Saturday December 30 Snow Obs and Disco

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Now, what? Can this possibly be a dry snow event? Maybe it fizzles. Sun is warm today. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Still time to NAM juice this up a touch?

Maybe I’m just being overly optimistic, but I think there’s room to juice it up a bit given the decent looking upper level energy pass shown on all the guidance today. Not crazy, but we should have some big fluff factor so if we can squeeze out even 0.1” if liquid, we could do well.

[aldie 22]

Surprise clippers are almost as fun as surprise morning sex unless you're in prison then surprise morning sex isnt that fun but surprise juicy clippers still are

[WinterWxLuvr]

NAM looks good

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Surprise clippers are almost as fun as surprise morning sex unless you're in prison then surprise morning sex isnt that fun but surprise juicy clippers still are

Sorry to hear about your episode in prison. But when you don't lock the back door anything can happen. 

[T. August]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM looks good

Where are you getting 18z. My TT still has 00z

[Cobalt]

Where are you getting 18z. My TT still has 00z

Pivotal weather has it. Don't know why NAM is frozen on TT


.

[SnowGolfBro]

Can't have a decent snow without a good NAM'ing.  Hoping we can get an over performer with a solid vort pass and high ratios. .25 qpf would be close to WSW criteria.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Instant Weather is usually fast

[showmethesnow]

12K is now getting .1-.15 " precip from DC and north. Probably good for 1-2" through the corridor with some lolly's of 3 possibly. 

[Bob Chill]

3k top and 12k bottom. I'm huggin the 12k for now

 

[Bob Chill]

For reference, both NAMs improved from 12z so that's a net + no matter how you look at it. 

[PDIII]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

12K is now getting .1-.15 " precip from DC and north. Probably good for 1-2" through the corridor with some lolly's of 3 possibly. 

Sledable (yes.. that's a new word) is my bench mark for success for this one.. I guess 2-3 will do it.

[Stormpc]

Those south of 66 in Va are still out of it. Who knows. 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

3k Kuchera

 

Looks good to me. And if we keep getting nudges every run until onset then maybe....just maybe...someone can use a shovel instead of a broom or leaf blower to clear their driveway. I used a leaf blower in 13-14/14-15 multiple times. First few times my neighbors laughed....then a few started using theirs too. 

[clskinsfan]

54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM looks good

So does the Euro. I think we will finally break one inch with a storm this year. 

[Interstate]

Who broke the RGEM on TT?

[EastCoast NPZ]

13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

So does the Euro. I think we will finally break one inch with a storm this year. 

1" out here has become the 4-minute mile.  Took a long time to break that barrier.

[clskinsfan]

The RGEM is pretty light with precip. But we already knew that. Maybe an inch throughout the area.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The RGEM is pretty light with precip. But we already knew that. Maybe an inch throughout the area.

18z RGEM and GFS nearly identical. We can take some comfort in guidance all showing the southern edge of precip south of the area today. Ukie was the worst of the bunch. At least we have a track that works seemingly locked in. Now we just need to will the disturbance to come in with a little more juice. GFS/RGEM is .5 - 2" through the whole region. Most areas probably at least top 1". Wouldn't take much to get 1-3" everywhere....wouldn't take much for 1" or less either. lol

[Ji]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

18z RGEM and GFS nearly identical. We can take some comfort in guidance all showing the southern edge of precip south of the area today. Ukie was the worst of the bunch. At least we have a track that works seemingly locked in. Now we just need to will the disturbance to come in with a little more juice. GFS/RGEM is .5 - 2" through the whole region. Most areas probably at least top 1". Wouldn't take much to get 1-3" everywhere....wouldn't take much for 1" or less either. lol

do you remember how much qpf was modeled a few years ago in early January when a clipper dropped 3-4 inches right after rush hour. I believe the forecast was for a T

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

do you remember how much qpf was modeled a few years ago in early January when a clipper dropped 3-4 inches right after rush hour. I believe the forecast was for a T

Yea, but this one is different. No circulation really. Just a disturbance zipping along in relatively flat flow. Don't get me wrong....I hope we get a surprise but these aren't the kinds that do it. No surface low in VA and no spin in the upper levels. Just a blob moving west to east. 

50:1 ratios could work though

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, but this one is different. No circulation really. Just a disturbance zipping along in relatively flat flow. Don't get me wrong....I hope we get a surprise but these aren't the kinds that do it. No surface low in VA and no spin in the upper levels. Just a blob moving west to east. 

50:1 ratios could work though

I mean, someone said ratios during the Jan 21st 2014 storm were 46:1, so 30:1+ ratios could happen even in NW DC. Temps would be in mid teens to lower 20s

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Those south of 66 in Va are still out of it. Who knows. 

This clipper sucks.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

This clipper sucks.

Nah, this one will be kinda fun. It's not really a clipper. Just an upper level disturbance breaking off the storm in the pac NW and zipping along with the jet. You can see it over oh/in on the jet panel

 

The fun part is we can literally extrapolate radar well in advance. No complicated dynamics or blossoming overhead stuff. Just a blob of precip aimed right at us. 

Hopefully it overperforms in the Midwest/OH Valley. That would be the first tipoff that we might do better than expected. Of course it might suck to the west and we'll be bummed before it even gets started. Lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

Nah, this one will be kinda fun. It's not really a clipper. Just an upper level disturbance breaking off the storm in the pac NW and zipping along with the jet. You can see it over oh/in on the jet panel

 
The fun part is we can literally extrapolate radar well in advance. No complicated dynamics or blossoming overhead stuff. Just a blob of precip aimed right at us. 
Hopefully it overperforms in the Midwest/OH Valley. That would be the first tipoff that we might do better than expected. Of course it might suck to the west and we'll be bummed before it even gets started. Lol

Why are some of the hi res models enhancing precip once hitting the coast? Is this a function of the warm Atlantic ssts?

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Why are some of the hi res models enhancing precip once hitting the coast? Is this a function of the warm Atlantic ssts?

Yea, I would assume the baroclinic zone and better upper level dynamics help get a weak low going once off the coast. It's not much of a shortwave. Pretty flat honeslty. If there wasn't pac moisture embedded and it was dropping out of canada it would probably just be clouds with no precip at all. 

[Bob Chill]

Not getting nam'd at 0z. 12k trimmed qpf. Can even get nam'd right this winter. 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Not getting nam'd at 0z. 12k trimmed qpf. Can even get nam'd right this winter. 

Eyeballing 3k NAM, and it looks better. Precip panels not out yet

[gymengineer]

Path should be more or less figured out by now. Then the last 24-hrs before “systems” in the .01-.2” liquid range is fine-tuning the bands of max QPF. Then, if every model agrees with measurable still, I’m usually expecting at least some accumulations, with a bit of optimism for an upside somewhere nearby.