SnowGolfBro Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Okay. We have a real threat inside of 72 hours. This should help clean up the long range thread and focus on the upcoming Event. Lets do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 [crickets] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 27, 2017 Author Share Posted December 27, 2017 Nobody make any sudden movements. It could scare away the digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 CMC holds with a nice light event in the 1-3/2-4 range. GFS refuses to budge. Maybe by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC holds with a nice light event in the 1-3/2-4 range. GFS refuses to budge. Maybe by 0z. I thought it had a dusting over my house so it had budged a bit. AmI wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: I thought it had a dusting over my house so it had budged a bit. AmI wrong? It did budge a bit. IMHO- it has that feel of coming around to the rest of guidance just a couple days late. Still a small subtle system so hard to get a feel for reality until inside of 48 on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC holds with a nice light event in the 1-3/2-4 range. GFS refuses to budge. Maybe by 0z. looks like the difference is that the gfs dries it up as it cross the apps. cmc gives us some leftovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Ukie north with a glancing blow unless everything shifts south after 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Lock it up Yep, it nailed the dry-hole nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie north with a glancing blow unless everything shifts south after 72 Still looks a lot better than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 What does 00z euro show. I haven’t seen it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Still looks a lot better than the GFS And that's my point. Gfs hasn't been impressed with the system for us. Hopefully we squeeze something out of it, but after initial runs by the Euro and Ukie of hitting us with something decent, they're backing down to where the Gfs had been (nonevent). It's not unusual for the models to come to a consensus as I know you know. But unless things stop trending north or they get juicier, this system won't make footnote status for the winter. Which model did best is still to be determined. One thing I find more souring than most bad things about this hobby are overblown snow forecasts. Safe to say the Gfs looks good in that regard so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Ukie has a legit light event in NE MD with at least an inch for most of us. Wes hates this run though. A 75 mile shift south and it's a legit light event everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And that's my point. Gfs hasn't been impressed with the system for us. Hopefully we squeeze something out of it, but after initial runs by the Euro and Ukie of hitting us with something decent, they're backing down to where the Gfs had been. It's not unusual for the models to come to a consensus as I know you know. But unless things stop trending north or they get juicier, this system won't make footnote status for the winter. Which model did best is still to be determined. One thing I find more souring than most bad things about this hobby are overblown snow forecasts. Safe to say the Gfs will looks good in that regard so far. Dude, the ukie just upped the ante with total precip. It's not the best distribution but the ukie/CMC are WORLDS better and different than the GFS. I'm not sure what's going on with you but I swear you're rooting for the GFS to win and give everybody on the east coast nothing. ETA: and backing down to the GFS? Meaning they are trying to show nothing at all? Do you need glasses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie has a legit light event in NE MD with at least an inch for most of us. Wes hates this run though. A 75 mile shift south and it's a legit light event everywhere. With ratios that’s like 18” in NEMD. amped=crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 And for reference, here's the 0z ukie. Major step back if you don't want it to snow at all. http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017122700/ne/ukmet_acc_precip_ne_144.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, the ukie just upped the ante with total precip. It's not the best distribution but the ukie/CMC are WORLDS better and different than the GFS. I'm not sure what's going on with you but I swear you're rooting for the GFS to win and give everybody on the east coast nothing. ETA: and backing down to the GFS? Meaning they are trying to show nothing at all? Do you need glasses? Bob....the axis of the Ukie's heaviest precip just shifted north 40-50 miles did it not. I don't understand what's up with you to be honest. I certainly want it to snow. I don't care if I'm wrong. I just smell a rat and it's known as a north shift. We just disagree. So what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just so I make my point perfectly clear (which I think I did already), there is no doubt this event can miss to the north. We've been playing with the southern edge since it showed up and that's never the best place to be. However, I'm strongly believe there IS an event this weekend and if not overhead then close by to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Bob....the axis of the Ukie's heaviest precip just shifted north 40-50 miles did it not. I don't understand what's up with you to be honest. I certainly want it to snow. I don't care if I'm wrong. I just smell a rat and it's known as a north shift. We just disagree. So what. Just read my last post. You seem to be arguing that there is NO event AT ALL. That's the only thing I take issue with. I TOTALLY AGREE that it could miss us. The GFS has NO EVENT AT ALL. I do not agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 You are both right there will be an event but it will be a non event.. how is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You are both right there will be an event but it will be a non event.. how is that? Congrats Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 There can definitely be an "event" . It can easily shift south. Better chance than not of 1-3 if not a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just read my last post. You seem to be arguing that there is NO event AT ALL. That's the only thing I take issue with. I TOTALLY AGREE that it could miss us. The GFS has NO EVENT AT ALL. I do not agree with that. We really aren't far apart with this. You're looking at it from a regional perspective and I'm only concerned about mby. You think the Euro has done better. And it may well as far as first to ID features on the map, but if it doesn't snow of any real consequence imby, then I believe the Gfs did better because it minimized the system. So here's to hoping the Gfs is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We really aren't far apart with this. You're looking at it from a regional perspective and I'm only concerned about mby. You think the Euro has done better. And it may well as far as first to ID features on the map, but if it doesn't snow of any real consequence imby, then I believe the Gfs did better because it minimized the system. So here's to hoping the Gfs is wrong. Sayyyyy did you go to law school? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 This interesting. Euro puts a slp anomaly to our south at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 EURO is T-.5” at DCA, increasing to ~2” as you go towards the N MD border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Euro isn't too impressive...Carroll Co gets 0.1+....probably a 1" event for DC metro (particularly north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Euro isn't too impressive...Carroll Co gets 0.1+....probably a 1" event for DC metro (particularly north) Not as strong in general. More shear. Still another 36 hours before we know how much juice it has as it crosses the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 CMC is the best, Ukie in second place, Euro third, and GFS still hasn't shown anything except finally some flurries with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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