WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I feel weirdly optimistic about this. Just think the dynamics and fluff factor will help us out. Probably I’m just weenieing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Negnao said: Hrrr is quite a bit farther south than the nam 3k with its precip field. Curious to see if the nam bros come in with higher qpf. Sref doesn't seem to support the hrrr. Where is the actual vort..or lack of a vort...pass? SW VA? It’s hard to see it..that seems like a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I feel weirdly optimistic about this. Just think the dynamics and fluff factor will help us out. Probably I’m just weenieing out. Being in Central MD certainly a better spot for the little we get tomorrow versus being In Fredericksburg. But I’ll be optimistic too and hope for a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 It’s my first thread so I’m hugging the Hrrr so i don’t get booed off the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 LWX mentioning 15-17:1 ratios in their p.m. discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Good luck. At least it's the first model that I can remember seeing this season that didn't put us in the precip minimum. I'm sure it will end up wrong. I think any precip will get sucked up as usual. And I will be counting flakes again. I’ve no faith in what the models are spitting out. Been there done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 If we can squeeze an incg out of this puppy, it'll last for 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 25 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Where is the actual vort..or lack of a vort...pass? SW VA? It’s hard to see it..that seems like a good spot Low is actually north of us. As other have mentioned, it's not a typical clipper system where it goes right over us or just to the south of us for best snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 34 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Radar looks juiced and early Radar hallucinations already? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Radar hallucinations already? Lol No I don't suffer from those. Go look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Both 18Z NAM's are more generous on the southern side of the DC metro area than the 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Negnao said: Low is actually north of us. As other have mentioned, it's not a typical clipper system where it goes right over us or just to the south of us for best snows. I don't think that's true. There is a low north but I think this bit of energy that broke off from the PAcNW system is passing south of us or we wouldn't get a thing. I could be wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: No I don't suffer from those. Go look Oh. I was talking about me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: No I don't suffer from those. Go look I will say I do feel as though the radar is definitely not on the underwhelming side. Of course we are well aware the mountains have quite the say down the line, however I’m cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I'm perfectly good with a blend of the Nams and the current HRRR right now.... Nice track of "the blob" and most would get close to or more than 1". Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm perfectly good with a blend of the Nams and the current HRRR right now.... Nice track of "the blob" and most would get close to or more than 1". Boom. Agreed, pending the Hrrr not playing it’s usual tricks, upstream looks solid, even some growing returns out in the shield. Had a chance to check any reports in IA/elsewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm perfectly good with a blend of the Nams and the current HRRR right now.... Nice track of "the blob" and most would get close to or more than 1". Boom. Yeah, seems like Nam's and HRRR all want to bring in an initial "blob" and and then another smaller "blob" before it gets it out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 NWS forecast upped totals in the region especially in FDK county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: NWS forecast upped totals in the region especially in FDK county. I'm trying to make out where the mountains are on that map. Can someone help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, UVVmet84 said: Agreed, pending the Hrrr not playing it’s usual tricks, upstream looks solid, even some growing returns out in the shield. Had a chance to check any reports in IA/elsewhere? 3-5" across Iowa today and into Illinois: http://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=dmx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm perfectly good with a blend of the Nams and the current HRRR right now.... Nice track of "the blob" and most would get close to or more than 1". Boom. I'd be happy with the NAM, I just want to take a few pictures of dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 3-5" across Iowa today and into Illinois: http://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=dmx Seems right going back through the runs. HRRR in close range had that area @ .25-.40. Of course we don't have the LE data yet but it looks like the HRRR did fairly well to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 57 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If we can squeeze an incg out of this puppy, it'll last for 10 days. Temps reach freezing tomorrow before the cold front. With the wind tomorrow night, don't be surprised if nothing is left on Sunday, even if an inch is scored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Let's get an over performer here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 RAP also looks decent, though I’d like a shift south. Beggars can’t be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: RAP also looks decent, though I’d like a shift south. Beggars can’t be choosers. I'll take my 0.1" and hope for 20:1+ ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 26 minutes ago, nj2va said: NWS forecast upped totals in the region especially in FDK county. it's times like this, as well as every-single day during the summer, I'm reminded that I turned down a job offer and the opportunity to live in Deep Creek 14 months ago. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: it's times like this, as well as every-single day during the summer, I'm reminded that I turned down a job offer and the opportunity to live in Deep Creek 14 months ago. Sigh. I would think there aren't a lot of year round jobs in those parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I’ll be in NYC. Looks similar to DC. Maybe a tad wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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