WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs has the .10 " line just north of DC. South of 0z ..fwiw. Surprisingly dead in here actually Hey I’m all in. Euro had some good trends in the vort pass and the surface reflection. Precip responsed sorta strangely. I think this is a dusting-2” sort of event, but wouldn’t be surprised if someone (*cough*mappy*cough*) gets 3”. Gonna be fluffy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 8 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I kinda like your area and the Delmarva. If the small slp off the coast decides to do anything quickly then some enhancement is on the table. It's a bit of a stretch but we've seen stuff like this more than once in the past. Another Dewey Beach special - eh , maybe I do better here in Middletown versus your way Bob, we will see. On a seperate note - warmed up my daughter's car here this AM at 6 and it was labored to start, it is a late model car. 11 degrees here at that time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 8 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, sparky will be reporting mod snow before I see my first flake and the some sort of weird w-e band over the northern tier will set up at the end to finish the job. If it makes you feel better, I have to travel to Derwood on Saturday, so I may not even be home to enjoy whatever falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 "Have to travel to Derwood" No one has to travel to Derwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jandurin said: "Have to travel to Derwood" No one has to travel to Derwood. You do when you have family who live there. Thanks tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Jma 6z is a tad wetter Not hating the dark blue through my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Hmm. The 12z 3k NAM has started on TT but the 12k NAM 6z is missing and 12z too. Wonder what that's about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The NAM looks good. Precip centered right through our area. Manages to give most of us an inch or more. And even gets my area over .1 for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM looks good. Precip centered right through our area. Manages to give most of us an inch or more. And even gets my area over .1 for the event. Can't even get the nam to go overdone. I hope this one sneaks up on us . But right now it looks lame. Usually with these things I look for a vort passage just to our south. Right now I don't even see a vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM looks good. Precip centered right through our area. Manages to give most of us an inch or more. And even gets my area over .1 for the event. 12km looks ok, but 3k naso much. Ick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 47 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM looks good. Precip centered right through our area. Manages to give most of us an inch or more. And even gets my area over .1 for the event. About 1/3 of us based on that..the northern third...2/3 get next to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12z continues the north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: 12z continues the north trend. It was more of a dry trend honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 GFS was basically identical with the track of the disturbance but it's weaker overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It was more of a dry trend honestly. maybe short range will refine it some. who knows. feel like I am marking time until something better shows itself like everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: maybe short range will refine it some. who knows. feel like I am marking time until something better shows itself like everyone else Yea, we're getting to crunch time here. Still have 24 hours until the disturbance exits the rockies. It's such a tight window with precip that little shifts feel like giant ones...lol Not much we can do is hope for the best as we play with fire on the southern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Arlington County has been brining the roads for 3 days straight so hopefully that summons some snow. Just want a .5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I'm really surprised the SE ridge isn't popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Arlington County has been brining the roads for 3 days straight so hopefully that summons some snow. Just want a .5”. Trying to use up stock to get their full 2018 budget? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Canadian still looks like our best friend for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Canadian still looks like our best friend for this. It trended a little south with precip extent too. THAT is a good sign. We're smack in the middle of the "tick" range. CMC didn't tick me off so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 So, essentially, we are back to looking like we are going to miss the Saturday event with an outside chance of a dusting? Or are we still in the game for 1-2?? We being NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Ukie ticked back to giving us something instead of nothing so there's another sign that a shutout is becoming less likely. Ukie would be 1" or less for most though so that part isn't awe inspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 39 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: So, essentially, we are back to looking like we are going to miss the Saturday event with an outside chance of a dusting? Or are we still in the game for 1-2?? We being NOVA. When in drought leave it out is what I'm thinking we may see some flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 probably going to be tough to get any sizable event in this type of airmass/flow, but it sure would be cool to see a 1-2" event with these temps. one thing i noticed that's different from 13/14 (aside from the fact that that winter was legendary for this area), was that it's been more sunny than that season. what i didn't like about 13/14 was that it felt chilly and cloudy for 4 months straight. i can tolerate 20s a lot better when the sun is shining, and the wind isn't up in your grill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Euro ticked a little south with the shield from 0z. Looks a little drier but solid track for us. Should avoid a shutout unless the whole thing dries up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ticked a little south with the shield from 0z. Looks a little drier but solid track for us. Should avoid a shutout unless the whole thing dries up. Drier than 0z? Looks wetter to me. With some good ratios, would probably drop 1” for you and me and 2” for the usual Hoffman-mappy deathband zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Drier than 0z? Looks wetter to me. With some good ratios, would probably drop 1” for you and me and 2” for the usual Hoffman-mappy deathband zone. Still time to NAM juice this up a touch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This place needs to look wintry at least with these cold temps. Come on inch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Drier than 0z? Looks wetter to me. With some good ratios, would probably drop 1” for you and me and 2” for the usual Hoffman-mappy deathband zone. I didn't have the precip panels so I jumped the gun. Looked drier to the west of us but that's not the case. It's a good run honestly. Better than I expected. Now we need to get Nam'd a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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