Interstate Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Can it really snow? The other night had a WWA and models 7 hours of precip but nothing. This feels similar. I had 100 or so flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Can it really snow? The other night had a WWA and models 7 hours of precip but nothing. This feels similar. No..no it can’t. But I have free time and a bottle of Jack..it will do something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 A good sign...relatively speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Deep Thunder model hugging baby! Tony Pann—love him but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Knowledgeable peeps- is there support for greater than 10:1 ratios? And if so what is the assumed cap for this particular event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, Warrior Bigfoot said: Knowledgeable peeps- is there support for greater than 10:1 ratios? And if so what is the assumed cap for this particular event Definitely. Omega's are decent enough in the dendritic growth zone. Look at the left side of the sounding. Column is really cold as well. It will be a very dry/fluffy event for those who get the best qpf. I could easily see someone get 1"+ of snow with just .05" LE. The snow on the ground will literally evaporate and not melt too with the extremely dry air mass on the heels. Sublimation conditions. This is what happens to snow in the Rockies. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Scraff said: Deep Thunder model hugging baby! Tony Pann—love him but... I've found it best to ignore the him. Pan is terriawful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Definitely. Omega's are decent enough in the dendritic growth zone. Look at the left side of the sounding. Column is really cold as well. It will be a very dry/fluffy event for those who get the best qpf. I could easily see someone get 1"+ of snow with just .05" LE. Thanks Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Interstate said: I had 100 or so flakes Still snowed.....win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Definitely. Omega's are decent enough in the dendritic growth zone. Look at the left side of the sounding. Column is really cold as well. It will be a very dry/fluffy event for those who get the best qpf. I could easily see someone get 1"+ of snow with just .05" LE. The snow on the ground will literally evaporate and not melt too with the extremely dry air mass on the heels. Sublimation conditions. This is what happens to snow in the Rockies. lol Bingo. I've watched 4 inches 'melt' into a damp deck at sons house before not even leaving a puddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 What did the Euro and ukie say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Interstate said: What did the Euro and ukie say? About the same as everything else. Euro shows .1 on Parrs ridge, .08 across the northern tier, and table scraps up to .05 for the rest of us. Ukie's crude maps show about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The short-range models that TTT offers all look pretty solid for at least .5” (given 10:1) for everyone. Decent trend. We have a new snowiest model to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The 850s moisture transport vectors look very good. I think this does partially thread the mountains needle by coming in thru extreme southwestern Virginia and then moving almost due east with a bit of north in it and we make out good with a fairly long period of steady snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Definitely. Omega's are decent enough in the dendritic growth zone. Look at the left side of the sounding. Column is really cold as well. It will be a very dry/fluffy event for those who get the best qpf. I could easily see someone get 1"+ of snow with just .05" LE. The snow on the ground will literally evaporate and not melt too with the extremely dry air mass on the heels. Sublimation conditions. This is what happens to snow in the Rockies. lol Happens up here too. Before someone shoots me I'm not complaining. Really ill take it every time. But often those big numbers you see here are because of 25-1 ratios. It's very dry fluff. And it sublimates and it melts fast the minute any sun hits it. That's why I prefer a wet snow. Couple years ago I got 6" of wet snow and it lasted 10 days otg. This December I had 5.5" of dry fluff and it was gone in a snap the minute the sun came out even with relatively cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Hopefully the snow shadow effect doesn’t do its ugly thing tomorrow like it does with 80% of all clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: Hopefully the snow shadow effect doesn’t do its ugly thing tomorrow like it does with 80% of all clippers. All we have gong for us is ratios and prayers. The rest looks less than good but better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 When is the start/end time for this? Would be nice to see a little light snow whiten up the roofs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Happens up here too. Before someone shoots me I'm not complaining. Really ill take it every time. But often those big numbers you see here are because of 25-1 ratios. It's very dry fluff. And it sublimates and it melts fast the minute any sun hits it. That's why I prefer a wet snow. Couple years ago I got 6" of wet snow and it lasted 10 days otg. This December I had 5.5" of dry fluff and it was gone in a snap the minute the sun came out even with relatively cold temps. LOL Hoffman never changes. Now the snow is too fluffy up there on the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL Hoffman never changes. Now the snow is too fluffy up there on the ridge. Classy problem to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL Hoffman never changes. Now the snow is too fluffy up there on the ridge. It was also kinda lumpy last time too. I like it when it's got that perfect smoothness too it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 All guidance seems to be locked in now which means something totally different will happen now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 42 minutes ago, BristowWx said: All we have gong for us is ratios and prayers. The rest looks less than good but better than nothing like bob has said, there's a little more moisture with this storm than other clippers, so maybe the mountains won't act like a total sponge which they have a tendency to do here when there's less than adequate energy/lift. i'm hoping that's the case at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Hrrr looks impressive with the precip field and southern expansion of the precip. Depending on how you feel about the hrrr's forecast ability, I guess that could be good or bad. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I know the h-triple-r sucks but I'm hugging it anyway. Snow isn't done falling yet either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Latest HRRR targets NOVA and Md. Gives me .2 QPF. I think someone can steal a couple of inches or maybe a little bit more out of this one. I hope that someone is me. I need the emotional boost after getting nothing but screwed so far his year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 What we should do is track what's happening upstream and see if the hrrr is up to it's antics or if it's performing well during the front half of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Radar looks juiced and early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Latest HRRR targets NOVA and Md. Gives me .2 QPF. I think someone can steal a couple of inches or maybe a little bit more out of this one. I hope that someone is me. I need the emotional boost after getting nothing but screwed so far his year Good luck. At least it's the first model that I can remember seeing this season that didn't put us in the precip minimum. I'm sure it will end up wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Hrrr is quite a bit farther south than the nam 3k with its precip field. Curious to see if the nam bros come in with higher qpf. Sref doesn't seem to support the hrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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