weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, ice1972 said: Which map/maps? Look under the upper air tab on the mesoanalysis site...you'll be able to overlay all levels of frontogenesis http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Quickly up to steady snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I’m not so sure the precip is making it totally to the ground.....we’ve been under blue to green returns most of the way from orange to Berlin and it hasn’t been snowing the whole time and wasn’t that heavy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 pm update... Storm taking aim on S New England. Primary low over the E Great Lakes meeting up with secondary energy off the Mid-Atlantic. The E inflow apparent as pressure falls begin to emerge. The parent H5 trof beginning to undergo a negative-tilt as the parent potent vortmax rounds through the base increasing the cyclonic curvature. QG-forcing just starting to emerge, frontogenesis and moisture convergence pulling together and tightening, deformation evolving. Anticipating a system that will pack a wallop across S New England tonight going into Monday. Expanded winter weather headlines. The storm system expected to over-perform, the concern is with the tandem low pressure centers evolving and deepening along the secondary off the Mid-Atlantic that we`ll see strong deformational banding on the backside in a region of dynamic cooling and steep mid-level lapse rates supportive of upright-convection / thundersnow. Per the HWRF / HRRR / NCAR ensembles, reason to believe that this band has the potential of producing 1-3"/hr snowfall rates where snow-ratios modify higher with the influx of colder air, winds picking up out of the W behind the band such that considering the fluffy snow we could be dealing with blowing and drifting, potential for near-blizzard criteria with white-out conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 38 degrees in manomet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, ice1972 said: I’m not so sure the precip is making it totally to the ground.....we’ve been under blue to green returns most of the way from orange to Berlin and it hasn’t been snowing the whole time and wasn’t that heavy..... It's snowing at a decent clip just west of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 0z GFS is pretty aggressive with that mix line. Hopefully wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'll take the RGEM in a heartbeat. Also, a Maine demolisher. I hope it will have all blown off my porch when i get up there tomorrow night. 25.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 0z GFS is pretty aggressive with that mix line. Hopefully wrong. Seems to have backed off a little from 18z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Latest hrrr has my shorts off. Gfs cooled too. Its pretty evident west of the river in CT and into NCT and MA on N/NE is in for a memorable Christmas quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The primary is certainly developing fairly rapidly (looks like 3mb in the past 2 hour) but the secondary is developing just as rapidly with a 2mb drop in the past 2 hours. We have a very broad 925mb circulation going but winds are predominately east right now (the surge of the warmth is more south) and the 850mb circulation has yet to become established. I think the colder solutions may end up working out here b/c this cold air mass isn't easily going to be pushed out and this thing could be moving quickly enough to where by the time it develops the surge of warmth further inland gets cut off and other processes begin taking over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Steady light snow in Middletown now. Ground already whitened. 32F. Other than a dusting in 2012, this is the only time I can remember snow on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 10 pm update... Storm taking aim on S New England. Primary low over the E Great Lakes meeting up with secondary energy off the Mid-Atlantic. The E inflow apparent as pressure falls begin to emerge. The parent H5 trof beginning to undergo a negative-tilt as the parent potent vortmax rounds through the base increasing the cyclonic curvature. QG-forcing just starting to emerge, frontogenesis and moisture convergence pulling together and tightening, deformation evolving. Anticipating a system that will pack a wallop across S New England tonight going into Monday. Expanded winter weather headlines. The storm system expected to over-perform, the concern is with the tandem low pressure centers evolving and deepening along the secondary off the Mid-Atlantic that we`ll see strong deformational banding on the backside in a region of dynamic cooling and steep mid-level lapse rates supportive of upright-convection / thundersnow. Per the HWRF / HRRR / NCAR ensembles, reason to believe that this band has the potential of producing 1-3"/hr snowfall rates where snow-ratios modify higher with the influx of colder air, winds picking up out of the W behind the band such that considering the fluffy snow we could be dealing with blowing and drifting, potential for near-blizzard criteria with white-out conditions Sweet read! Per the RGEM snowfall map, we pick up 3" between 7-8. I'm glad it will be daylight for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Coming down really good now, everything coating up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Where's James? My lightning tracker shows a strike out near yarmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Thunderblizzard said: Coming down really good now, everything coating up quickly. Thunderblizzard, how ironic a title considering the NWS headlines above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, #NoPoles said: Where's James? My lightning tracker shows a strike out near yarmouth maybe he was a casualty of the strike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Sweet read! Per the RGEM snowfall map, we pick up 3" between 7-8. I'm glad it will be daylight for that. yeah that afd right there is pure wx porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'm sure this was posted in some thread or another: https://www.weather.gov/box/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Thunderblizzard, how ironic a title considering the NWS headlines above. Maybe I'll be able to point to my username as the current conditions tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 For S NH, especially the closer you are to the coast, RAP and HRRR are both looking excellent to meet GYX's forecast of 6-10". Nasty wind gusts during midday tomorrow, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Let me guess, Sipperel wrote that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2-4" BOS. I think this surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 not blowing up the sled yet long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 17 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: Seems to have backed off a little from 18z though. OK, I didn't see 18z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 northern HFD Cty...can you ask for anyone better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 10 pm update... Storm taking aim on S New England. Primary low over the E Great Lakes meeting up with secondary energy off the Mid-Atlantic. The E inflow apparent as pressure falls begin to emerge. The parent H5 trof beginning to undergo a negative-tilt as the parent potent vortmax rounds through the base increasing the cyclonic curvature. QG-forcing just starting to emerge, frontogenesis and moisture convergence pulling together and tightening, deformation evolving. Anticipating a system that will pack a wallop across S New England tonight going into Monday. Expanded winter weather headlines. The storm system expected to over-perform, the concern is with the tandem low pressure centers evolving and deepening along the secondary off the Mid-Atlantic that we`ll see strong deformational banding on the backside in a region of dynamic cooling and steep mid-level lapse rates supportive of upright-convection / thundersnow. Per the HWRF / HRRR / NCAR ensembles, reason to believe that this band has the potential of producing 1-3"/hr snowfall rates where snow-ratios modify higher with the influx of colder air, winds picking up out of the W behind the band such that considering the fluffy snow we could be dealing with blowing and drifting, potential for near-blizzard criteria with white-out conditions Wiz has been on that for a couple hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 wowe...went outside to grab my camcorder from the car and its white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Very light snow now, looks like some more good stuff coming up soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 This is almost an hour old but it illustrates the point but we're really beginning to see things blossom up a bit within the WAA regime. Really strong WAA occurring overhead and overriding a pretty cold airmass. This initial WAA stuff could surprise for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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