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Saturday December 30 Snow Obs and Disco

SnowGolfBro

By SnowGolfBro,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We really aren't far apart with this. You're looking at it from a regional perspective and I'm only concerned about mby. You think the Euro has done better. And it may well as far as first to ID features on the map, but if it doesn't snow of any real consequence imby, then I believe the Gfs did better because it minimized the system. So here's to hoping the Gfs is wrong. :drunk:

I'm with bob on this. The weather doesn't care about your yard. If the euro has a fairly accurate depiction of a very small scale system from 5 days out and it simply misses you by 50 miles and the gfs has nothing at all then yes from a bury your head in your own yard point of view the gfs was right in not showing snow. But that's not how the guidance is supposed to be used. If we simply used their output verbatim then there would be no forecasters needed. The fact is that if there ends up actually being a system like the ggem/U.K./ euro then they had the far superior depiction of the weather. Gfs was "right for the wrong reason" but it got the whole darn setup on a large scale wrong. In this hypothetical what if NYC gets 4". The gfs showed nothing. So it was awful there. The models aren't scored on the micro level. The gfs missed that there was even a threat. Anyone that knows squat about this can see how small scale the system is and how it could easily miss us. But at least we know it's even there. If we only had the gfs we wouldn't even be aware there is a threat of anything anywhere on Saturday. The gfs would be way less useful to an actual forecaster who has to worry about more then just what it does in your yard. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm with bob on this. The weather doesn't care about your yard. If the euro has a fairly accurate depiction of a very small scale system from 5 days out and it simply misses you by 50 miles and the gfs has nothing at all then yes from a bury your head in your own yard point of view the gfs was right in not showing snow. But that's not how the guidance is supposed to be used. If we simply used their output verbatim then there would be no forecasters needed. The fact is that if there ends up actually being a system like the ggem/U.K./ euro then they had the far superior depiction of the weather. Gfs was "right for the wrong reason" but it got the whole darn setup on a large scale wrong. In this hypothetical what if NYC gets 4". The gfs showed nothing. So it was awful there. The models aren't scored on the micro level. The gfs missed that there was even a threat. Anyone that knows squat about this can see how small scale the system is and how it could easily miss us. But at least we know it's even there. If we only had the gfs we wouldn't even be aware there is a threat of anything anywhere on Saturday. The gfs would be way less useful to an actual forecaster who has to worry about more then just what it does in your yard. 

Why do people feel the need to take sides? We're all a little disappointed.  We'll get over it as usual. 

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Jandurin

Jandurin

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Why do people feel the need to take sides? We're all a little disappointed.  We'll get over it as usual. 

Because one way is actually tracking weather and one way is basically the same as just sticking your head out of your house each day to see if it's currently doing weather.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Why do people feel the need to take sides? We're all a little disappointed.  We'll get over it as usual. 

Because I agree with bobs point and disagree with yours...it's not personal and I'm not frustrated or upset. You are allowed to feel however you want about it but I don't look at the guidance the same way. That's all. 

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
Posted

This is a progressive fast flow pattern with no blocking. Little to no chance of accumulating snowfall anywhere but the Allegheny Front in a pattern like this. Head to Snowshoe if you want anything substantial up to your shoe laces. 

Clipper systems will be starved of moisture and progressive with little chance to amplify unless a coastal gets going which would favor New England where northern stream jet energy is best. 

Our chances might improve first week of January with mean trough amplifying over the east. That’s our best shot. 

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SnowGolfBro

SnowGolfBro

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Posted

Honestly, if it snows I'm going to happy with Bob (for keeping me interested in the threat) and Mitch (for keeping me from getting too excited making the snow more fun) and if it fails I blame myself because I started the thread.  It would be nice if we are still tracking this come Friday. C'mon Happy Hour start the trend.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Because I agree with bobs point and disagree with yours...it's not personal and I'm not frustrated or upset. You are allowed to feel however you want about it but I don't look at the guidance the same way. That's all. 

 I'm a bottom line sorta guy. We've been going in circles now for a week to ten days chasing snow ghosts of a great pattern or storms and getting nothing.  I undetstand that on this board, if you are anything but pro snow, you will suffer the consequences. That said, Saturday hasn't come, but if you look at the Euro snow map posted below, compare it to yesterday's snowfall map of 3-4", then consider the Gfs' s nada all along, you can hopefully see my point. Anyway,  let's hope it snows soon.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_maryland_120.png

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 I'm a bottom line sorta guy. We've been going in circles now for a week to ten days chasing snow ghosts of a great pattern or storms and getting nothing.  I undetstand that on this board, if you are anything but pro snow, you will suffer the consequences. That said, Saturday hasn't come, but if you look at the Euro snow map posted below, compare it to yesterday's snowfall map of 3-4", then consider the Gfs' s nada all along, you can hopefully see my point. Anyway,  let's hope it snows soon.

 

We won't really know how much (if any) juice this little system has to work with until it's traversing the country. It's zipping along so we have another 36-48 hours before QPF (if any) is accurately modeled downstream. The track is still just good enough so we still have that piece and that's the most important piece cuz it can be a mini bomb and if it stays above or too far below the end result is the same. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We won't really know how much (if any) juice this little system has to work with until it's traversing the country. It's zipping along so we have another 36-48 hours before QPF (if any) is accurately modeled downstream. The track is still just good enough so we still have that piece and that's the most important piece cuz it can be a mini bomb and if it stays above or too far below the end result is the same. 

I'd give all the hair on my head for the Cmc to be right Saturday and next week. 

 

What?   Do you think I'm crazy enough to really give up something for snow? 

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted

The bottom line is the pattern "appeared" terrific like 5 days ago when it looked like there was a hose of moisture just taking aim at our area with plenty of cold air in place. That was incorrect, and we are back to a crappy pattern where it's very cold and dry and you are basically wishing that you might get lucky and small bands of very light snow jackpot your area. It's like an extremely poor man's version of 2013-2014. We loved that winter because it was continuous storms every few days overperforming and the cold kept the snow around. It's not even January yet so it's too early to say the winter is in trouble, but this pattern, unless we get very lucky like in 2013-2014, is going to have frustration and disappointment written all over it.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The bottom line is the pattern "appeared" terrific like 5 days ago when it looked like there was a hose of moisture just taking aim at our area with plenty of cold air in place. That was incorrect, and we are back to a crappy pattern where it's very cold and dry and you are basically wishing that you might get lucky and small bands of very light snow jackpot your area. It's like an extremely poor man's version of 2013-2014. We loved that winter because it was continuous storms every few days overperforming and the cold kept the snow around. It's not even January yet so it's too early to say the winter is in trouble, but this pattern, unless we get very lucky like in 2013-2014, is going to have frustration and disappointment written all over it.

There were plenty of lulls in 13-14. Don't forget that. December started with an event that was ok up north but nasomuch here. Then we had an insanely warm stretch before Christmas. 13-14 didn't even really get started until January and even then there were only 2-3 events in Jan IIRC. Feb/March was WIDE OPEN though. You can't really make the comparison to 13-14 yet. Snow totals and number of events to date aren't much different at all. It's a little early to make the comparison or to call this a poor man's version. 

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There were plenty of lulls in 13-14. Don't forget that. December started with an event that was ok up north but nasomuch here. Then we had an insanely warm stretch before Christmas. 13-14 didn't even really get started until January and even then there were only 2-3 events in Jan IIRC. Feb/March was WIDE OPEN though. You can't really make the comparison to 13-14 yet. Snow totals and number of events to date aren't much different at all. It's a little early to make the comparison or to call this a poor man's version. 

Right, that's why I said it's not even January yet so it's really too early to say, but I think this current pattern draw parallels to that. The question is the staying power of this pattern, do things shuffled and reset, does our luck change, etc. Just trying to calm down some of those snow weenies on suicide alert because a few runs five days ago showed a big snowstorm and the tide has really turned on the long range outlook since then.

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jonjon said:

This kind of pattern works well for places out this way.  We tend to squeeze our way to nice events, hopefully Saturday will be no different.

We just picked up 4" overnight and this morning when they were really just calling for flurries.

Nice. It's always fun when you get several times over the amount of snow you were forecasted to have. Snow surprises are the best.

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