January 2018 Discussion

[OHweather]

Honest question for RC or anyone else who may have a guess on this, as I'm not privy to internal discussions on this...but what happened to the criteria for a WWA due to freezing rain being any amount of freezing rain? 

A lack of ice crystals resulting in freezing drizzle wasn't exactly a surprise this morning as soundings from a few models showed it (and BUFKIT explicitly tells you there's no ice crystals in the cloud if there isn't saturation to at least -10C), yet many offices didn't mention it until it was being reported and no offices other than LOT issued an advisory for it.  Freezing drizzle is nasty stuff on untreated surfaces once they fall below freezing, and I really don't think issuing a Special Weather Statement after ZL and icy roads have been reported helps anyone out all that much.  Heard of some accidents this morning due to icy roads.  Had a situation a couple of weeks ago here where well-advertised rain showers occurred before temps rose above freezing for a couple of hours (and it was coming off of some very cold temps so roads were very cold) and CLE, despite discussing it for a couple of days, never issued an advisory due to the light nature of the precip and brief window.  Roads ended up a sheet of ice, even in afluent/well populated areas, until salt trucks could make their rounds.  It lasted all of an hour or two, but no one was ready for it and there were a lot of accidents, as you'd expect when roads are covered in ice.  I'm just curious how a criteria of "any freezing rain" turns into no advisories being issued when it is occurring or forecast to occur soon, and often results in slick conditions.  I have to imagine putting an advisory out ahead of time increases the likelihood of DOTs and other snow removal companies pre-treating some roads than if there are no headlines issued.  Not to sound critical, but I just wonder how ZL or ZR with no advisory can happen somewhat frequently in some areas given the criteria and given the known impact it has to untreated surfaces.

[Snowstorms]

With no immediate snow in the forecast between today and Jan 31st, YYZ will most likely finish the month with around ~6.0". Way below the normal of 12.0". 

To put this into perspective, this will be the 4th consecutive January with below normal snowfall at YYZ. Even worse, only 2014, 2011, and 2009 had featured above average snowfall in January since 2006!! The January snow drought continues, ugh. 

 

[RCNYILWX]

Honest question for RC or anyone else who may have a guess on this, as I'm not privy to internal discussions on this...but what happened to the criteria for a WWA due to freezing rain being any amount of freezing rain? 
A lack of ice crystals resulting in freezing drizzle wasn't exactly a surprise this morning as soundings from a few models showed it (and BUFKIT explicitly tells you there's no ice crystals in the cloud if there isn't saturation to at least -10C), yet many offices didn't mention it until it was being reported and no offices other than LOT issued an advisory for it.  Freezing drizzle is nasty stuff on untreated surfaces once they fall below freezing, and I really don't think issuing a Special Weather Statement after ZL and icy roads have been reported helps anyone out all that much.  Heard of some accidents this morning due to icy roads.  Had a situation a couple of weeks ago here where well-advertised rain showers occurred before temps rose above freezing for a couple of hours (and it was coming off of some very cold temps so roads were very cold) and CLE, despite discussing it for a couple of days, never issued an advisory due to the light nature of the precip and brief window.  Roads ended up a sheet of ice, even in afluent/well populated areas, until salt trucks could make their rounds.  It lasted all of an hour or two, but no one was ready for it and there were a lot of accidents, as you'd expect when roads are covered in ice.  I'm just curious how a criteria of "any freezing rain" turns into no advisories being issued when it is occurring or forecast to occur soon, and often results in slick conditions.  I have to imagine putting an advisory out ahead of time increases the likelihood of DOTs and other snow removal companies pre-treating some roads than if there are no headlines issued.  Not to sound critical, but I just wonder how ZL or ZR with no advisory can happen somewhat frequently in some areas given the criteria and given the known impact it has to untreated surfaces.

I'm of the mentality that any amount of ice on roads is advisory worthy with temperatures at least a few degrees below freezing. I think that the decision for SPS vs advisory sometimes comes down to overall confidence in how widespread the threat is, which can be tough to gauge especially during the overnight hours. I'm guessing that was the thought for IND and IWX and anywhere downstream also affected this morning. But overall for me, ice on roads is not usually something I want to mess with and I feel that it's better to be safe and go the advisory route a lot of the time.

As far as how it played out this morning (I didn't get home til 10am after my mid night shift which I stayed late on to help out the day shift), once it became clear how bad roads were getting it was a no brainer to go WWA and at least get it out there before the height of the rush, which was at 5am central when we issued it.

The potential for ice lacking aloft was noted and concerning, but RAP soundings over northern IL did indicate saturation up to -10 to -12C, so it was right on the borderline. My thinking initially was that we would maintain mostly flurries if/when it would be precipitating and in fact most automated sites that were reporting weather were reporting flurries and we had only gotten snow grains at the office. ORD actually had 0.3" of snow overnight due to aircraft seeding. But then we started getting the reports, the light echoes become more focused and we also flipped over to mostly ZL at LOT with the parking lot and walkway becoming a skating rink before 5am after being dry around 4am.

Ideally we would've gotten the advisory sooner for lead time for the salt trucks to get out there as you mentioned. But for my office's part and being there in a position of responsibility for this event, I am glad we got the advisory out when we did though a lot of damage had already been done.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[OHweather]

35 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm of the mentality that any amount of ice on roads is advisory worthy with temperatures at least a few degrees below freezing. I think that the decision for SPS vs advisory sometimes comes down to overall confidence in how widespread the threat is, which can be tough to gauge especially during the overnight hours. I'm guessing that was the thought for IND and IWX and anywhere downstream also affected this morning. But overall for me, ice on roads is not usually something I want to mess with and I feel that it's better to be safe and go the advisory route a lot of the time.

As far as how it played out this morning (I didn't get home til 10am after my mid night shift which I stayed late on to help out the day shift), once it became clear how bad roads were getting it was a no brainer to go WWA and at least get it out there before the height of the rush, which was at 5am central when we issued it.

The potential for ice lacking aloft was noted and concerning, but RAP soundings over northern IL did indicate saturation up to -10 to -12C, so it was right on the borderline. My thinking initially was that we would maintain mostly flurries if/when it would be precipitating and in fact most automated sites that were reporting weather were reporting flurries and we had only gotten snow grains at the office. ORD actually had 0.3" of snow overnight due to aircraft seeding. But then we started getting the reports, the light echoes become more focused and we also flipped over to mostly ZL at LOT with the parking lot and walkway becoming a skating rink before 5am after being dry around 4am.

Ideally we would've gotten the advisory sooner for lead time for the salt trucks to get out there as you mentioned. But for my office's part and being there in a position of responsibility for this event, I am glad we got the advisory out when we did though a lot of damage had already been done.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for the reply.  I will agree that soundings were really right on the fence, as it was the same here.  What it resulted in was mainly some small snow grains when it came down a bit harder and a drizzle when the precip was lighter, and it sounds like similar in your area.  It got pretty slick here by about midnight despite how warm it was not even 24 hours prior.  An advisory issued a good couple of hours before most people hit the roads is certaintly helpful, and I don't mean to sound too critical of your office's handling of it.  I can understand why advisories weren't issued well in advance given uncertainty over whether it'd be flurries or freezing drizzle and over how widespread it'd be, though once reports came in I think more offices should've gone to an advisory...and perhaps an SPS issued the evening before given the uncertainty could've raised awareness, as I'm sure many DOTs are weather-savy enough to pay attention to those.  It is really a fine line when dealing with amounts that will be barely measurable...it doesn't take much to go from nothing to a mess, especially if roads don't have any treatment on them. I obviously agree with your line of thinking in general about ice on the roads. 

[Jim Martin]

Snow showers moving across Northwest Ohio this hour, with temperatures holding steady in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

[OHweather]

There's been a persistent area of snow showers developing over the Detroit River into Canada this afternoon.  Not sure if the open water on the river is helping cause them or not, but something that caught my attention either way.  

[IWXwx]

We've had quite the variety of precip today, including FZDZ, SN, GS, and I believe a little PL mixed in. Or as ASOS says, UP.

[Hoosier]

After today's minor snow, ORD is still a tick below 10" on the season, sitting at 9.9"

The last time it took this long to get to 10" was in the winter of 2012-13, which took until February 7.

[Chicago Storm]

After today's minor snow, ORD is still a tick below 10" on the season, sitting at 9.9"

The last time it took this long to get to 10" was in the winter of 2012-13, which took until February 7.

Somehow added an additional 0.1” this afternoon, so up to 10” in the season now.

 

Aircraft seeding snow ftw/ftl, 0.4” of it total to be exact.

[Hoosier]

This caught my eye from the drought monitor:  

The Iowa State Climatologist has received reports of low farm pond and well levels in southeast Iowa. As noted by the Missouri State Climatologist, drought impacts developed late last fall and are continuing this winter. These include: Producers are feeding hay due to minimal fall grass growth and little to no hay cuttings; some producers are moving cattle or hauling water because of low or empty ponds, or little to no flow in creeks and springs, and many are saying it’s worse than 2012; since many farmers are feeding hay earlier than usual, they are beginning to cull their herds to reduce the amount of animals that will need feed through the winter; producers will likely feed lower quality hay and cows will be in poorer condition coming out of the winter, which may reduce future calf crop numbers; and wells are running low or going dry. 

 

[DAFF]

21 hours ago, OHweather said:

There's been a persistent area of snow showers developing over the Detroit River into Canada this afternoon.  Not sure if the open water on the river is helping cause them or not, but something that caught my attention either way.  

The mood flakes of the day were a nice surprise although didn't amount to much. A couple of heavier bursts did whiten up hard surfaces for a few hours.

 

As to the discussion on the freezing rain. When the event lasts less than 2 hrs and has a certainty of 50 % of verification I think the best mode is a Special Weather Statement which can be released and repeated as the event unfolds. Whenever I see a freezing rain is a possibility I will 95% of the time pre-salt unless During my asphalt analysis I discover the ground temps are above freezing. My test is simple. A cup of cold water splashed upon concrete and asphalt on the north side of a building or shady region. If I see ice crystals or a freeze up during the test then I salt everything. This is the best test when temps are warming. When cooling down I watch the trees, when they start to icicle I start poring the salt.

[Hoosier]

As we enter the final week of January

 

[Hoosier]

Tomorrow looks fairly windy.

[Jim Martin]

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

As we enter the final week of January

 

Detroit area still in the positive column (with nothing currently on the ground).

[nwohweather]

Don’t see this often

[Jim Martin]

Sunset this evening. 1/25/2018.

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

As we enter the final week of January

 

Is that map yr to date, or percent of of avg annual totals. It's really not clear. I know that the NOAA winter outlook maps only cover DJF for instance. This appears to be an annual map with it starting from July tho.

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Is that map yr to date, or percent of of avg annual totals. It's really not clear. I know that the NOAA winter outlook maps only cover DJF for instance. This appears to be an annual map with it starting from July tho.

It's to date, so percent of what's average from July 1-January 24.

[bowtie`]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

As we enter the final week of January

 

Wishing you were back at LAF?

[michsnowfreak]

Today is not only the 181st birthday of the great state of Michigan, but it is also the exact halfway point of the snow season at DTW. Snowfall is still running above normal at all locations in Southeast Michigan, however as ice already lamented, you have to go to far northern Michigan to see any snow currently on the ground

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

It's 52 out right now, and the first time I've been outside comfortably without a coat in months. A nice break from the cold.

[hawkeye_wx]

Ideal timing.... clouds through mid morning and again by late afternoon, but full sun from late morning through mid afternoon, has allowed my area to soar well into the 50s.  I'm sitting at 56.   

 

[Stebo]

54 per my car. Solid day out there.

[Hoosier]

17 hours ago, bowtie` said:

Wishing you were back at LAF?

Heh, interesting little bullseye.

[Jim Martin]

[cyclone77]

52 here today, MLI 56 which was 2 degrees shy of the old record.

 

[Hoosier]

Despite the very cold open to the month, some areas around the Lakes are looking to finish the month close to or even warmer than average in some cases.

[hawkeye_wx]

The Cedar Rapids airport hit 58 this afternoon, well short of the record(63), but darn mild for January.  It's still 53 at 7pm.  The daffodils popped above ground for the first time today, as they often do during winter thaws.  We won't be seeing these temps again for a while, though.

[thomp2mp]

In Holland this weekend visiting friends. BIV still reporting 50° with gusts over 40mph. It is lukewarm