USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Ocean enhancement will really do wonders for me out here on the Outer Cape. Also the 12z NAM is maintaining strength or maybe strengthening the precip shield associated with our clipper over Chicago this time tomorrow morning. Something to watch on radar imagery as the day goes forward tomorrow. NAM and GFS consensus would bring a general 5-10" of snow for me considering lesser ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: GFS went from nada to basically the snowiest in less than 24hrs. #mosttrustedmodel It's trusted when it's the most snowy. That being said, GEFS and NAM didn't look too bad either. EURO now playing Dr. No. I think we can still trend this to at least a 1-3" event S of the Pike in all of SNE and for SE MA / E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 NAM won't be much help unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: It's trusted when it's the most snowy. That being said, GEFS and NAM didn't look too bad either. EURO now playing Dr. No. I think we can still trend this to at least a 1-3" event S of the Pike in all of SNE and for SE MA / E MA. Well it’s always been 1-3 or 2-4 Pike south. That has been what it’s looked like for 3 days. It’s just can we trend it higher or is that as much as we can do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This. Cold alone does not make for great ratios. the ratio discussion really gets wild in the more southern threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Oh well. It was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Scott, my sources aren't even to the coast yet with the clipper, how do you already know the end of the NAM run before it happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Oh well. It was fun. Can't see past hour 39 on the NAM. I'm guessing it laid a turd? That being said, I'm holding out for the varsity players to post at 12z before narrowing the goal posts. A bad NAM run probably sways me about 0.1% one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Scott, my sources aren't even to the coast yet with the clipper, how do you already know the end of the NAM run before it happens? #scooterknows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Can't see past hour 39 on the NAM. I'm guessing it laid a turd? That being said, I'm holding out for the varsity players to post at 12z before narrowing the goal posts. A bad NAM run probably sways me about 0.1% one way or the other. It's the NAM..I would think people got the joke. Anyways, I would have liked to see it dig a bit more with height rises ahead. We didn't really see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's the NAM..I would think people got the joke. Anyways, I would have liked to see it dig a bit more with height rises ahead. We didn't really see that. Never fails to get people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Never fails to get people. That said, it wasn't the trend I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: the ratio discussion really gets wild in the more southern threads Yep, they do. I'm already finding myself knowing a lot more about what determine the snow ratio on this sub-forum than I ever did in few years of hanging out in the SE sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Yep, they do. I'm already finding myself knowing a lot more about what determine the snow ratio on this sub-forum than I ever did in few years of hanging out in the SE sub-forum. High ratio on the GFS, TTs too, NAM is not and might be only lighter snow with some virga. Oddly the NAM has better lift but more dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 But with that better lift the Kuchera numbers along the RI coast produce on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: But you then look at bufkit to see how the Cobb Ratios are, this is for IJD on the GFS I just did the same thing, but check the date. The GFS has been stuck on 12/9 and 12/10 for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Garbage NAM run at 12z...hopefully it's just beign the NAM and not a sign of the rest of 12z guidance....we had a positive trend overnight that would be nice to keep going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This is the Cobb out put for IJD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: I just did the same thing, but check the date. The GFS has been stuck on 12/9 and 12/10 for days now. I deleted it I f 'd up. reposted the chart instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 You can click on "snow ratio" in Bufkit from the "Overview" window and it will graph it. The GFS probably averages 15:1 for IJD, but does have two spikes to 20:1 around 14z Sat and 06z Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 09Z SREFs just went crazy Yeah a lot of big hits in there...but they hold about as much weight with me these days as the NOGAPS. Always overamped it seems. Those are the models that powederfreak is usually looking at to get his digital snow fix when Scooter is getting smoked on all the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah a lot of big hits in there...but they hold about as much weight with me these days as the NOGAPS. Always overamped it seems. Those are the models that powederfreak is usually looking at to get his digital snow fix when Scooter is getting smoked on all the other guidance. RGEM extended give about .2 to all of CT Coast , all of RI and EMA south of Boston, a 2-4 or 1-3 seems likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah a lot of big hits in there...but they hold about as much weight with me these days as the NOGAPS. Always overamped it seems. Those are the models that powederfreak is usually looking at to get his digital snow fix when Scooter is getting smoked on all the other guidance. LOL. Sipping a double bourbon looking at all the ARW output. Hoping, praying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 At least the 12z Nam got me up near 20 F on Sat. We thaw freeze, less..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12 hours ago, dendrite said: Should get a nice jump in the normals in a few years when we toss the 80s and add the 10s. Local long term co-op has 86.5" for 81-10, and 91-20 to date is at 91.1". That's what happens when their least snowy decade, 75.6" in the '80s, falls off the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 NAM COBB for IJD 171230/1900Z 61 VRB02KT 20.7F SNOW 16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 171230/2000Z 62 VRB02KT 20.9F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 14:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 171230/2100Z 63 VRB02KT 20.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 171230/2200Z 64 08003KT 20.6F SNOW 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 14:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 171230/2300Z 65 05003KT 20.6F SNOW 22:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 171231/0000Z 66 03003KT 20.6F SNOW 23:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 18:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 171231/0100Z 67 VRB02KT 20.6F SNOW 19:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 18:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 171231/0200Z 68 VRB02KT 20.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 17:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: RGEM extended give about .2 to all of CT Coast , all of RI and EMA south of Boston, a 2-4 or 1-3 seems likely 12z RGEM looks pretty zonked at 48 hours, so hopefully it's onto something there. Definitely more amped than the NAM. The extended version later will prob look decent if 48 hours is any indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Anyone have any numbers for what the output is for the NAM for Boston and the N. Shore (wakefield)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z RGEM looks pretty zonked at 48 hours, so hopefully it's onto something there. Definitely more amped than the NAM. The extended version later will prob look decent if 48 hours is any indication. Yeah that is much better. Definitely more of a digging look there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that is much better. Definitely more of a digging look there. Yeah mini comma head over se areas at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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