Scraff Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: GFS just doesn't like this event. It likes 1-3 flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The vort is weak and no moisture to tap...it's snowed out once it crosses the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GFS just doesn't like this event. It just doesn't like giving us snow, except when it shows a 60 hour snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: It's amazing how that somewhat impressive storm in the PAC NW just evaporates over time to nothing. That's not what's happening. It's just a disturbance that breaks off from the storm in the pac nw and zips along with the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Put away the shovel Like I said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Welp, I didn't think it could be done, but we somehow lost the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Welp, I didn't think it could be done, but we somehow lost the Canadian I think 9z is the time we are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's not what's happening. It's just a disturbance that breaks off from the storm in the pac nw and zips along with the jet. Did it end up in the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: I think 9z is the time we are looking at. It has the snow happening through 12z and 18z, and it still does accumulate, just sometime in that window, and very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Exhausting winter habit—waiting for model runs and being let down. I wonder what this habit is like in NE/BOS. Is it all relative? Do they consider a “snow hole strikes again” after receiving 3-4 inches of snow? Use the term “Bust” to describe that pitiful 3-5 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Did it end up in the GOM? No, the upper level energy and big low doesn't even come on shore until 48 hours. The precip that runs across the country is just a disturbance that breaks off of the actual storm. Always look at upper levels (500mb) panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I had a hunch things wouldn't be good after the 0z Nam. It wasnt just our area with less precip. It was the entire stripe. It's 24 hour leads for the plains/mw. When that area came in with trimmed qpf it was a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Never know. In a light precip situation it’s easy to get a surprise. BTW, what’s with the radar bloom west of winchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Cloud movement like 100-ese and in this set up that usually continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 52 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Exhausting winter habit—waiting for model runs and being let down. I wonder what this habit is like in NE/BOS. Is it all relative? Do they consider a “snow hole strikes again” after receiving 3-4 inches of snow? Use the term “Bust” to describe that pitiful 3-5 inches of snow? Three to five inches of snow, to Bostonians, is a cartopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Euro isn't awful. 0.02"-0.05" contour is pretty broad, so hopefully we can get some slightly heavier precip in. Best case scenario still 1-3". Probably 5% of happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6z NAM comes in slightly wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 GFS has more solid coverage at 6z. Slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 GFS has more solid coverage at 6z. Slightly6z model suite better so far for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Temps warm up enough I think that all should melt before getting cold again. At least we won't have to worry about looking at any snow covered mulch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Let me clarify...temps appear to spike above freezing during or just post snow. I know flake growth and ratios start from way above but I think you get the picture. That said NAM is close to an inch here which I will take in a heartbeat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 50 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 6z model suite better so far for sure . Well it's not a 60 hour storm it's a 60 minute storm. I will enjoy it like it's the last time I will ever see snow. Nothing of note in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The positives about tonight's potential event: - Cold ground and air temps snow will stick - it will be that cold powder we all enjoy - good ratios I think so if we can squeeze an extra .0001 of precip it will make a difference - it should set us up for extra cold night or two if it doesn't evaporate because of the low moisture content - its all we have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Find the snowiest model run you can and run with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Find the snowiest model run you can and run with it... Especially when the bulls eye is close to your back yard. I never look at that model but now I am a big fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Today is National WRF hugging day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 22 minutes ago, Scraff said: Today is National WRF hugging day... How does it rank with the HRRR NAM 3k etc...if it shows snow I will assume it’s one step above the Farmers Almanac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I'm watching Albert Lea Minnesota they are slated to get 2-4" if they get that or more then I think we can get an inch at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Dusting to an inch seems to be the model consensus for DC as the 12z NAM has cut back again. 0.01-0.05 QPF now. Good run for Baltimore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 12z NAM drier once again. 6z was best case I assume. just have to be happy with less than .5 inch possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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