all December. Toledo is "only" at 11.8" (still better than the rest of the non snowbelt midwest) so its as if the joke about a southern MI snow magnet is really ringing true this season. IA, IL, IN, & OH will almost certainly see more snow than us tonight but we should still add some more. Then another arctic hammer drops.

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22 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Beautiful, large dendrites pouring down here.  DVN upped us to a warning, but it's pretty marginal...  4-6" with no wind.

Update: Near an inch already within the first hour thanks to those large flakes.  The flakes are small now.

Jebus..try not to piss on our parade before it gets here....."pretty marginal" ..."the flakes are small now"....:(

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Just now, snowlover2 said:

Getting some flurries here now which is good because it means no virga with the main show. Things looking better here. Got WWA for 2-3" but latest models show it could be more than that.

Same here and was just thinking the same thing. I think this will do better than the xmas eve one for sure! No warn temps the past few days helps too. 

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9 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Getting some flurries here now which is good because it means no virga with the main show. Things looking better here. Got WWA for 2-3" but latest models show it could be more than that.

NWS Wilmington hasn't updated. Morning outlook was using a blended 18:1 ratio on the 2-3.

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39 minutes ago, Baum said:

Jebus..try not to piss on our parade before it gets here....."pretty marginal" ..."the flakes are small now"....:(

"Pretty marginal" is my feeling about the upgrade to warning, not the system/snow itself.  I'm thrilled with 4-6" and no wind.

Regarding the flakes, they have remained small.  It's still coming down at a good rate, though.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Beautiful, large dendrites pouring down here.  DVN upped us to a warning, but it's pretty marginal...  4-6" with no wind.

Update: Near an inch already within the first hour thanks to those large flakes.  The flakes are small now.

I was surprised they updated you guys to a warning, but I suppose it's the right move from a public safety standpoint. Marginal is a perfect way to describe it.

 

Light snow here, have a dusting already and figure we are good for up to a half inch. Tiny flakes like yesterday but I thought we would be in virga on the far northern edge so this is all bonus in my mind. 

 

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

"Pretty marginal" is my feeling about the upgrade to warning, not the system/snow itself.  I'm thrilled with 4-6" and no wind.

Regarding the flakes, they have remained small.  It's still coming down at a good rate, though.

This would explain the small flake size. Would note that the NAM/GFS had a much more favorable overlay of omega in the DGZ.  Not that good dendrites won't occur but it may be tough to sustain that type of flake production in many areas.

hrrr_2017122917_001_KCID.thumb.png.d61d99e154270fa7f51e726c57ca685a.png

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Thanks for the sounding graphic, Hoosier.  That does make sense.  It's currently pouring pixie dust here.  The lift is there, just not at the best level.

At 12pm I was up to 2.2".  There are brighter radar returns in central Iowa, so I'm hoping to get back into the better snow rates.  In central Iowa, Marshalltown was under a brighter band for a couple hours and they are reporting nearly 4 inches.

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5 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Wouldn’t be surprised for this one to be a nice overachiever for many north of the main axis. Nice DGZ should support good SLR, so it would not surprise me to see most of LOT’s WWA on the high end of the range. Roads will be an absolute nightmare by evening rush. 

Looks like my optimism may be misplaced. Straight pixie dust falling, very similar to xmas eve. 

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