weathafella Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 GFS I believe will be a step down given height comparison. We’ll see if I am correct. edit-maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS has believe will be a step down given height comparison. We’ll see if I am correct. I think it may be similar or a hair better, given that s/w east of the canadian rockies is a bit better and also the confluence here is moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Randy4Confluence said: Anyone have any numbers for what the output is for the NAM for Boston and the N. Shore (wakefield)? 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think it may be similar or a hair better, given that s/w east of the canadian rockies is a bit better and also the confluence here is moving out. Yeah I put the edit in after seeing the later panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Man, ensemble sensitivity doesn't really have a coherent signal until 00z tonight. Unsurprisingly, a higher western ridge, sharper northern stream shortwave, and more Atlantic ridging is what we want to see to develop a stronger near benchmark low (56% of the variance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Start taking em up folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I would say by tonight, maybe even as late as 12z tomorrow, we want to start seeing lower heights near Lake Winnipeg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Man, ensemble sensitivity doesn't really have a coherent signal until 00z tonight. Unsurprisingly, a higher western ridge, sharper northern stream shortwave, and more Atlantic ridging is what we want to see to develop a stronger near benchmark low (56% of the variance). That s/w in the PAC NW is screwing us. Even on the 12z GFS you can see it begins to kick out heights in the Rockies and prevents our s/w from digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Start taking em up folks I see no reason to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I see no reason to. Based on your texts yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Start taking em up folks Start high and adjust higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Based on your texts yesterday? Based on everything I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 BOX map looks reasonable IMO kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That s/w in the PAC NW is screwing us. Even on the 12z GFS you can see it begins to kick out heights in the Rockies and prevents our s/w from digging. Yeah, overall we want to see higher heights all over the Pac NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Based on everything I see. Well it’s certainly more than sublimation cold and dry . This should have 2-4 to the Pike . Lots of 1-3 with the 4 near coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This won't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Last minute inv finger into CT fanny and then moving east. Ray approves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Should have stuck with my early thoughts on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 in for .5-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Looks like junk... the gfs that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This won't get it done. We put our faith in the RGEM. Would be nice to tick this a little more amped and then we're talking 3-5"...but ultimately I think we got too much to overcome and I'm leaning 1-2" with maybe some higher lollis on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We put our faith in the RGEM. Would be nice to tick this a little more amped and then we're talking 3-5"...but ultimately I think we got too much to overcome and I'm leaning 1-2" with maybe some higher lollis on the south coast. Figures this is the only time we can"t get it to shift west...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I think this will end up as basically a period of light snow for the coasts... 1-2” with emphasis on the 1” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The teleconnections argue for something more amped with better downstream ridging. With a +NAO developing, we should be able to kick that first wave out just in time so it doesn't completely hinder the downstream height rises of this (subsequent) wave. And with a +PNA and -AO we should see our developing shortwave intensifying as it moves across the Ohio River Valley region. I'm cautiously optimistic on something more than a 1-3" type event for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 CMC is better. But let’s face it-refresher or something for the bare ground crowd. OT but next week could be pretty interesting to put it mildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 UK looks closer than gfs. Qpf isn't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 UK looks much better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: UK looks closer than gfs. Qpf isn't out yet. Just came out. Definitely a nice 1-3 it seems in a lot of areas near and south of pike. More near the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Ukie is nice looking...widespread 1-3 with prob 4"+ southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC is better. But let’s face it-refresher or something for the bare ground crowd. OT but next week could be pretty interesting to put it mildly. I have not paid any attention to this weekend. Just a nonevent for me up here. I am starting to notice next week. For the first time in awhile both the Euro and GFS now have something major in the area around day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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