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January 2018 Discussion


Hoosier

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Will be interesting to see how cold it gets early next week.  That is a big boy high coming down and we will be laying down some new snow in the coming days.  

Yea some crazy stuff showing up.   Euro shows 2 brutal shots for our neck of the woods, one is around next Tuesday with lows around -12.  The bigger shot comes late next week with -20.   Of course that would probably be dependent on the bomb its exploding off the NE coast at that time causing the PV to plunge into the southern great lakes.

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7 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Enjoy hawkeye and cyclone...I ran last night's 00z GEM out of my basement. :D

More realistically - given GFS and Euro agreement, could see some -10 to -20 temps in the first few days of 2018, especially if any new snow cover occurs.  

gem_T2m_us_23.png

lol that's crazy.  I also wouldn't rule out -20 or even colder if we can time the high pressure ridge right one of those mornings.  Also need to avoid the cirrus that likes to quickly stream in from the northwest towards the ridge as WAA commences upstream.  With several inches of fresh/dry snow we have some big potential with this setup.  DVN already has us down to -15 Tuesday morning, and has mentioned they may need to lower mins even more in subsequent forecasts.  

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Did a little research of the last couple of years, and YYZ/Toronto has taken a huge hit on January snowfall. 

January 2009: 18.1"

January 2010: 4.26"

January 2011: 17.3"

January 2012: 6.38"

January 2013: 5.67"

January 2014: 12.6"

January 2015: 6.38"

January 2016: 4.17"

January 2017: 4.01" 

Average for Jan: 11.8" 

3/9 - at/above average, 6/9 - all way below. Yikes!!

Hopefully we turn this around in January 2018 but looking at the models, it doesn't seem likely through the first 10 days atleast. :( ugh!

 

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Monday night forecasted low of -16 which would break the record of -13 set back in 1968. Probably going to break a low max Monday as well, forecasted high of -1. 

 

Little stat on just how bad snowfall has been around these parts, from January 1st-December 24th we had only recorded 6.1” of snow until that clipper dropped 3.2” on Sunday. That’s remarkbale. 

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16 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

It would just take one panhandle hook to blow that CFS forecast right out of the water...:whistle:

Pretty much.  Many of the north/west areas of the region average less than 2" of precip in January.  Over toward your area and the Ohio Valley is 2+.

Maybe the CFS is suffering from a dry hangover.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Final CFS run for January.  Not exciting to see the dry look, but RC had a good post (which was really Isotherm's post) in the long range thread about why things may be looking up.  Perhaps it won't end up so dry.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201801.thumb.gif.68694cf3aaa9132ab15891f7c78e80aa.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201801.thumb.gif.30c332cd31af9f6ec00cd3e29ff113c6.gif

Its crazy how much the run can change (warm to cold, wet to dry) in a few days time. Just reinforces how unpredictable the long range really is.

 

I try not to sweat precip too much. Now granted, what happened in Detroit in December was kind of the perfect storm so to speak. Liquid precip is ending up almost an inch below normal, and snowfall is double normal. It takes a lot for that to go right (no rain, all snow and most of the snow being powder), but it shows it can happen. Likewise in a month showing colder and wetter than normal, it is possible to have a nightmare scenario of rainstorm followed by bitter cold and dry.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Final CFS run for January.  Not exciting to see the dry look, but RC had a good post (which was really Isotherm's post) in the long range thread about why things may be looking up.  Perhaps it won't end up so dry.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201801.thumb.gif.68694cf3aaa9132ab15891f7c78e80aa.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201801.thumb.gif.30c332cd31af9f6ec00cd3e29ff113c6.gif

clown maps of the 17-18 winter. I think the cutter will happen issue is the air mass it brings on the eastern flanks.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

0 degrees.  Veritable shorts weather. Happy new year everyone!

It really is relative.  Yesterday it was sunny and no breeze in the afternoon and my wife said, "wow, it's really warmed up".... 

It was 17 degrees :lol:.

Just think what it's going to feel like when we finally crack freezing!

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