Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The stuff moving east of the blue Ridge is even filling the LWX radar shadow cone. That usually means it's not virga or at least getting close to the ground. I' probably hallucinating but I've seen a lot of virga over the years and that line doesn't have the typical virga look. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I'm going with the 2 inches the 12z WRF-ARW2 gives me. Seems legit enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 3:46 AM, Bob Chill said: The stuff moving east of the blue Ridge is even filling the LWX radar shadow cone. That usually means it's not virga or at least getting close to the ground. I' probably hallucinating but I've seen a lot of virga over the years and that line doesn't have the typical virga look. Weird Expand It's going to be interesting to see what happens in about 1 - 2 hours once those returns work east of I-81 into the more populous areas and people can mPING what they're seeing. If we even get flurries or the mangled flake out of this early stuff then we can hope and get giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 To put on my optimist hat I don't remember one model showing any returns SW of RIC where there are some showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Really more like a warm front producing developing radar returns east of mountains. Going to watch closely how that fills in. Not real dry and trying to precipitate into current 50-60%rh is a lot easier than 30-35% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 3:57 AM, BristowWx said: To put on my optimist hat I don't remember one model showing any returns SW of RIC where there are some showing up. Expand I don't remember even composite sim radar showing that either. Not even close to that far south. Probably means nothing but not mad seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Does base reflectivity on doppler usually filter out virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:04 AM, Bob Chill said: I don't remember even composite sim radar showing that either. Not even close to that far south. Probably means nothing but not mad seeing it. Expand Yea this isn't a bad thing to see, but I really would like to see that nudge east of I-81 by midnight 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:07 AM, evaporativecooler said: Does base reflectivity on doppler usually filter out virga? Expand No. You need surface observations for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Charlottesville should be a large enough city to get some reports from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I see some radar returns in S VA but am fairly sure that S PA will get most of the snow, as modeled lol. Also, clear as a bell here in Dale City, visibilities running a good 15 miles, super dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:21 AM, NovaTarHeel said: Charlottesville should be a large enough city to get some reports from. Expand Their NWS forecast calls for a 20% chance of snow tonight. Radar from LWX looks interesting down there, but the airport reports just overcast and 27 at 11 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nolahurricane Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Closing in on 1" in Canaan Valley. Tiniest flakes I've seen in years up here but it's coming down steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 0.5 degree scan from LWX starting to show some returns down by Wes...it's just virga but it's good to see the hole trying to close. The 1.5 degree loop showing the hole closing north of I-70 too so it's just good to see things trying to moisten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Whoever gets the snow will find everything sticks, ground is super cold, roads included. No boundary layer issues tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:32 AM, Eskimo Joe said: 0.5 degree scan from LWX starting to show some returns down by Wes...it's just virga but it's good to see the hole trying to close. The 1.5 degree loop showing the hole closing north of I-70 too so it's just good to see things trying to moisten up. Expand The first sign of an over achiever (and not declaring this as one) is a faster onset of moistening up the lower levels... Wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Pixie dust accumulating in Canaan. Accumulation is easy to come by when it’s 10 degrees. Should be a pretty good storm here. Hoping it leads to a good snow in DC. We are due. Hoping for some remnants on my lawn when i get back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Going to be nowtime obs shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 21/4 right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:33 AM, Jebman said: Whoever gets the snow will find everything sticks, ground is super cold, roads included. No boundary layer issues tonight. Expand Ground is brown and hard as a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 03z HRRR says dream on, weenies... pulls the shutout line even further north through DC, PG and southern AA now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 LWX has the WWA where they expect 1-2", but they should probably bring it further south. Even places that only get a dusting will have hazardous road conditions with the extremely cold temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:41 AM, Interstate said: Ground is brown and hard as a rock Expand Lots of spilled drinks at McD's around here, all frozen. That road is super cold right now, We hit 11 last night and 10 the night before. I wish I had a hose filled with icewater, I'd spray it all over the roads so I can enjoy a nice ice jebwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:42 AM, high risk said: LWX has the WWA where they expect 1-2", but they should probably bring it further south. Even places that only get a dusting will have hazardous road conditions with the extremely cold temperatures. Expand but doesn't that only figure in during a rush hour period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The big question is that dry air the 00z IAD RAOB captured. If that thing hold strong then we are all toast, but it we can punch that out by 1am - 3am then many are going to wake up to a surprise. The one thing that could help us out in that regard is that several of the ob sites in the area have light winds with an easterly component so perhaps we could see a slight moistening of the lower levels. Then again I could be 100% wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 0.25” so far in McHenry. Small flakes but coming down at a good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:43 AM, Interstate said: but doesn't that only figure in during a rush hour period? Expand That's correct. The lowered criteria for the WWA is for the immediate DC / Baltimore area during the AM/PM rush hour. Outside of that it's the usual WWA criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:43 AM, Interstate said: but doesn't that only figure in during a rush hour period? Expand Is that the rule now? That actually does ring a bell. Still wish they would emphasize that untreated roads tomorrow morning will be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 20/14 and still feeling good for an inch in Haymarket. If I was south of 66, I would not feel as confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 On 12/30/2017 at 4:45 AM, Eskimo Joe said: The big question is that dry air the 00z IAD RAOB captured. If that thing hold strong then we are all toast, but it we can punch that out by 1am - 3am then many are going to wake up to a surprise. The one thing that could help us out in that regard is that several of the ob sites in the area have light winds with an easterly component so perhaps we could see a slight moistening of the lower levels. Then again I could be 100% wrong. Expand Yeah I am slightly concerned about my dry 4 degree dewpoint, but am willing as much snow as possible on MD, PA and wherever in N VA that gets the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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