Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 18z NAM hr 72 You didn't provide a pic, but I got you on that. Looks on board for sure Not a whole lot of precip, but all we need are some quick banding features and DC and suburbs could score 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, usedtobe said: Gives me an inch! 010" liquid so it could even be more if it is fluff. If it even occurs I have no opinion. Just pointing it out. It looks different from the past 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: You didn't provide a pic, but I got you on that. Looks on board for sure Not a whole lot of precip, but all we need are some quick banding features and DC and suburbs could score 1-3" Apologies. I was in the process but screwed it up. Thank you for providing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: I have no opinion. Just pointing it out. It looks different from the past 4 runs I don't either though I could see someone getting an inch if we get lucky and the clipper is potent enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Despite what J to the I says clippers hate Leesburg I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Apologies. I was in the process but screwed it up. Thank you for providing. I misread the QPF, I get 0.05" so probably 0.50" to an inch but better than the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, usedtobe said: I misread the QPF, I get 0.05" so probably 0.50" to an inch but better than the 12Z run. You just need .05 per run the next to runs and you'll get warning criteria. Jokes aside, what do you think of the weak surface reflection in western NC/VA that Mitch pointed out on the Euro? Nam has it too. I remember that being one of the things to look at for upside potential. My guess is flow is too flat for it to make any difference. There won't be any circulation with this one or if there is it will be very little at best. Grasping here Wes....grasping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I misread the QPF, I get 0.05" so probably 0.50" to an inch but better than the 12Z run. This version seems to be focused further south. I could see it snowing and sticking for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You just need .05 per run the next to runs and you'll get warning criteria. Jokes aside, what do you think of the weak surface reflection in western NC/VA that Mitch pointed out on the Euro? Nam has it too. I remember that being one of the things to look at for upside potential. My guess is flow is too flat for it to make any difference. There won't be any circulation with this one or if there is it will be very little at best. Grasping here Wes....grasping... I'd feel better if there was a strong vort to our south like the Euro showed yesterday. I don't see that low as being anything significant but who knows, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 26 minutes ago, Cobalt said: You didn't provide a pic, but I got you on that. Looks on board for sure Not a whole lot of precip, but all we need are some quick banding features and DC and suburbs could score 1-3" Check out that Jebman Deathband! Looks tasty! I take! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 yeah, this is a snowy pattern. 1-3" will probably verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: yeah, this is a snowy pattern. 1-3" will probably verify. Not really snowy in a climo sense, but in the sense that we could have a couple events pop up within hr 72 or 96. All it takes is one lucky 3-6" event to be considered "snowy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 In the sense that the southern stream precip block isn't there. Disturbances ride down the trough every 2-3 days in this pattern, most produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Not really snowy in a climo sense, but in the sense that we could have a couple events pop up within hr 72 or 96. All it takes is one lucky 3-6" event to be considered "snowy" It is my feeling this particular event will yield no more than 1 inch in the favored locations because there is no discernible vort max at h5. The NAM tends to over do precip. What there is of a vort max at h5 passes over just south of EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It is my feeling this particular event will yield no more than 1 inch in the favored locations because there is no discernible vort max at h5. The NAM tends to over do precip. What there is of a vort max at h5 passes over just south of EZF. I'm not saying this event yields 3-6", but I think 1-3" is on the table. Either way, it'll be a high ratio snowfall, so we need to hope to luck out. Safe bet would be DCA gets 0.5" and IAD gets a bit more of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I'm not saying this event yields 3-6", but I think 1-3" is on the table. Either way, it'll be a high ratio snowfall, so we need to hope to luck out. Safe bet would be DCA gets 0.5" and IAD gets a bit more of snowfall. I agree with this analysis but would like to see what the GFS does at 18z. This is becoming a short range event but the details at h5 should allow us to make a synopsis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The GFS seems to favor further south. Not convinced that is a final answer. It has snow where it wasn't last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: You just need .05 per run the next to runs and you'll get warning criteria. Jokes aside, what do you think of the weak surface reflection in western NC/VA that Mitch pointed out on the Euro? Nam has it too. I remember that being one of the things to look at for upside potential. My guess is flow is too flat for it to make any difference. There won't be any circulation with this one or if there is it will be very little at best. Grasping here Wes....grasping... 18z (yes, I said18z!) GEM still on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Nice work men. Lol. Since there's not going to be much of a circulation with this one, juice is the most important thing. Apps are going to eat and leave us a doggie bag. Trajectory is ripe for the apps to piss us off a little but if it packs enough juice we wont get totally screwed I liked the gfs pushing the stripe south of us. For whatever reason guidance today pretty much aimed everything right at us. It's a narrow stripe that seems to want to go over us and we're not far out in time....but still enough time for a gradual shift too far north....that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Actually, the 18z JMA bumped up to about .1" qpf judging by those cruddy qpf maps. 12z was under .05". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam total precip. IMO I think the 0z NAM looks better than 18z. Clipper looks more organized, it just needs a push 50 miles South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam total precip. That's a perfect straight line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: IMO I think the 0z NAM looks better than 18z. Clipper looks more organized, it just needs a push 50 miles South I agree. It looks more robust. Wish it didn't take that infamous tick to the north though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 anytime we need a north trend..it trends south and when we need a south trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Ji said: anytime we need a north trend..it trends south and when we need a south trend... What followed after south trend...wait...really south like out of our region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ji said: anytime we need a north trend..it trends south and when we need a south trend... I mean, that Dec 12-13 clipper did trend South last minute. Probably just a rare occurance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 GFS looks to do the same as the NAM. More organized system but probably a bit North. I like the trajectory though. Precip looks less likely to get squashed by the mountains in this scenario. Just need the right trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Congrats NE MD. Us Southerners won't see a drop of snow. These things rarely, if ever, trend South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Gfs is right where we want it track wise. It's good run and finally caught up completely with other guidance. Just need the track to hold and bump qpf over the next 48 hours and we're good for something more than a car topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 What I like seeing on both the Nam and now the Gfs is overall higher heights in the east on this run vs. past few ones. Hopefully, that means an improvement for the 1/3 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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