Hoosier Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I think most of us are itching for some moist systems coming out of the west/southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 100 years ago, one of the legendary winter months. Even areas deep into the Ohio Valley had 30+" for the month. Also had a weaker version of the 1978 Superbomb. No pressure for a redux, mother nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 20 hours ago, Hoosier said: I think most of us are itching for some moist systems coming out of the west/southwest. Sadly its just going to be cold and dry for the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Will be interesting to see how cold it gets early next week. That is a big boy high coming down and we will be laying down some new snow in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Will be interesting to see how cold it gets early next week. That is a big boy high coming down and we will be laying down some new snow in the coming days. Yea some crazy stuff showing up. Euro shows 2 brutal shots for our neck of the woods, one is around next Tuesday with lows around -12. The bigger shot comes late next week with -20. Of course that would probably be dependent on the bomb its exploding off the NE coast at that time causing the PV to plunge into the southern great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Enjoy hawkeye and cyclone...I ran last night's 00z GEM out of my basement. More realistically - given GFS and Euro agreement, could see some -10 to -20 temps in the first few days of 2018, especially if any new snow cover occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Enjoy hawkeye and cyclone...I ran last night's 00z GEM out of my basement. More realistically - given GFS and Euro agreement, could see some -10 to -20 temps in the first few days of 2018, especially if any new snow cover occurs. lol that's crazy. I also wouldn't rule out -20 or even colder if we can time the high pressure ridge right one of those mornings. Also need to avoid the cirrus that likes to quickly stream in from the northwest towards the ridge as WAA commences upstream. With several inches of fresh/dry snow we have some big potential with this setup. DVN already has us down to -15 Tuesday morning, and has mentioned they may need to lower mins even more in subsequent forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Based on progged track of the surface high, best radiational cooling conditions (lightest winds) may be in a zone from the western Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Did a little research of the last couple of years, and YYZ/Toronto has taken a huge hit on January snowfall. January 2009: 18.1" January 2010: 4.26" January 2011: 17.3" January 2012: 6.38" January 2013: 5.67" January 2014: 12.6" January 2015: 6.38" January 2016: 4.17" January 2017: 4.01" Average for Jan: 11.8" 3/9 - at/above average, 6/9 - all way below. Yikes!! Hopefully we turn this around in January 2018 but looking at the models, it doesn't seem likely through the first 10 days atleast. ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 Not a huge fan of this look for January over the past few days. Hopefully we flush this in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Maybe March will be where its at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 January thaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Monday night forecasted low of -16 which would break the record of -13 set back in 1968. Probably going to break a low max Monday as well, forecasted high of -1. Little stat on just how bad snowfall has been around these parts, from January 1st-December 24th we had only recorded 6.1” of snow until that clipper dropped 3.2” on Sunday. That’s remarkbale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 Final CFS run for January. Not exciting to see the dry look, but RC had a good post (which was really Isotherm's post) in the long range thread about why things may be looking up. Perhaps it won't end up so dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I'd like to see a storm blanket ALL of Michigan early on.... Then drop back into NW flow and keep it all intact. Looks like a more active 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 It would just take one panhandle hook to blow that CFS forecast right out of the water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2017 Author Share Posted December 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, IWXwx said: It would just take one panhandle hook to blow that CFS forecast right out of the water... Pretty much. Many of the north/west areas of the region average less than 2" of precip in January. Over toward your area and the Ohio Valley is 2+. Maybe the CFS is suffering from a dry hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Final CFS run for January. Not exciting to see the dry look, but RC had a good post (which was really Isotherm's post) in the long range thread about why things may be looking up. Perhaps it won't end up so dry. Its crazy how much the run can change (warm to cold, wet to dry) in a few days time. Just reinforces how unpredictable the long range really is. I try not to sweat precip too much. Now granted, what happened in Detroit in December was kind of the perfect storm so to speak. Liquid precip is ending up almost an inch below normal, and snowfall is double normal. It takes a lot for that to go right (no rain, all snow and most of the snow being powder), but it shows it can happen. Likewise in a month showing colder and wetter than normal, it is possible to have a nightmare scenario of rainstorm followed by bitter cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 still waiting for that first snowstorm of an inch. I'll be sure to take lots of pictures to share. Have a blessed New Yr all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 ILX calling for -16 below here tomorrow night wind chill around -35 below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Final CFS run for January. Not exciting to see the dry look, but RC had a good post (which was really Isotherm's post) in the long range thread about why things may be looking up. Perhaps it won't end up so dry. clown maps of the 17-18 winter. I think the cutter will happen issue is the air mass it brings on the eastern flanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Year!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 We are already down to -19 per CID, at this rate the projected low of -22 may bust high. Marshalltown is already down to -20. Can't remember our last -20 reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Happy New Year! -12 here. Just across the river at Clinton they are -14 with a wind chill of -39. Pretty frigid night out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 0 degrees. Veritable shorts weather. Happy new year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 0 degrees. Veritable shorts weather. Happy new year everyone! If it was 1 above I'd have classified it as a torch, but at zero nasomuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 currently a warm -11 with a wind chill of -32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: 0 degrees. Veritable shorts weather. Happy new year everyone! It really is relative. Yesterday it was sunny and no breeze in the afternoon and my wife said, "wow, it's really warmed up".... It was 17 degrees . Just think what it's going to feel like when we finally crack freezing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Got down to -13 last night. That was with a -26 wind chill also, which is a bit surprising with how protected from the wind my weather station is. Can't imagine out in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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