Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Congrats NE MD. Us Southerners won't see a drop of snow. These things rarely, if ever, trend South. It was actually a perfect pass. The mountain shadow is the what made it look bad south of the Potomac but imho if the gfs just nailed the track (who knows) then folks in nova would do just as well as md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 GFS is an improvement. I'll take my near 0.5" snow total and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: It was actually a perfect pass. The mountain shadow is the what made it look bad south of the Potomac but imho if the gfs just nailed the track (who knows) then folks on nova would do just as well as md. I hope so, Bob. Tracking over the past few days has taken a toll on my optimism. I'm also out of eggnog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It was actually a perfect pass. The mountain shadow is the what made it look bad south of the Potomac but imho if the gfs just nailed the track (who knows) then folks in nova would do just as well as md. Like I said, trajectory is better. Instead of slamming right into the mountains, it's slightly North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Canadian slightly North compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Like I said, trajectory is better. Instead of slamming right into the mountains, it's slightly North It slams right into the mountains. Due east trajectory no matter how you shake it crosses plenty of ridges on the way through. There is no avoiding that on any trajectory. The meat of the best lift moved dead center though the region. Good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It slams right into the mountains. Due east trajectory no matter how you shake it crosses plenty of ridges on the way through. There is no avoiding that on any trajectory. The meat of the best lift moved dead center though the region. Good run Now if we can just get it to juice up a little bit we could be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 these storms trend a little wetter in next 1-2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Canadian is the Gfs graded with a curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: these storms trend a little wetter in next 1-2 days. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Now if we can just get it to juice up a little bit we could be in business. It will be an interesting short range track as long as the track holds. No signs of the dreaded shift north putting us out of the game. Cmc shifted like 50 miles so that's noise. It did trim qpf from 12z. Not sure if that's noise of signs of a weaker disturbance in general. Wes loves the CMC. Dropped .2 right on his yard. Jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Canadian is the Gfs graded with a curve. On this run, snow lingers past 18Z so the next frame shows the bullseyes over Wes’ area with >0.2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Both cmc and Gfs trended a good bit stronger with the LP offshore . Hopefully we can get some rewards as the energy possibly starts to blossom overhead . Maybe a 1-3" is within reach Cmc and gfs are basically identical with the track. Lock that track in and take chances with more juice. Hopefully the ukie has an identical track. 12z tomorrow is probably the last chance for a significant shift in track. Small bumps are possible any run of course. I like what I see tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 So. Bottom line at this point, prior to the 1:00 am UKIE, we are, at least, looking at maybe 1-2 Saturday day/evening in NOVA and 2-4 in the hotter spots in MD??? Or am I just grasping...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: these storms trend a little wetter in next 1-2 days. We could realistically have light snow chances from 12/30 to the main event. I'm wondering why the southern stream is hitting more moisture in the Gulf on the GFS 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: So. Bottom line at this point, prior to the 1:00 am UKIE, we are, at least, looking at maybe 1-2 Saturday day/evening in NOVA and 2-4 in the hotter spots in MD??? Or am I just grasping...... That sounds about right from what came out so far. These kinds of deals can have upside but figuring that out is the really short term. Keep in mind that models are still initializing with the disturbance still off the pac coast. Once it clears the Rockies the models will have a good handle on qpf (for better or worse). It's going to be light no matter what but if someone pulls off .3 or so it could be 4-5". On the flip side our entire area may struggle to get .1 anywhere. My guess is eastern zones have the best shot at upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, gymengineer said: On this run, snow lingers past 18Z so the next frame shows the bullseyes over Wes’ area with >0.2”. You're right. The snowfall map must not have been in sync with the qpf map when I posted. My mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That sounds about right from what came out so far. These kinds of deals can have upside but figuring that out is the really short term. Keep in mind that models are still initializing with the disturbance still off the pac coast. Once it clears the Rockies the models will have a good handle on qpf (for better or worse). It's going to be light no matter what but if someone pulls off .3 or so it could be 4-5". On the flip side our entire area may struggle to get .1 anywhere. My guess is eastern zones have the best shot at upside. By eastern zones you mean Jackpotville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Warrior Bigfoot said: By eastern zones you mean Jackpotville I kinda like your area and the Delmarva. If the small slp off the coast decides to do anything quickly then some enhancement is on the table. It's a bit of a stretch but we've seen stuff like this more than once in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I kinda like your area and the Delmarva. If the small slp off the coast decides to do anything quickly then some enhancement is on the table. It's a bit of a stretch but we've seen stuff like this more than once in the past. We know where it’ll end up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Warrior Bigfoot said: We know where it’ll end up Yea, sparky will be reporting mod snow before I see my first flake and the some sort of weird w-e band over the northern tier will set up at the end to finish the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just as sure as we live and breathe lol Ukie didn’t look too hot but I might be missing the precip in between panels. Mountains go om nom nom with most of the QPF... leaving us with nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just as sure as we live and breathe lol Ukie didn’t look too hot but I might be missing the precip in between panels. On Weather.us the UKMET isn't out yet for 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just as sure as we live and breathe lol Ukie didn’t look too hot but I might be missing the precip in between panels. Ukie is a disaster and the only thing missing is the precip. The precip panels are accurate and track still looks good though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Mountains go om nom nom with most of the QPF... leaving us with nothing Making up for all the stuff I miss while in Arlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: See, THAT’S the hopeful tone I was hoping @yoda would strike. The run is a catastrophe, but we still have our track. It was a much better way of getting no precip than having the entire shield skip to the north. See, its easy to make getting nothing not feel so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Going to be difficult to move North much into that cold air maybe the center can slide in thru extreme sw va, I've seen that survive the mountains better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Yeh, the 6Z GFS finally sees something last minute. Just like all the other events. Seems its more of a NE MD, NJ type of thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs has the .10 " line just north of DC. South of 0z ..fwiw. Surprisingly dead in here actually Because everyone is planning for another January 96 storm duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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