Wonderdog Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I'm beginning to feel that we will score with this first one later this week. I liked seeing the LP off the coast. Plenty of time to curve more along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Bob < actually they have taken another step in the wrong direction > Bob LoL. Just on me man....funny AF Nope, gefs flipped us an extra dime. @ 15:1 that's an extra 1.5" of digital snow. Happy hour wasn't top shelf margs but it was at least room temp Corona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 24 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS is better. Much better. Nearly 0.4" of liquid for DC. With hopefully high ratios, we could be talking about a moderate snow event DT hasn't given up yet either. I mean, he's sticking to what he said, but at least he hasn't jumped ship He leaves out DC, C.MD, NVA, WVA. That is by design. He knows it has a suppressed look that favors those areas. He hasn't jumped ship but he is steering it on a different course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: He leaves out DC, C.MD, NVA, WVA. That is by design. He knows it has a suppressed look that favors those areas. He has jump d ship but he is steering it on a different course. When it looked worse this morning he said that significant snow North of DC and Philly is not out of the question. He clearly has a big range, since this event could easily shape up to be like Dec 8-9 event. Back and forth within 48 hours even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: When it looked worse this morning he said that significant snow North of DC and Philly is not out of the question. He clearly has a big range, since this event could easily shape up to be like Dec 8-9 event. Back and forth within 48 hours even. Ok. Maybe so. No idea what will happen but my confidence would be more with the areas he mentions above. We will know soon enough. The after action report on these events will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: LoL. Just on me man....funny AF Nope, gefs flipped us an extra dime. @ 15:1 that's an extra 1.5" of digital snow. Happy hour wasn't top shelf margs but it was at least room temp Corona. Lol let's hope that Santa brings some top shelf liquor on tonight's 00z runs while he is out delivering presents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Jokes aside, here's my thoughts. Psu prob in the same frame.... The entire setup has changed drastically in 48 hours. We see this often crossing under 120 hours. The old overunning shellacking runs are almost certainly over. Guidance is converging on a northern stream domination. The dig in the west look is gone too so we have a couple things to consider. The pac sw is still coming but not much room to amplify. The northern stream hammer is on the way too. I guess that's been on the way the whole time and that's where the ridiculous cold ens mean temps are coming from. What to watch... the easiest way to get at least a light event is for the southern wave to tick north and not get torn up/reorganized by the northern stream before it gets here. I'm actually leaning on that working out in some fashion. The 3 events this year that started south or unamplified ended up trending good right until game time. 18z gefs started to confirm my thoughts that this might happen. We have 4-5 days to go. Plenty of time to watch for this. The northern stream is starting to look really amped. Euro certainly showed this and gfs made a move at 18z. It's possible to miss the southern wave completely and still get a light event from just the northern stream. The streams might interact favorably and we get a moderate event. A mini 1-2 progression. Of course it's possible they interact in a perfect way to royally screw us but no sense discussing that. Lol How do we get a big event? Pretty much need to root for a Philly or NYC nuke and get good scraps of a really big storm. Doesn't look like enough room for the southern wave to get rocking anymore all by itself for anyone. A moderate event sure, 1'+ is probably out of reach but I hope I eat those words Outside chance the northern stream digs deep and does a partial phase with the southern wave and happens far enough south for us to get into coastal development. This seems like the lowest probability of all outcomes but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 54 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: It's been way too long since we've had anything resembling the cold stretch like the winter of '77, and though I want snow as much as the next person, I have some really great memories from that winter. Make it happen. Good lord no, hard pass from me. Deep cold and massive heating bills with little snow is the suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Alright folks lets will this home. We got 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I think it's safe to say that in the next 2-3 weeks we'll track at least 7 or 8 events, and I think we'll score on 3 or 4 of them. Fun times ahead . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Jokes aside, here's my thoughts. Psu prob in the same frame.... The entire setup has changed drastically in 48 hours. We see this often crossing under 120 hours. The old overunning shellacking runs are almost certainly over. Guidance is converging on a northern stream domination. The dig in the west look is gone too so we have a couple things to consider. The pac sw is still coming but not much room to amplify. The northern stream hammer is on the way too. I guess that's been on the way the whole time and that's where the ridiculous cold ens mean temps are coming from. What to watch... the easiest way to get at least a light event is for the southern wave to tick north and not get torn up/reorganized by the northern stream before it gets here. I'm actually leaning on that working out in some fashion. The 3 events this year that started south or unamplified ended up trending good right until game time. 18z gefs started to confirm my thoughts that this might happen. We have 4-5 days to go. Plenty of time to watch for this. The northern stream is starting to look really amped. Euro certainly showed this and gfs made a move at 18z. It's possible to miss the southern wave completely and still get a light event from just the northern stream. The streams might interact favorably and we get a moderate event. A mini 1-2 progression. Of course it's possible they interact in a perfect way to royally screw us but no sense discussing that. Lol How do we get a big event? Pretty much need to root for a Philly or NYC nuke and get good scraps of a really big storm. Doesn't look like enough room for the southern wave to get rocking anymore all by itself for anyone. A moderate event sure, 1'+ is probably out of reach but I hope I eat those words Outside chance the northern stream digs deep and does a partial phase with the southern wave and happens far enough south for us to get into coastal development. This seems like the lowest probability of all outcomes but not impossible. Great analysis. We always run the risk of failing. Nature of the beast. Good news is their are lots of ways for us to score something. I’m focusing on the positive options until the models crush all my dreams and/or the Christmas spirit wears off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Some interesting changes showing up on ens late in their runs... gefs joined the eps with pushing back any meaningful flip to warm through the ends of their runs. If you believe the mean temps...we are below normal for 15-16 straight days. If we are below normal for that long, no way we don't at the very least luck into a couple events. When is the last time we went BN for 2 straight weeks during met winter? 13-15 was too progressive for that IIRC. I don't think we logged 15 straight days but we might have. Dec-Jan 10-11 had prolonged cold but don't remember details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: LoL. Just on me man....funny AF Nope, gefs flipped us an extra dime. @ 15:1 that's an extra 1.5" of digital snow. Happy hour wasn't top shelf margs but it was at least room temp Corona. Only because I know you will laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 30 minutes ago, BristowWx said: He leaves out DC, C.MD, NVA, WVA. That is by design. He knows it has a suppressed look that favors those areas. He hasn't jumped ship but he is steering it on a different course. The northern stream mauler clearly favors Upstate NY and SNE and NNE . For NYC-Richmond, it's unclear how badly the late phase and Miller B dryslot will screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 January 1977 was fairly refreshing cold. I was 13. I remember being out on a jebwalk, walking on Dale Blvd past Forestdale Plaza, this was back when that bank had a digital thermometer, and feeling amazed at the reading of 4 degrees! It was about 7pm. It was the first time I had ever seen a single digit reading on that bank thermo. It was a frigid period, but with little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some interesting changes showing up on ens late in their runs... gefs joined the eps with pushing back any meaningful flip to warm through the ends of their runs. If you believe the mean temps...we are below normal for 15-16 straight days. If we are below normal for that long, no way we don't at the very least luck into a couple events. When is the last time we went BN for 2 straight weeks during met winter? 13-15 was too progressive for that IIRC. I don't think we logged 15 straight days but we might have. Dec-Jan 10-11 had prolonged cold but don't remember details. Jan 29 to Feb 18, 2010 at DCA was all BN (21 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 What model is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I see jonjon lurking. What's the hap in snow country? Worth the drive this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, real said: What model is this? It's the WFS...Weenie Forecast Model...it's legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 January 77 was A O K in my book. Didn't seem snowless to me even though overall it was a dry pattern. There were several little clipper type storms that dropped an inch here, two inches there even in the middle of the day it was so damned cold. There was one decent 5 inch storm mixed in between which hit the spot nicely and never melted seemingly the whole month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It's the WFS...Weenie Forecast Model...it's legit Lol It's actually an experimental model run 4 times a day by IBM. Per Pann in his tweet responses fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 What model is this? Seems like IBM runs a model... think it's behind a paywall. Hard to find much info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, KingJWx said: Jan 29 to Feb 18, 2010 at DCA was all BN (21 days). Thanks. Makes sense with deep snowcover through the period. Then the switch flipped and we dripped and slushed and mudded for days and days. The coming period should be memorable cold if nothing else. Right in the heart of cold climo and low sun angle season. I doubt DCA stays below freezing for highs for 10-11 days like the ensembles show. Seems very unlikely. Iad/bwi may pull it off if we don't get a sunny day with south winds mixed in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: When is the last time we went BN for 2 straight weeks during met winter? 13-15 was too progressive for that IIRC. I don't think we logged 15 straight days but we might have. Dec-Jan 10-11 had prolonged cold but don't remember details. You were right; saved by one day in mid-February into March, 2015 : 2/22/15. Otherwise it would have been 20 days BN for both DCA and IAD, with 13 to 14 out of 20 days more than *ten* degrees below normal in that stretch. The legend of that mid-February to early March stretch will just grow over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Jokes aside, here's my thoughts. Psu prob in the same frame.... The entire setup has changed drastically in 48 hours. We see this often crossing under 120 hours. The old overunning shellacking runs are almost certainly over. Guidance is converging on a northern stream domination. The dig in the west look is gone too so we have a couple things to consider. The pac sw is still coming but not much room to amplify. The northern stream hammer is on the way too. I guess that's been on the way the whole time and that's where the ridiculous cold ens mean temps are coming from. What to watch... the easiest way to get at least a light event is for the southern wave to tick north and not get torn up/reorganized by the northern stream before it gets here. I'm actually leaning on that working out in some fashion. The 3 events this year that started south or unamplified ended up trending good right until game time. 18z gefs started to confirm my thoughts that this might happen. We have 4-5 days to go. Plenty of time to watch for this. The northern stream is starting to look really amped. Euro certainly showed this and gfs made a move at 18z. It's possible to miss the southern wave completely and still get a light event from just the northern stream. The streams might interact favorably and we get a moderate event. A mini 1-2 progression. Of course it's possible they interact in a perfect way to royally screw us but no sense discussing that. Lol How do we get a big event? Pretty much need to root for a Philly or NYC nuke and get good scraps of a really big storm. Doesn't look like enough room for the southern wave to get rocking anymore all by itself for anyone. A moderate event sure, 1'+ is probably out of reach but I hope I eat those words Outside chance the northern stream digs deep and does a partial phase with the southern wave and happens far enough south for us to get into coastal development. This seems like the lowest probability of all outcomes but not impossible. I haven't had time to dig very deep today but from what I have seen I co-sign your thoughts above. With the caveat that even though that is exactly how I see things trending also I also don't feel anything is locked in. A slight improvement from the northern stream and more amped stj and suddenly we have an event again. But I agree the big one is unlikely now. I also think at some point there is a good chance one of these things amps up and it's more likely the longer into this pattern we get. As it relaxes some inevitably there will be room to develop something. I'm also not shocked that guidance is delaying the pattern breakdown. That's typical. But usually it hurts us when we're stuck in a torch waiting for cold. I prefer this. Lastly Merry Christmas Bob. I enjoy these discussions and value your input greatly. I wish you all the best this holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Looking at the GEFS, there are a couple snowy solutions within 7 days 7/20 solutions show 5" or more for DC, which is pretty decent for 7 days out since now all solutions are narrowed on the potential of just 1 event during this timeframe. We may not be getting that HECS like we could've been tracking just 3 or 4 days ago, but 3-6" or even 6-10" is not out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: It's the WFS...Weenie Forecast Model...it's legit 1 hour ago, real said: What model is this? Based on the header Deep Thunder may be a configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) that is run at 15 km horizontal resolution in the region of interest (coarser resolution elsewhere) and uses the YSU PBL parameterization, WSM6 microphysics, RRTMG radiation, and Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization. Google MPAS for more information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lastly Merry Christmas Bob. I enjoy these discussions and value your input greatly. I wish you all the best this holiday. Merry Christmas to you too. I love these discussions as well and always enjoy the analysis. I look forward to it every year (for better or worse lol). It's a great mental exercise. Similar in some ways to what I do for a living but so much more fun. The late week deal is complicated. Totally different than the bread and butter overrunning we initially thought it was going to be. I doubt we know exactly what to root for until 72 hours out and even then there will be twists and turns if I had to guess. My bar is 2.3" and that should be well within the range of outcomes. If it's cold and higher ratio then .15-.20 qpf will get the job done. That's a very reasonable number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Looking at the GEFS, there are a couple snowy solutions within 7 days 7/20 solutions show 5" or more for DC, which is pretty decent for 7 days out since now all solutions are narrowed on the potential of just 1 event during this timeframe. We may not be getting that HECS like we could've been tracking just 3 or 4 days ago, but 3-6" or even 6-10" is not out of the question Surprisingly better than I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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