Hoosier Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Well I guess it falls on me to start the thread. Could have a few systems in this period, which cumulatively may add up to several inches in a NW-SE oriented band from Iowa eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Was about to start this myself specifically for the Friday/Saturday system which seems the strongest. Looks like 2-5" from Iowa to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I feel like this cold air is really killing these systems. Sure ratios are 20:1, but the cold air just doesn't offer good moisture to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: I feel like this cold air is really killing these systems. Sure ratios are 20:1, but the cold air just doesn't offer good moisture to begin with. That and further east there is too much confluence, so most of the systems get shred apart as they come east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 12z Euro 10:1 snow map through the weekend. I'm hoping these waves can produce some better flakes and a 20:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I am excited about the prospect of these systems here. Some of the models have become more aggressive about the Friday system today between the 00z and 12z model runs, but forecasters are being understandably cautious about that one probably for model inconsistency and reasons mentioned above on this thread. If we are super lucky we could end up with a cool 6 inches but my hopes are on 2-3 by Sat. What we do get is being added to the 1.5" we got on Saturday night, most of which is still on the ground just fine. What little has disappeared was probably from evaporation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 ILN this morning had us in the 1"-3" range. Now they are saying "little to no snow accumulation expected". Cautious indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Rooting for those allusive 40:1 Bastardi ratios to get this puppy to advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Most interesting threat here is the lake effect set up over the weekend for the southwestern shore of Lake Michigan. GFS has since backed off a bit on the intensity of its signal, but the Euro is now on board with a period of lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Tomorrow looks like 1-2" is possible over northern IL, highest probably near WI border if it's not straight pixie dust like Christmas Eve. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, mimillman said: Most interesting threat here is the lake effect set up over the weekend for the southwestern shore of Lake Michigan. GFS has since backed off a bit on the intensity of its signal, but the Euro is now on board with a period of lake effect. Yeah, been posting about it in the LES thread. It's early but thermodynamics look favorable for a band of heavy snow somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, vespasian70 said: ILN this morning had us in the 1"-3" range. Now they are saying "little to no snow accumulation expected". Cautious indeed. Spoke too soon. Throwing caution to the wind, ILN puts 1"-3" back in the afternoon forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Yeah, been posting about it in the LES thread. It's early but thermodynamics look favorable for a band of heavy snow somewhere. Would love to have a good IL and far NW IN event like March last year and the January 2014 events. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Would love to have a good IL and far NW IN event like March last year and the January 2014 events. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk What are your thoughts on the chances of this actually verifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 hours ago, vespasian70 said: Spoke too soon. Throwing caution to the wind, ILN puts 1"-3" back in the afternoon forecast. LOL It was the right thing to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 NAM came north with the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: NAM came north with the weekend system. So did the GFS and Canadian. Tonight's system is pretty meager, but the second wave is suddenly looking better for my area... perhaps a few inches of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 What are your thoughts on the chances of this actually verifying?Hoosier has some great posts over on LES thread which I concur with.Thermodynamic parameters will be very good, so it makes sense that there will be heavy rates wherever the band or bands focus. I just think there's a lot of uncertainty with the wind field - it looks a bit messy owing to the likelihood of mesolow formation. So until we get a bit closer, confidence is lower on things like areas most impacted and how large of an area affected, duration etc. But overall, the setup appears to be a favorable one for producing significant amounts somewhere. For good reference, see the 00z GEM Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 We got moderate snow coming down with a fresh inch on top of what was already there. Started about 2 hours and 15 minutes ago and will probably keep coming down until midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 41 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: We got moderate snow coming down with a fresh inch on top of what was already there. Started about 2 hours and 15 minutes ago and will probably keep coming down until midnight. Nice, my brother lives in Des Moines too and said it was snowing a bit heavier then he expected about 30min ago. Flakes should be flying up here for the commute tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The way the models have been performing lately I really don't like being in the bullseye two days out. Congrats Detroit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Models tonight are looking good for a part of Iowa that has seen little snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, vespasian70 said: The way the models have been performing lately I really don't like being in the bullseye two days out. Congrats Detroit! Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Detroit is the hot spot for snow as of late, no complaints here. Clipper train will continue this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 06z nam took a big shift north. Basically I80 north for accumulation. South of there not much at all. At the moment it seems to be an outlier but will have to see if other models budge more north. I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 9 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: So did the GFS and Canadian. Tonight's system is pretty meager, but the second wave is suddenly looking better for my area... perhaps a few inches of fluff. GFS has trended towards the Euro (imagine that) with Friday's clipper. Looking pretty good for us. Soundings look really nice as well, with a deep zone of dendrite growth, and what looks like pretty good saturation throughout. Omega is spread out pretty nicely through the zone as well. I'm thinking ratios will be much better than xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: GFS has trended towards the Euro (imagine that) with Friday's clipper. Looking pretty good for us. Soundings look really nice as well, with a deep zone of dendrite growth, and what looks like pretty good saturation throughout. Omega is spread out pretty nicely through the zone as well. I'm thinking ratios will be much better than xmas eve. Do you think nam is a northern outlier? Gfs, euro, and gem all seem to be in rather good agreement and our south of where nam is on max amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Hard to imagine a north trend in this pattern,.. But then again if it means a miss for CMH and a hit for Detroit I"d never bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: Hard to imagine a north trend in this pattern,.. But then again if it means a miss for CMH and a hit for Detroit I"d never bet against it. I was imagining this scenario even before the NAM ticked north. The Detroit snow magnet is working just fine apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Today looks good for 0.5-2" across the area.I'll go 1.1" at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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