Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Eyeballing 3k NAM, and it looks better. Precip panels not out yet Nah, 3k is drier this run across the Midwest. Not something you want to see at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, 3k is drier this run across the Midwest. Not something you want to see at this point. everytime we need a good trend....we hit a brick wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, 3k is drier this run across the Midwest. Not something you want to see at this point. What are trying to say Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 we have been tracking our next snow event know since about Dec 20th....the event will last 3 hours. This hobby sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, 3k is drier this run across the Midwest. Not something you want to see at this point. Oh yeah, I see it now. Cut precip totals across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 It flurried yesterday for longer then the 2 hours the NAM twins show snow. Color me skeptical about this one. Not to keep being too negative, but people keep mentioning how we’ve had a lot of reverse busts this year. Definitely not true on the VA side of things, and I don’t really think it’s true overall. We’ve had events trend better but they’ve generally not lived up to expectations, again with the caveat of in VA at least. Hope Saturday is different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What are trying to say Bob Put away the shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we have been tracking our next snow event know since about Dec 20th....the event will last 3 hours. This obsessive-compulsive disorder sucks Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It flurried yesterday for longer then the 2 hours the NAM twins show snow. Color me skeptical about this one. Not to keep being too negative, but people keep mentioning how we’ve had a lot of reverse busts this year. Definitely not true on the VA side of things, and I don’t really think it’s true overall. We’ve had events trend better but they’ve generally not lived up to expectations, again with the caveat of in VA at least. Hope Saturday is different! even Dec 8 was a bust after it trended in a good way for us to get us into the game....the late model runs had us getting about 6 inches...until the 00z GFS cut has back to 3 and all the models followed suite.. Absolutely horrible winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ji said: everytime we need a good trend....we hit a brick wall We still have 5 nam runs to get to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I don't know how we can change into a wetter pattern. The southern stream should be more active after around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 NAM bros are still wetter than the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We still have 5 nam runs to get to zero. Looks good to me. Snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Looks good to me. Snow is snow. Very true. I'll put my baseline for a good event as measurable snow, and 1"+ is a great event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I don't know how we can change into a wetter pattern. The southern stream should be more active after around New Years. I feel like it's super dry for this time of year. I can't even remember the last time we had a decent rain event. The little pond near my house is almost dry. I've only seen that during really dry summers. You know the ole saying about drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I was on the west coast 2013-2015. Same feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I was on the west coast 2013-2015. Same feeling. soi has been negative...we should of had a better southern branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 At least this time I won't be sitting in my truck for 10 hours on standby staring at wet asphalt waiting for it to stick lol. Do you think the mountains will break it up like usual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ji said: soi has been negative...we should of had a better southern branch Yup, models are wrong, the govt climate prediction has been off... billions of dollars and they can't predict the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Very true. I'll put my baseline for a good event as measurable snow, and 1"+ is a great event. 0.5" is what I am shooting for. I get greedy and I lose. It's way more than I have now and way more than I'm likely to see. Waiting for a west trend next week? Fools gold. West and south trends we don't do well with. Also wrap around, Miller B's and cold chasing moisture. Been here a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 0.5" is what I am shooting for. I get greedy and I lose. It's way more than I have now and way more than I'm likely to see. Waiting for a west trend next week? Fools gold. West and south trends we don't do well with. Also wrap around, Miller B's and cold chasing moisture. Been here a long time. But sometimes...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I like these posts mainly bc they give hope. They discuss possibilities. At times, after scrolling through the analysis, I will jump off and look at let’s say the 7 Day Weather app on my phone. I don’t recommend. It’s like cold water thrown onto the fire you just spent hours building. Why? Because it serves this ugly visual of a 7-9 day stretch of perfect cold air, injection after injection, and no precip. This kind of solid cold for weeks is rare here. We always fight the 32 mark. Ugh. I’ll keep hoping though. Back to GFS and UKIE in a few. Hoping for an inch— Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: But sometimes...... Ah yes..sometimes....deuces are wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Ah yes..sometimes....deuces are wild. And so are golden pups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: And so are golden pups. Yes,,and all of us including the pups will be awake for obs early Saturday...for that magic hour when snow will fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 We should know for sure in a couple of minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: I like these posts mainly bc they give hope. They discuss possibilities. At times, after scrolling through the analysis, I will jump off and look at let’s say the 7 Day Weather app on my phone. I don’t recommend. It’s like cold water thrown onto the fire you just spent hours building. Why? Because it serves this ugly visual of a 7-9 day stretch of perfect cold air, injection after injection, and no precip. This kind of solid cold for weeks is rare here. We always fight the 32 mark. Ugh. I’ll keep hoping though. Back to GFS and UKIE in a few. Hoping for an inch— yeah well sometimes on mushrooms I realize how ****ed up things really are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 About five miles south of 18z run at hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 It's amazing how that somewhat impressive storm in the PAC NW just evaporates over time to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 GFS just doesn't like this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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